FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/3/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Brighton at Everton||Everton (-135)||-116||Calvert-Lewin (+105)|
|Manchester City at Leeds||Man City (-300)||-280||Sterling (-115)|
|Burnley at Newcastle||Newcastle (+145)||+138||Wilson (+155)|
At -280 to see at least three goals, the Man City-Leeds matchup should be extremely fantasy-friendly. As we saw in Leeds' 4-3 season-opening loss at Anfield, they're going to play their game and go right at the big boys, which should make for another open affair. There have been 11 total goals scored in City's two EPL matches, while there have been 15 goals in Leeds' three league games. Yes, please. The match is actually -104 to go over 3.5 goals, so you have to get some exposure to it.
City are the slate's biggest favorite (-300), and Raheem Sterling ($20; -115) has the slate's best anytime goal odds. With Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero out, Sterling played in a number-nine role last weekend. Kevin De Bruyne ($23; +120), Riyad Mahrez ($22; +145) and Phil Foden ($16; +175) also started in attacking spots in City's last game, and each would be in play against Leeds if they're in the starting XI. City's penalty, corner and free-kick taker, KDB has the best floor in EPL DFS, and he should find himself in advantageous situations when City get through Leeds' press.
City gave up a goal at Wolves and five at home versus Leicester, so we can feel great about using Leeds' attackers, too. Patrick Bamford ($17; +210) has the best goal odds for The Whites while Rodrigo Moreno ($13; +290) could start up top alongside Bamford. Mateusz Klich ($15; +430) and Stuart Dallas ($10; +600) were in attacking-midfield roles last time out in a 3-1-4-2 formation.
How good have Everton looked so far this year? They knocked off Spurs in London in Matchweek 1, and they've picked up wins over West Brom (5-2) and Crystal Palace (2-1) since, in addition to victories over Fleetwood Town (5-2) and West Ham (4-1) in the League Cup. The Toffees' +5.0 expected goal differential in EPL play -- per FBRef -- is second to only Liverpool's, and Everton are -135 favorites Saturday against Brighton.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($20; +105) has been in dazzling form, scoring five goals in three league games while adding three more goals in the Carabao Cup. James Rodriguez ($17; +250) is red-hot, too, totaling 15.3, 34.3 and 21.5 FanDuel points in three matches despite not getting a goal or assist in two of the outings. His role on set pieces has helped him create 10 chances, and he's a great stacking piece if you want to stack Everton.
While James and Calvert-Lewin are great choices, they'll likely be very popular, so I'll be looking to roster Richarlison ($19; +125). The Brazilian has taken -- and cashed -- Everton's lone penalty in league play, and he's got solid goal odds. He's added two assists in addition to one goal.
Let's quickly touch on the Burnley-Newcastle fixture, which is only +138 to go over 2.5 goals. These two sides are on the opposite ends of the expected goals luck spectrum so far, with Burnley unlucky and Newcastle pretty fortunate. Newcastle are a slight favorite, and the Magpies' Callum Wilson ($18; +155) profiles as a GPP swing play. His salary puts him among some of the slate's more appealing options, and I think the masses will load up on City, Everton and (to a lesser extent) Leeds. Wilson has taken Newcastle's only penalty.
Added time -- Burnley's Chris Wood ($16; +165) isn't going to see a high roster percentage, and the goal odds aren't too bad. He's bagged one goal through two EPL outings, and he's totaled four shots. ... Bernardo Silva ($15; +190) appears to be getting fit for City. He played 27 minutes in midweek cup action. If he starts at Leeds, Silva would be worth considering. Same goes for Ferran Torres ($13; +200) if he gets his first league start for City.
Leeds' defenders have been solid floor options so far as all three of their expected starters -- Luke Ayling ($13), Robin Koch ($10) and Liam Cooper ($7) -- are averaging at least 10.3 FanDuel points per game. They should be busy against City, and I'll be looking to save some coin at defender, which makes Koch and Cooper enticing.
Lucas Digne ($15) is +750 to score, which is pretty good for a defender, and his set-piece duties give him a nice floor/ceiling combination. He's a fine stacking piece with either Calvert-Lewin or Richarlison, and Everton are a slate-best +142 to keep a clean sheet.
Tariq Lamptey ($13) has been superb at right-back for Brighton. He's averaging 12.9 FanDuel points per game, tallying an assist and two chances created. He should be busy defensively against Everton while also having some opportunities to run into space behind Digne on counters.
Added time -- Newcastle have +154 odds to keep a clean sheet, and Jamal Lewis ($8) should be able to get forward against Burnley. ... Ben White ($7) is a low-salary expected starter for Brighton. He's scored at least 10.8 FanDuel points in two of his three outings this season.
The best clean-sheet odds (+142) belong to Jordan Pickford ($12). On the flip side, the Toffees have given up three combined goals to Palace and West Brom over their last two league games. But the salary is modest, and Pickford has a good shot at a win.
Ederson ($13) is definitely a scary proposition with Man City's backline in disarray, but the potential return of center-back Aymeric Laporte would be a big boost for Ederson (and City). City's clean-sheet odds (+146) are nearly as good as Everton's, and the win odds (-300) are much better. Leeds' aggressive approach should give Ederson a better save-volume floor than usual in the event that he gives up a goal. I like Ederson on this slate.
Added time -- The Burnley-Newcastle match is a fine place to go clean-sheet hunting as neither attack is all that good. While Karl Darlow ($11) has the better clean-sheet odds (+154), I like Nick Pope ($7) better. Burnley's clean-sheet odds aren't too shabby (+205), and Pope's salary helps you everywhere else.