College Football Single-Game Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/2/21 (Ole Miss at Alabama)
The southern United States revolves around the 3:30 pm eastern SEC football game on CBS. That is especially true when the Alabama Crimson Tide may potentially be vulnerable, and the Mississippi Rebels figure to at least give the reigning dynasty a challenge on Saturday. That type of fanfare and audience means that this single-game contest needed its own helper.
For those unfamiliar, single-game college football slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, roster construction instead features an "MVP" slot accompanied by four flex slots. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial to balance floor and ceiling for optimal lineup builds.
With that in mind, let's preview the single-game slate between Alabama and Ole Miss, and don't forget to enter the $25K CFB Wishbone contest on FanDuel!
Alabama is a 14.5-point favorite at home against Ole Miss for Saturday's game. The total is a whopping 79.5 due to the two high-powered offenses involved.
numberFire's model -- in a bizarre coincidence -- has plenty of conviction in this matchup. Our model has five out of five-star convictions in both Alabama to cover the 14.5-point spread, as well as under 79.5 total points for the game.
Beyond normal counting stats available here, these are the game's fantasy leaders in some advanced metrics entering the showdown:
|Yards Per Pass Attempt||Bryce Young (9.06)||Matt Corral (10.07)|
|Season Rush Attempts||Brian Robinson Jr. (37)||Jerrion Ealy (31)|
|Rush Share %||Brian Robinson Jr. (30.3%)||Jerrion Ealy (24.4%)|
|Targets||John Metchie III (29)||Dontario Drummond (26)|
|Target Share %||John Metchie III (23.8%)||Dontario Drummond (25.5%)|
|Receiving Yardage Share %||Jameson Williams (23.8%)||Dontario Drummond (33.6%)|
Bryce Young ($16,000): Although not the personal choice at MVP, both quarterbacks are fairly easy to jam into a FanDuel lineup, and over time, quarterback is the most stable position for volume. The million-dollar man has lived up to his billing as Alabama has pummeled their early-season competition. Young has completed 72.1% of his passes this season with a 9.06 yards per attempt figure, and truly, his skill weapons will give him wide-open touchdown opportunities most weeks. Young does not run (0.3 rush attempts per game), which would normally leave him off the radar from main slates, but he is a constant -- and a good one -- for the single-game format.
Matt Corral ($15,500): When looking at the game script, plus what numberFire expects, Corral is the top MVP choice personally. Ole Miss figures to be trailing much of the afternoon, and more of their star quarterback never feels like a bad thing. Most importantly, Corral is averaging 67.7 yards rushing this season across three games, and that figure has him pegged as a main slate focus as well. Alabama's staunch defense will be a challenge, but extra volume should offset the lack of expected efficiency in this one.
Dontario Drummond ($11,500): Just as the chart would indicate, Drummond is the top option in the Ole Miss passing game, and that makes him a top corollary option with his quarterback. The big-play threat has averaged over 10 yards per reception in each game this season. While touchdown regression would normally point against a guy with four scores in three games, Drummond's 6'1" frame just makes him a red-zone staple for the Rebels.
John Metchie III ($11,000): Largely regarded as Alabama's better pro receiving prospect (which is really irrelevant since they all go in the first round, now, right?), Metchie should have even better counting numbers moving forward. His 29 targets are 7 clear of the next highest Alabama pass-catcher (22), but Metchie has just 1 touchdown despite that. He is due for serious touchdown regression in an offense this efficient, and a 46.10 implied team total has plenty of room for touchdowns.
Jerrion Ealy ($9,500): More exposure to the heavy underdog is not ideal, but Ealy's salary is fair given his decent role in the Ole Miss backfield. It is a fairly even committee, but Ealy does lead with 24.4% of the rush attempts. In this spot, the optimal strategy is to find Ole Miss's best pass-catching back in what is expected to be a pretty severe deficit. However, Ealy is that for the Rebels, as he has a backfield-high three targets in each of the past two games. His pass-catching skills may allow him an even larger role Saturday.
Jace McClellan ($9,000): If Brian Robinson Jr. ($10,500) is limited in any way with his rib injury, McClellan should be the beneficiary. McClellan is listed second on the depth chart and received 12 carries last week compared to Roydell Williams ($8,000), who saw just 11. If the lead is as expected for Alabama, this entire backfield becomes a wild card with Robinson likely not being pushed hard off his injury. Williams may be more popular due to his higher per-carry output last week and a lower salary, but McClellan should at least get the first crack at backup repetitions.
Braylon Sanders ($7,500): Sanders is likely the third option in Ole Miss's passing game behind Drummond and Jonathan Mingo ($10,000), but the big-play senior could be worth a dice roll. He may have some upside beyond his box score due to just a 50% target conversion rate, as he is getting more work than the eight catches in 2021 would otherwise state. Sanders has touchdowns in back-to-back games and is averaging 16.7 yards per reception this season. So, if looking for a salary-saving option with upside, he certainly fits the criteria.