FanDuel Soccer: EPL Under-the-Radar Plays for 7/26/20
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Sunday slate, which starts at 11:00 a.m. EST and features 10 matches.
|Sunday, July 26th|
|Watford at Arsenal|
|Liverpool at Newcastle|
|Tottenham at Crystal Palace|
|Manchester United at Leicester City|
|Brighton at Burnley|
|Bournemouth at Everton|
|Wolves at Chelsea|
|Norwich at Manchester City|
|Aston Villa at West Ham|
|Sheffield United at Southampton|
Matchweek 38 will bring to a close one of the most unique EPL seasons in recent memory. Despite Liverpool having had the title secured for weeks, the last day will still have plenty of drama at the top and bottom of the table. Manchester United (63 points), Chelsea (63 points), and Leicester City (62 points) are in the hunt for the last two Champions League spots, while Watford (34 points), Aston Villa (34 points), and Bournemouth (31 points) will fight to avoid the drop.
All eyes will be on the pivotal clash between Manchester United and Leicester City with a draw being enough to get the job done for the Red Devils. A draw will also be enough for Chelsea to secure their spot, but a loss and a Leicester City win would see them on the outside looking in with United taking fourth. At the bottom of the table, Watford has a very difficult task on the road against Arsenal (a test Aston Villa passed at home last Tuesday), while Villa will travel to West Ham.
With all 20 teams in action at the end of an extremely congested fixture period, squad rotation should open up several value options on big-six sides. The plethora of talent available at the middle and high-end of the player pool should spread out ownership, but Manchester City's stars deserve consideration above the rest. Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham are all favorites, but Manchester City's implied win probability of 93.34% is tops by a huge margin. The presence of so many stars on this slate might slightly mask the incredible outlook for Manchester City this weekend.
With all that in mind, here are three players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Joshua King, FWD/MID, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $16
Bournemouth has been miserable since the restart, with just one win and one draw from their last eight fixtures. There's no way to sugarcoat that, but it deserves mentioning that their schedule has been absolutely brutal. Over their last six matches, they have faced a Southampton side that is on a six-match unbeaten streak, Manchester City, Leicester City, Tottenham, and Manchester United. Their run of poor results has left them needing a win and some help on the final day to stay up, and thankfully they draw an Everton side with little left to play for.
Everton has conceded an average of 1.16 goals per match over their last six, while Bournemouth, despite their struggles, has shown the ability to score against elite opposition. They put one past Manchester City, four past Leicester City, and two past Manchester United. King has struggled heavily with consistency amid a difficult season for Bournemouth, but he has shown a ceiling of 30-plus FanDuel points before, reaching the mark four times this season.
Bournemouth has been left for dead and should go overlooked this weekend despite being one of only a few sides with something left to play for. Everton are only slight favorites at home in this one, and Bournemouth's chances are better than their recent run of form would suggest. With Watford away at Arsenal and Aston Villa on the road against a stingy West Ham side, Bournemouth's chances of avoiding the drop are remarkably still very real.
Chris Wood, FWD/MID, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $11
With three sides on both ends of the table still with so much left to play for, a match with no stakes between two safe sides in Burnley and Brighton should go overlooked. Brighton is safe, sitting on 38 points, while Burnley can improve to no better than eighth on Sunday. With relegation officially in their rearview mirror, this is a very easy let down spot for Brighton traveling on the road to face a Burnley side that is undefeated in their last seven, with just one loss (Manchester City) since the restart.
Wood quietly has a goal in each of his last two matches, bringing his total for the season up to 13, his third consecutive season with double-digit goals. On eight days of rest, he should be able to go the full 90 or close to it, which he has done just once since the restart. No side has allowed more goals over their last six fixtures than Brighton, who has conceded an average of 2.16 goals per match (albeit to Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Arsenal) in that time. This is a great spot for Wood and Burnley, and it will likely go overlooked on a massive 10-game slate.
Wood's low salary of $11 could slightly increase his ownership, but with the potential for value to be found all over the slate with squad rotations, Wood isn't going to be popular. Wood makes for an excellent value option to pair with a lineup heavy on Manchester City's stars.
Ruben Neves, FWD/MID, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $13
Manchester United's recent collapse has taken some of the heat off of Chelsea, but it should be noted that the Blues are in the middle of their own breakdown. They are favorites at home against Wolves, and with the main drama taking place between Leicester City and Manchester United on Sunday, the potential for Chelsea to fail to qualify is going slightly overlooked.
Chelsea has conceded 13 goals over their last six fixtures, and their most convincing result from those fixtures was a three-goal victory over Watford, one of the worst sides in the league. Outside of that, they barely scraped past Norwich, conceded five goals to Liverpool, three to Sheffield United, and two goals apiece to Crystal Palace and West Ham. Enter Wolves, who are fighting to secure a spot in the Europa League and have just one loss in their last six away fixtures.
Neves has started and played the full 90 in each of Wolves eight matches since the restart. He has double-digit FanDuel points in each of his last four fixtures with a combined eight shots and six chances created over the span. He has been unproductive and inconsistent to say the least this season, but he is currently in one of his best runs of form entering a crucial match against Chelsea. With the Blues expected to win, Neves may go overlooked -- even at a very manageable salary of $13 -- against a Chelsea side that has been far from dominant.