FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 11/21/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Brighton at Aston Villa||Villa (+120)||-136||Watkins (+130)|
|Manchester City at Tottenham||Man City (-125)||-178||Aguero (-120)|
|West Brom at Manchester United||Man United (-340)||-154||Rashford (-105)|
Manchester United are the go-to stack on this slate as the Red Devils are -340 home favorites against West Brom. While United are just 12th in expected goal differential this season, per FBRef, West Brom are dead last in that metric. The Baggies have conceded 17 goals in eight league games, including three to Leicester, three to Chelsea and five to Everton.
Marcus Rashford ($20; -105 anytime goal odds) has the best goal-scoring odds on Manchester United and is expected to be fit for this weekend. Bruno Fernandes ($22; +200) possesses an elite floor/ceiling combination. These two are tied for the team lead in shots on target (seven).
Fernandes has three goals and five assists and has handled all three of United's EPL spot kicks, converting two. He's also the Red Devils' primary corner taker and has recorded 5.06 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes. Fernandes' all-around ability has helped him produce at least 22.6 FanDuel points in every match but one.
Mason Greenwood ($16; +130) hasn't maintained his sparkling form from the end of last season, but the goal odds are there. The same can be said for Anthony Martial ($17; +165). I like both as bet-on-talent pivots away from Rashford, and if Man United dominate, they should be involved.
Manchester City-Tottenham is the headline match of the day. City are -125 favorites, and the game is a slate-best -178 to see more than 2.5 goals. We have high-upside options on both sides, and I lean toward the City attackers, though I'll likely have exposure to both squads.
Sergio Aguero ($20; -120) may play and has the best goal odds on the slate. If Aguero doesn't go, it should open the door for Gabriel Jesus ($21; +115) to start in a number-nine role, possibly alongside Ferran Torres ($16; +210) and Raheem Sterling ($19; +120). Sterling is a slight injury concern, too, coming off an international break. Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +175) is a fantastic play, per usual. KDB is averaging 23.8 FanDuel points per game despite scoring only one goal this campaign.
On the Tottenham side, Harry Kane ($20; +140) and Son Heung-Min ($19; +200) are worth checking out. Man City have shored up some of their defensive issues from earlier this season, surrendering only four goals in their past nine matches across all competitions, but Kane is on fire, netting six goals with three assists over his past five EPL outings.
The Brighton-Aston Villa game is the tightest affair, per oddsmakers. Villa are slight +120 favorites. Brighton and Villa have been two of the EPL's better teams this season going by expected goal differential, tying for fifth with a clip of 2.2.
Aston Villa's Jack Grealish ($17; +210) and Ollie Watkins ($18; +130) are the two guys I'll have the most shares of from this clash. Watkins has the match's best goal odds and has scored three times in the last two games. He's taken Villa's lone penalty in EPL play. Grealish looked like England's best player over the international break, and he's averaging 30.9 FanDuel points per game for the season. Grealish has registered 5.29 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes.
Added time -- Don't sleep on Brighton's Neal Maupay ($17; +145). The Seagulls have been very unlucky this season by expected goals, and Maupay's +145 goal odds are pretty dope. He'll likely be a contrarian play. ... Ross Barkley ($15; +310) has been one of the main corner takers for Villa, and he paces the side in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, at 5.80.
I normally like to go after low-salary defenders on underdogs. That's not going to work on this slate unless we get some unexpected starting lineups. For one, there's only one big underdog (West Brom), and Semi Ajayi ($7) is their lone projected starting defender with a salary under $11. If you think Spurs get pinned back by City, Eric Dier ($8) fits this mold.
Alex Telles ($13; +430) stands out among the attacking full-backs. He should be locked into a starting role with Luke Shaw injured, and Telles' goal odds are excellent for a defender. Telles hasn't yet played an EPL match this campaign, but he was credited with three key passes and three shot-creating actions in a UCL match at PSG. He may slip through the cracks a bit on this slate due to his lack of action, and he's a great play against West Brom.
Joao Cancelo ($14) has been good for City this season, averaging 22.3 FanDuel points per game in the league while creating 11 chances in three games. He's a fun stacking partner with any of City's forwards.
Villa's Matt Targett ($9) has been a steady producer at left-back. He's scored at least 7.6 FanDuel points in every game, and he's done that without notching an assist or putting a shot on goal. The assists will come if he keeps creating chances, something he's done well of late with five total chances created across his last two outings.
Added time -- Ruben Dias ($9) has posted at least 9.1 FanDuel points in four of his five games. He'd likely need a goal to really hit, but he's capable of a decent fantasy day at a modest salary in a match in which City may have to defend a little more than they normally do. ... Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($14) is much better defending than he is going forward. That's not great for his fantasy outlook against West Brom, and the salary is up there. On the bright side, AWB should be able to get forward a ton in this match, and he'll likely be a fade for most people.
David de Gea ($14) has the best win odds (-340) as well as the best clean-sheet odds (-110). No other goalie is better than +215 to keep a clean sheet, so the appeal here is obvious. The negatives are that his salary tops the position by $2, and he likely won't have much save volume to fall back on if he concedes a goal. Still, DDG will be a priority for me in lineups due to the matchup with a West Brom side that is last in expected goals (4.7).
Ederson ($9) actually has the second-best clean-sheet odds (+215), and his salary is easy to stomach. As I mentioned earlier, City have righted the ship defensively, with the arrival of Dias having a big impact.
At +220 to keep a clean sheet, Emiliano Martinez ($12) deserves a shout, too. Villa are only slight favorites, but he could see decent save volume. Martinez has four clean sheets in seven matches, and he's had to make at least two stops in five of seven games.
Added time -- Mat Ryan ($8) makes sense as a dart throw, especially if you don't roster any Villa attackers. Brighton are +210 to win and +350 to keep a clean sheet. Those aren't great numbers, obviously, but they're not horrible for $8.