FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 10/30/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches.
Chelsea (-270) at Newcastle (+750)
Over 2.5 Goals: -150 | Most Likely to Score: Kai Havertz (+390)
Brighton (+1100) at Liverpool (-440)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 | Most Likely to Score: Mohamed Salah (-195)
Crystal Palace (+1700) at Manchester City (-700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -235 | Most Likely to Score: Gabriel Jesus (-115)
Brentford (+180) at Burnley (+165)
Over 2.5 Goals: +130 | Most Likely to Score: Chris Wood (+165)
Southampton (+130) at Watford (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Che Adams (+195)
Manchester United (+135) at Tottenham (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: -138 | Most Likely to Score: Harry Kane (+115)
Matchweek 10 features five big-six sides, with Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham, and Manchester United all in action on Saturday.
At -700 to win, Manchester City are the largest favorite on the slate, while Liverpool's Mohamed Salah ($23) has the best odds to score (-195) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Liverpool (-440 to win) are the second-biggest favorite behind Manchester City, with Chelsea (-270 to win) next in line behind them. Southampton (+135 to win), Manchester United (+135 to win), and Burnley (+165 to win) round out the slate.
Despite the presence of four other big-six sides, Manchester City still tower above the rest in terms of expected outcomes this weekend. However, they likely won't be as popular as they have been in previous slates due to the plethora of talent available throughout the player pool with so many big names in action on Saturday. City's stars also offer a salary discount relative to Salah and Cristiano Ronaldo ($22).
All in all, with so many stars on the pitch for this slate, this is shaping up to be one of the less concentrated slates in terms of popular plays. Don't worry too much about fading a specific big-six side.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Marcus Rashford, FWD/MID, Manchester United
FanDuel Salary: $17
Things are bad at Manchester United -- make no mistake. They come into this one winless in their last four Premier League fixtures after being humiliated by Liverpool last Sunday. Ole Gunner Solskjaer is on the brink of being sacked, while the team's backline is in absolute shambles, shipping 13 goals over their last six games, which is tied for worst in the league with Tottenham and Norwich.
The one thing United has going for them this weekend is that their own struggles have been so large that they may mask Tottenham's woes, which have been equally as bad. Spurs have two wins and four losses in their last six matches and have conceded the same number of goals as United while netting three fewer. Neither of these sides deserves the benefit of the doubt in terms of expecting a bounce back, but keep in mind -- as bad as United has been, Spurs have been worse over their last six matches.
Enter Marcus Rashford, who has been the lone bright spot for United since his season debut against Leicester as a substitute on October 16th.
Since his return, he has produced two goals, 10 shots, and three chances created in just 154 total minutes played over three fixtures. His salary of $17 is slightly depressed for his role, and United's horrid form and the presence of so many other stars on the slate should lead to him being overlooked this weekend.
Consider stacking him with an attacking player from Spurs and capitalizing on both sides' backlines.
Nathan Redmond, FWD/MID, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $16
Redmond enters Saturday with FanDuel point totals of 22.3 and 30.0 in his last two matches, with a combined two assists and nine chances created in that time. Redmond has operated as a forward in Southampton's 4-4-2 formation for each of their last three games, and he's excelled in all but one of those outings (a tough road loss to Chelsea).
Saturday brings a meeting with a Watford side that has conceded 17 goals so far this season, third-most in the Premier League. Southampton has been far from an offensive juggernaut, averaging less than a goal per match, but since they switched Redmond into the forward spot, the Saints have scored in each of their last three matches.
Usually, back-to-back performances like Redmond's would attract attention in a matchup like this, but the presence of so many high-profile teams and players should allow him to fly under the radar on Saturday. His salary of $16 falls directly into the midrange, which makes him a little awkward for those who opt for a stars-and-scrubs build. He has the form and matchup to deliver this weekend while all eyes are on the five big-six sides.
Ivan Toney, FWD/MID, Brentford
FanDuel Salary: $18
Toney has been one of the most consistent FanDuel point producers amongst forwards so far this season despite scoring only two goals. He enters this weekend in the midst of a four-game goal drought but has still managed FanDuel point totals of 24.2, 10.2, 17.5, and 18.2 over that stretch.
His consistency will likely be overshadowed by the other names in his salary range, which includes Kai Havertz ($18), Jack Grealish ($18), Gabriel Jesus ($18), Son Heung-Min ($19), Sadio Mane ($19), Bruno Fernandes ($19), and Mason Mount ($19).
Facing a winless Burnley side that has kept only a single clean sheet so far this season, Toney should have an opportunity to break his goal drought and deliver a ceiling-level performance against a beatable opponent.
On a smaller slate, he would likely be a somewhat popular inclusion in lineups, but Toney -- who takes pens for the Bees -- should get lost in the shuffle this weekend given all the quality alternatives.