Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 4
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Everton vs. Brighton
Brighton +1 (no push) +105
Brighton has started the year 1W-0D-2L, but that is somewhat expected considering they played against Chelsea and Manchester United in two of their first three games. Despite this difficult schedule, Brighton has actually outshot their opponents in all three games, and they rank fourth in the league by FBref’s expected goal differential.
Everton have gotten off to a perfect 3-0-0 start, and they have also outshot their opponents in all three matches thus far. However, Everton have not played quite as difficult of a schedule, having faced newly promoted West Brom, Crystal Palace (14th place in last year’s table) and Tottenham (6th).
Everton are off to a great start and deserve praise, but Brighton is capable of getting a point from this fixture.
Newcastle vs. Burnley
Burnley to win +210
Newcastle have started the year 1-1-1, but yet they are 16th in expected goal differential so far this season. The Magpies have been outshot 41-27 in their first three games, and they have yet to outshoot their opponent in any of their matches.
Burnley have started the year 0-0-2, but they have actually outshot their opponents in both of their opening games and have an expected goal difference of +0.4.
This is in line with what we saw last season from these two teams, as Burnley finished in 10th place at 15-9-14, while Newcastle finished 13th at 11-11-16. Burnley were the slightly better side last season and seem to be the slightly better side again this season. Burnley to win at more than 2-1 is a good bet considering they appear to be the superior team.
Southampton vs. West Brom
Southampton to win -135
Newly promoted West Brom have had a tough start to the season and are 0-1-2 with a league worst -6 goal differential and a league-worst 11 goals conceded. Even in their one positive result, a 3-3 tie to Chelsea, they had just three shots on target for the match and blew a 3-0 lead. Their defending has been pitiful to start the year.
Southampton are a pedestrian 1-0-2, but they are an established Premier League side. The Saints finished in 11th place in the league last season, notching 15 wins, and they should be expected to defeat the league’s bottom feeders.
This bet is more a wager against West Brom rather than a bet in favor of Southampton. West Brom is going to concede goal-scoring opportunities, and they will be hard-pressed to have much success this season until they clean up their defending.
