FanDuel Soccer: EPL Under-the-Radar Plays for 10/3/20
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, October 3rd|
|Brighton at Everton|
|Manchester City at Leeds|
|Burnley at Newcastle|
Matchweek 4 features a single big-six side in Manchester City. Last season's runners-up have an implied win probability of 73.7%, the largest on the slate, on the road against Leeds. Everton has the second-highest implied win probability at 55.6% at home against Brighton, followed by Newcastle (40.8%) at home versus Burnley.
City's implied win total is the largest on the slate, but it pales in comparison to some of their larger implied win total from previous seasons. That said, Leeds has been terrible at the back so far this campaign, conceding three goals apiece to Liverpool and Fulham. Manchester City's recent three-goal loss to Leicester City could slightly reduce their ownership in an otherwise excellent situation this weekend, but they should still be the most popular side by a wide margin.
Fading City is a risky proposition, but one reason to consider it is Everton's recent play combined with an excellent matchup of their own against a Brighton side that has conceded three goals apiece to Manchester United and Chelsea this season. Everton offers a solid alternative for lineups wishing to move away from Manchester City while maintaining similar upside.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Kalvin Phillips, FWD/MID, Leeds
FanDuel Salary: $12
Phillips has been excellent for Leeds to start the season, recording more than 20 FanDuel points in each of their three games so far, including a 23.4-point performance against Liverpool. Against lesser opposition, Phillips would likely be a very popular value play, but going against Manchester City this weekend, he will probably be less popular than his recent play suggests he should be.
While Manchester City is likely to rebound with a strong performance on Saturday, they are coming off a game in which they conceded five goals to Leicester City, and they have kept just one clean sheet through four games across all competitions this season. Leeds has struggled at the back this season, but their eight goals scored is tied with Everton for third-best in the Premier League. There could be goals on both sides of this fixture, with Manchester City popular and Leeds forgotten about despite their recent play and very friendly salaries.
At a salary of $12, Phillips remains a great value option even in a difficult matchup. Consider pairing him with City stacks to gain exposure to both sides of this fixture.
Leandro Trossard, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $15
Everton's excellent start to the season may overshadow Brighton's chances this weekend and lower the popularity on their more consistent options, like Trossard. Everton is undefeated in their three Premier League fixtures, but they've conceded three goals over their last two fixtures, including two to a struggling West Brom side.
Brighton has only one win from their first three but was unlucky in a difficult loss to Manchester United last weekend. They have managed five goals over their last two fixtures, and if it wasn't for a late turnaround by United, they could be sitting as high as eighth on the league table. Brighton are underdogs this weekend, but they've been a better side so far than the public might think and could surprise against Everton.
Trossard has looked very similar to Phillips, with 24-plus FanDuel points in his first two fixtures and double-digit points in all three. He's registered a shot on goal and at least two chances created in each match this season, with a goal or an assist in two of the three. Like Phillips, Trossard is a value at this salary and a solid option for tournaments this weekend as the majority of lineups look to the Everton side of this fixture.