FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/15/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Nottingham Forest (+420) at Wolves (-145)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Costa/Guedes (+180)
Bournemouth (+320) at Fulham (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (-110)
Everton (+600) at Tottenham (-210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -124 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (-110)
We've got a three-match main slate this week, and all three matches have a sizable favorite.
We have to start with Spurs, who are -210 to beat Everton and -175 to score at least two goals -- both of which are slate-best numbers. Spurs' attack hasn't been as high-flying as it was toward the end of last campaign -- when they netted at least three goals in 7 of their last 13 EPL matches -- but they offer big-time upside in this matchup as Everton have conceded the third-most expected goals (xG) in the EPL, per FBRef.
Harry Kane ($22; -110 to score/-185 to score or assist) and Son Heung-min ($20; +115/-180) figure to be immensely popular. They will likely be stacked together in a lot of lineups, and they both possess a slate-winning ceiling. When Spurs are going to be chalk, I usually like to use Son over Kane. They're both superb options, and Son typically isn't as popular as Kane is. Son has bounced back from a slow start to the year and has tallied two goals and an assist over his past two outings (across all competitions).
It's likely just one of Richarlison ($19; +170/+100) or Dejan Kulusevski ($18; +200/-115) -- the latter of whom is expected to be good to go -- gets into the starting XI. Whichever one does is a quality pick. We've seen Richarlison produce spike games this year, and Kulusevski did it last season. There's always a chance that the goal-scoring opportunities fall to one of them and not Son or Kane.
Wolves (-145 to win) and Fulham (-120) are also home favorites. Before digging in, I thought I'd prefer Fulham between the two, but the betting numbers give a slight edge to Wolves. Fulham are -118 to score two-plus goals while Wolves are -125 to do so. Both have a friendly matchup, but Wolves are in the slightly better spot as Forest have surrendered the third-most xG (16.2).
Wolves might find themselves in a relegation scrap if they don't pick it up, and this is a golden chance for them to rack up three points. Diego Costa ($16; +180/+110) has the top goal odds among Wolves' expected starters. Daniel Podence ($14; +270/+105) has good goal/assist odds at a modest salary, and Adama Traore ($9; +360/+135) is an excellent point-per-dollar option if he starts.
For Fulham, Aleksandar Mitrovic ($21; -110/-165) is the obvious top option if he's able to play. He's been excellent this season, scoring six goals, and he handles penalties. Bournemouth have allowed the fourth-most xG (14.6), too, so the matchup is there. As long as he is good fitness-wise, Mitrovic checks all the boxes and deserves to push Son and Kane for the slate's highest draft percentage. His goal odds tie Kane's for the slate's best.
If you want to pivot off the Mitrovic chalk or if Mitrovic can't go, you can turn to Neeskens Kabano ($10; +220/+115), Carlos Vinicius ($9; +175/+120), Dan James ($12; +260/+120) or Andreas Pereira ($13; +190/+130). As you can see, Fulham is a great place to go value hunting, and while Mitrovic missing the game would lower the team's ceiling, Fulham should still create chances even without its star man.
Bournemouth are the underdog who is most likely to score, and Domonic Solanke ($17; +240/+175) owns the Cherries' top goal and goal/assist odds.
Added time -- Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($14; +310/+230) sports the best goal and goal/assist odds for Everton. Tottenham have allowed at least two goals in four of their previous six matches in all comps. ... Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ($16; +600/+280) is a modest-salaried and contrarian way to get a piece of Tottenham.
The betting numbers really point to Ryan Sessegnon ($10; +135 to score/assist) and Ivan Perisic ($10; +140). Both have excellent goal/assist odds and figure to spend plenty of time in attacking areas versus Everton. They're outstanding stacking partners for Son and/or Kane, and their salaries are easy to get it.
On the flip side, Everton center-backs James Tarkowski ($14) and Conor Coady ($12) make sense, too, as floor plays. Tarkowski has been the same guy he was at Burnley, racking up points via defensive actions, and he's averaging 17.1 FanDuel points per game for the season.
Fulham's Kenny Tete ($13; +350) and Antonee Robinson ($10; +500) offer attacking juice in a soft home matchup, although Tete is an injury question mark. Tete has notched an assist in each of his previous two starts.
Added time -- Wolves' Nelson Semedo ($8; +500) and Jonny ($9; +310) are easy to like at their salaires. In a date with Forest, they'll likely have more chances than usual to push forward. I side with Jonny between the two. ... Forest's Steve Cook ($9) has scored at least 9.1 FanDuel points in five of his last six starts.
Hugo Lloris ($13) has the best win odds (-210) and the top clean-sheet odds (+105), but he's been hit or miss lately in DFS. Spurs have conceded at least two goals in four of their past six outings, and Lloris kept a clean sheet in the other two fixtures. The matchup is a good one as Everton have mustered just 9.9 xG through nine EPL matches.
While Lloris is a good play, I'm more interested in Wolves' Jose Sa ($12) and Bernd Leno ($11).
Sa is +120 to blank Nottingham Forest, and Leno is +165 to keep a clean sheet versus Bournemouth. The Cherries have been dreadful in attack, producing just 4.9 xG so far, which is a league-low mark by a mile. Forest have totaled 8.4 xG, the fourth-fewest. It's a great spot for both, and I'll have a lot of each. Whichever one I have, I will stacking them with a striker from their side.
Added time -- If Mitrovic doesn't play, Bournemouth's Neto ($9) becomes more appealing. He's just +370 to keep a clean sheet, though. ... Everton's Jordan Pickford ($7) is capable of a big day at Spurs. Tottenham's attack has underwhelmed at times, and if there's enough save volume, Pickford could post a decent score if he limits the damage to a goal or two. I think you can use him even in lineups where you have Spurs attackers. ... Wolves have the third-fewest xG (8.0), so Forest's Dean Henderson ($8) isn't a bad shout, especially if you're fading Wolves' attackers.