FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/30/21

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Chelsea (-270) at Newcastle (+750)
Over 2.5 Goals: -150 | Most Likely to Score: Havertz (+125)

Southampton (+130) at Watford (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Adams (+195)

Crystal Palace (+1700) at Manchester City (-700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -235 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (-115)

Brentford (+180) at Burnley (+165)
Over 2.5 Goals: +130 | Most Likely to Score: Wood (+165)

Brighton (+1100) at Liverpool (-440)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-195)

Manchester United (+135) at Tottenham (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: -138 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+115)

Positional Breakdown

Forwards/Midfielders

What a fun slate this is.

Five of the traditional big-six sides are in play, and the presence of so many top-notch players and big names should, for the most part, spread out draft percentages more than usual.

Chelsea (-270 to win), City (-700) and Liverpool (-440) are all big-time favorites, and each of them hit the -233 moneyline threshold for stacking, although the opportunity cost of stacking is fairly high given the amount of high-ceiling players all over the slate.

Even on a slate with this many good sides, City stand out from the Pack. Playing at home versus Crytal Palace. Pep Guardiola's team is -460 to score at least two goals and -140 to net three-plus, both of which are slate-best marks by a comfortable distance. If I stack any side, City will be it.

Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +175) is due for a ceiling game while Gabriel Jesus ($19; -115) carries City's best goal odds. If either Riyad Mahrez ($17; +115) or Raheem Sterling ($18; +105) get into the lineup, they'll be fantastic options at their salaries. Ilkay Gundogan ($15; +200) isn't a bad shout at his modest salary.

Liverpool are in red-hot form, and while Brighton won't be a pushover, the host Reds are -360 to score at least twice and -105 to get three. You'll want to get a piece of Liverpool.

You know earlier when I said draft percentages would likely be more spread out than usual? Mohamed Salah ($23; -195) is going to be the exception. The dude is in special form, scoring nine goals across his past seven EPL matches. He's put a whopping seven shots on target over the last two.

And yet, I'm very tempted to fade him. I am assuming Salah's draft percentage is going to be sky-high, and with so many good plays on this slate, I'm willing to take the risk. I think I can find points elsewhere to offset Salah as long as Salah doesn't go nuclear, which he very well could. Plus, I like the idea of getting Liverpool exposure through Diogo Jota ($20; +130), Sadio Mane ($19; +105) or Roberto Firmino ($18; +135).

Chelsea are the big favorite I'm least excited about. That's mostly due to fellow elites Liverpool and City being in better spots, but it's partially because Chelsea are sans Romelu Lukaku, Christian Pulisic and Timo Werner. With that said, the Blues still have a ton of attacking talent and are -240 to score two-plus goals at Newcastle, a side whose defense has shipped 20 goals through nine league matches.

Even with Lukaku and Werner out, Chelsea doesn't offer much value. Kai Havertz ($18; +125) has the Blues' top goal odds. Callum Hudson-Odoi ($18; +210) is salaried up after getting a goal last time out, and Mason Mount ($19; +230) will probably be the way most people get access to Chelsea after his hat trick last weekend. Hakim Ziyech ($16; +210) would be my favorite Chelsea play if he starts.

My common lineup build is going to dedicate one attacking spot to each of City, Chelsea and Liverpool while going bargain hunting at defender. That should leave a decent amount of salary for the fourth attacking spot, and there are so many good options to fill it. I will add a second Liverpool/City player to some lineups, but I'll look to the Spurs-Manchester United game in most of them.

The United-Spurs match is a tough one to predict all around. With each team struggling, any result seems possible, and the poor form of both along with this match being the lone late start could cause the players from this game to fly under the radar a bit.

But despite each team's struggles, there is a lot of attacking talent across the two sides, and the match is -138 to go over 2.5 goals. We should be very interested whenever there's a chance to get the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo ($22; +120), Harry Kane ($18; +115), Son Heung-Min ($19; +175) and Bruno Fernandes ($19; +175) at reasonable draft percentages. Kane is my pick of the bunch. I'd love to have the salary for Ronaldo, but I won't prioritize it and therefore probably won't have the coin.

