FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 10/2/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features five matches.
Norwich (+330) at Burnley (-115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Wood (+105)
Southampton (+700) at Chelsea (-270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (-140)
Watford (+370) at Leeds (-135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -148 | Most Likely to Score: Rodrigo (+180)
Newcastle (+410) at Wolves (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (-120)
Arsenal (+145) at Brighton (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang/Lacazette (+175)
Matchweek 7 features two big-six sides, with Chelsea at home against Southampton and Arsenal on the road against Brighton. The slate has four home favorites, the most of any slate so far this season.
At -270 to win, Chelsea is the largest favorite on the slate, while Romelu Lukaku ($23) has the best odds to score at -140, followed closely by Wolves' Raul Jimenez at -120.
Wolves (-155 to win) trail behind Chelsea in win odds and are followed by Leeds (-135 to win). Burnley (-115 to win) and Arsenal (+145 to win) round out the slate.
This slate centers on Chelsea, who are looking to rebound after suffering their first loss of the Premier League campaign last week to Manchester City. While Chelsea is the largest favorite, the presence of three other home favorites, plus Arsenal, provides plenty of options for those wishing to fade the Blues. The slate is highlighted by an afternoon clash between Brighton and Arsenal, with Brighton looking to retain their position on the table (currently part of a five-way tie for second).
With that in mind, here are three players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Chris Wood, FWD/MID, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $20
The top of the forward/midfielder player pool this weekend is stacked with several strikers in good form and good matchups. Wood can claim the latter but not the former, scoring just one goal through five matches. But a meeting with Norwich is on the cards for Saturday.
Targeting Norwich has rarely failed up this point. Their 16 goals conceded through six matches is the most in the Premier League, and they have allowed multiple goals in all but one EPL match this season -- including five combined to Watford and Everton over their past two.
Given his lack of production so far this season, Wood's salary seems out of place among the other options at the top of the player pool, which should cause him to go a bit overlooked despite the perfect matchup.
Wood's struggles to start the year aren't for lack of trying -- he is averaging two shots, 0.83 shots on target, and 0.83 chances created per match. He has played more than 82 minutes in five of Burnley's six fixtures and started all of them. There won't be a better spot for him to get back on the scoresheet than at home against Norwich, and he has the opportunity to do so while possibly going largely overlooked.
Leandro Trossard, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $14
This is the big question for Saturday's slate -- have Arsenal turned the corner? After three losses to start the season, the Gunners have logged back-to-back-to-back wins, highlighted by a triumphant two-goal drubbing of Tottenham last weekend. When big-six sides start to gain momentum, they tend to get the benefit of the doubt that it will continue, but on the road against Brighton is a tricky fixture that has all the makings of a trap game for Arsenal.
Brighton dropped points for just the second time this season with their draw to Crystal Palace on Monday. They are averaging 1.3 goals per match and have been held off the scoresheet just once this season. Trossard has been a consistent presence in their early-season success, starting all six of their fixtures and playing the full 90 in each of their last four.
He started the season slowly but has turned things around of late, averaging 2.25 shots, 1.0 shots on goal, and 1.75 chances created per match over his last four starts. Even if Arsenal really has turned the corner, this could be a difficult fixture for them. Brighton is likely to go overlooked given Arsenal's reversal of form, but at a salary of just $14, Trossard is well worth consideration at home on Saturday.
Joshua King, FWD/MID, Watford
FanDuel Salary: $18
King makes back-to-back appearances in this piece as he finds himself in a good spot to produce for the second week in a row. He set up Watford's only goal in their 1-1 draw to Newcastle last weekend, netting 18.2 FanDuel points, his second straight game with at least 18 FanDuel points. A goal continues to elude him, with a scoring drought reaching back to 2019, but he remains heavily involved in Watford's attack.
Leeds are home favorites in this fixture, but there's plenty of reason for optimism for Watford. Leeds has conceded 14 goals this season, tied for second-most in the Premier League, and has yet to keep a clean sheet through six matches. They sit 18th on the league table with three losses and three draws, despite facing just two big-six sides. Watford has taken four points from their last two fixtures, with an average of two goals scored per match. This one could easily be closer than the odds indicate, and we could see goals on both sides.
King's salary of $18 is a bit on the high side given his goal drought, especially with the plethora of other options available on Saturday. It should allow him to fly mostly under the radar despite his recent performances. King's teammates Ismaila Sarr ($21) and Emmanuel Dennis ($16) are also worth consideration as they stand to benefit from this fantasy-friendly matchup.