FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 11/21/20
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, November 21st|
|Brighton at Aston Villa|
|Manchester City at Tottenham|
|West Brom at Manchester United|
Matchweek 9 features three-big six sides with Manchester United, Manchester City, and Tottenham all in action coming off the international break. Playing at home, United (-320) are the largest favorites on the slate, followed by Manchester City (-125), who are road favorites against Tottenham. Aston Villa (+115) round out the slate as slight home favorites over Brighton.
Coming out of the break, both United and City should field strong sides this weekend, but each team will also have an eye on their Champions League matches next week. If things go smoothly, stars from both sides could be substituted somewhat early to prepare them for midweek clashes in Europe.
For large-field tournaments, Bruno Fernandes ($22) and Kevin De Bruyne ($22) figure to be the most popular plays on the slate. Fading both is incredibly risky because neither is as goal dependent as a typical high-salaried striker, and both are the primary option on penalties for their teams. Instead, most DFS managers will likely be forced to select one or the other, and then shape their approach from there.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Ilkay Gundogan, FWD/MID, Manchester City
FanDuel Salary: $11
De Bruyne's popularity should draw attention away from City's other midfielders as the majority of lineups may opt to stack him with a forward and ignore Gundogan and Rodrigo ($9). Gundogan is an excellent inclusion in lineups that include Bruno Fernandes and fade De Bruyne, as he provides cheap exposure to City while leveraging off of City's most popular star.
Gundogan has a limited ceiling, but on a short slate, that's less of an obstacle. He still possess goal-scoring upside, totaling two goals from his five starts this season, operating as a central-mid in City's 4-3-3 formation. Removing a tight clash against Liverpool, Gundogan has nine shots across four starts this season with four chances created.
Tottenham enter this fixture in a good run of form, with five wins over their last six matches, including three in a row. They have enjoyed a fairly easy schedule to start the season, with just a single match against a big-six opponent, which was a thumping victory over Manchester United. This fixture with City will be Spurs' toughest task of the season, and it comes at a time when City are rounding into form, with an undefeated streak of nine games.
This all sets up nicely Gundogan, who should fly-under-the-radar with the attention firmly on KDB.
Fred, FWD/MID, Manchester United
FanDuel Salary: $8
On the red side of Manchester, Fred has a similar outlook this weekend as the forgotten man in United's midfield. There is uncertainty over what United's midfield will look like against West Brom, but the most likely outcome is a combination of Fernandes, Fred, and either Paul Pogba ($14), Juan Mata ($9), or Scott McTominay ($11). The more defensive-minded McTominay would afford Fred some freedom to move forward, while Pogba and Mata in the starting XI could result in Fred being asked to stay further back.
Fred hasn't demonstrated a high ceiling during his time at United, but he did string together four consecutive performances (across all competitions) of 10-plus FanDuel points in October. Even when operating as defensive-mid, he has placed four shots on goal so far this season, and his low salary helps you jam in studs elsewhere.
The matchup against West Brom is an exceptional one for United. The Baggies are tied with Leeds for the most goals conceded so far this season with 17, and 10 of those have come on the road, where they are allowing an average of 2.5 goals per fixture. United have had a mixed bag of results recently, with victories over PSG, RB Leipzig and Everton, and defeats to Istanbul Basaksehir and Arsenal. But on the whole, they are a more dangerous side than they were in their early games this season.
United's stars will be popular -- and rightfully so -- but this matchup sets up well for anyone who draws a start for the Red Devils on Saturday, including Fred.