Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 11
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Manchester City vs Brighton
Manchester City -2 +165
Manchester City have fallen four points behind Arsenal after a loss away to Liverpool last weekend, but City have been extremely dominant this season, especially at home.
City are 5W-0D-0L at homef with a +15 goal difference. They have won four of their home games by three or more goals, including a dominant 6-3 win over rivals Manchester United. City face a Brighton side that started the season strongly but have gone a disappointing 0-2-2 in their last four matches, including a home draw against 19th-placed Nottingham Forest in their last match.
City have been blowing opponents out of the water in their home matches this season, and Brighton are not in good form. This has all the makings of an easy win for City.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United
Manchester United to win +250
United have had some drama this week with Cristiano Ronaldo's antics, and he will not be available against Chelsea. Ronaldo has started just two EPL matches and scored only one goal for United this season, so his play on the field will not be missed -- but perhaps the situation could impact the rest of the squad.
The Ronaldo situation is certainly worth keeping in mind, but the stats show this is an extremely even matchup. United are just one point behind Chelsea in the table and in terms of expected goal difference (xGD), they are only 0.9 expected goals behind Chelsea, per FBRef. United are 6-1-1 after losing their first two matches, and they boast wins over Tottenham and Arsenal, giving the Gunners their only blemish of the season thus far.
This game could go either way but with United at +250 to win, their odds are much more favorable from a betting perspective.
Tottenham vs. Newcastle
Newcastle are the best defensive team in the league so far this season, conceding just 9 goals in 11 matches. Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea are all tied for second with 10 goals conceded, and they have played one fewer match than the Magpies have, making Newcastle's defensive record even more impressive.
Newcastle have drawn 6 out of their 11 games, including draws against Manchester United and Manchester City. Tottenham are sandwiched between City and United in the table with a 7-2-2 record. Their xGD of just +4.0 is somewhat modest considering their place in the standings, and Newcastle are actually 4.3 goals ahead of Spurs by xGD.
This seems to be an evenly-matched game, with Newcastle playing to a ton of draws early this season. They have drawn three out of five away matches so far, and this game may very well make it four out of six.