Added time -- The Burnley-Brentford match is +130 to go over 2.5 goals and is by far the least appealing fantasy environment. However, Ivan Toney ($18; +175) and Chris Wood ($16; +165) have nice goal odds and will go overlooked. Toney is averaging 17.5 FanDuel points per game despite tallying just two goals. He's a fantastic tournament play. ... If any of Curtis Jones ($15; +330), Naby Keita ($13; +330) or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($11; +280) start, they need to be on our radar as lower-salary ways to get exposure to Liverpool. ... Che Adams ($14; +195) has the best goal odds in the Watford-Southampton fixture.

Defenders

As I mentioned above, I'm going to be looking to save salary at defender. There are likely going to be a lot of goals on this slate, and I want to prioritize getting four high-upside attackers, which means looking for value plays at defender.

There are some good high-salary defender plays, though, and if the masses load up on stud attackers, these guys could slip through the cracks.

Whoever starts at left-back for Chelsea between Marcos Alonso ($14) and Ben Chilwell ($15) might end up being the best way to get a piece of Chelsea. Playing against a Magpies side that is next to last in possession (40.3%), there will be chances to get forward. Alonso is +450 to score while Chilwell is +500 -- both of which are excellent numbers for a defender. Chilwell is on a heater, scoring 34.5, 41.9 and 41.6 FanDuel points over his last three. He's bagged a goal in each of those games, which won't last, but he's also created four chances and will always have a decent shot at the clean-sheet bonus.

City's Joao Cancelo ($13) is +550 to score and is averaging 17.1 FanDuel points per game, putting four shots on goal over his last two outings.

Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold ($14) is averaging 25.7 FanDuel points per game and leads the Reds in corners taken in addition to some free-kick duties. Center-back Virgil van Dijk ($11) is +470 to score.

As for low-salary plays, Brighton's Adam Webster ($7) is going to be a go-to guy for me if he starts at center-back. All of Brighton's center-backs should be very busy at Anfield, and Webster has the lowest salary of the three by $2. Palace's Marc Guehl ($10) totaled 13.0 FanDuel points at Liverpool earlier this season and is a safe bet for a similar output at City. Newcastle's Emil Krafth ($10) and Ciaran Clark ($8) are listed as expected starters at center-back. Krafth will attract attention after his huge 34.5-point day last match, but I prefer the salary savings Clark offers.

Clark and Webster will be my core pairing.

Added time -- If Oleksandr Zinchenko ($6) starts for City, I would be overweight on him. He's +500 to score, has nice clean-sheet odds and is $6. Yes, please. ... Brentford would likely give us a low-salary dart throw if Ethan Pinnock ($12) can't play. If Pinnock gives it a go, I won't be interested in him. ... Southampton's Valentino Livarmento ($12) got a goal last weekend in a 36.8-point outburst and has scored double-digit FanDuel points in every game but one.

Goalies

At the top of the goalie pool, the salaries follow the win and clean-sheet odds as it's Ederson ($14), Alisson ($13) and Edouard Mendy ($12). The clean-sheet odds for those guys are -122, +100 and +110, respectively. They're clearly the three top plays, and you can make a strong case for all of them.

If I have the salary for Ederson, he's my top pick. But I also like Mendy a lot, and if the $2 difference helps me get a meaningful upgrade in an attacking spot, I am good with landing on the Chelsea keeper. Newcastle have mustered just the third-most xG (9.5), per FBRef, while the Blues have conceded only three times in nine league games.

I do want to give Alisson a mention, because I can see him being the least popular of these three if people either prioritize getting up to Ederson or take the lowest-salaried of the three in Mendy. The Reds have given up just six goals in nine games and are looking like the well-oiled machine that steamrolled to the title not that long ago. Brighton are tied for the fourth-lowest xG (9.6) in attack. This is a great spot for Alisson to get a clean-sheet win.

Added time -- United are only +270 to keep a clean sheet, which makes David De Gea ($11) a blah pick. But Tottenham are tied for the fourth-fewest xG (9.6), and I could see United responding to last week's drubbing with a quality showing. Could also see them stinking again. ... Alvaro Fernandez ($5) is listed as the probable starter for Brentford, who are +210 to keep a clean sheet at Burnley. The matchup isn't bad, and if Fernandez starts, we have to at least consider him at the minimum salary. ... On the flip side of that match, Nick Pope ($10) has the best clean-sheet odds (+192) outside of the big three.