FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/26/20
|Aston Villa at West Ham||Aston Villa (+120)||-150||Haller (+170)|
|Bournemouth at Everton||Everton (+120)||-166||Calvert-Lewin (+100)|
|Brighton at Burnley||Brighton (+130)||-106||Wood (+110)|
|Liverpool at Newcastle||Liverpool (-260)||-178||Salah (-150)|
|Manchester United at Leicester||Man United (+125)||-110||Vardy (+135)|
|Norwich at Manchester City||Man City (-1400)||-500||Jesus (-280)|
|Sheffield United at Southampton||Sheffield United (+120)||-112||Ings (-110)|
|Tottenham at Crystal Palace||Tottenham (-180)||-122||Kane (-130)|
|Watford at Arsenal||Arsenal (-110)||-150||Aubameyang (-145)|
|Wolves at Chelsea||Chelsea (-125)||-110||Giroud/Abraham (+125)|
After all that's happened this season, our final slate of the campaign is similar to so many of our main slates this season -- we want to target Liverpool and Manchester City. While the player pool is massively deep on this 10-game slate, City (-1400) and Liverpool (-260) stand out as the lone two sides with win odds of at least -233, the cutoff we're looking for when stacking, per a study I did this spring.
City are a laughable -1400 to beat Norwich, and this match is -170 to go over 3.5 goals. Only one match on the slate has better odds to go over 2.5 goals. City are -110 to score four or more goals. Man City may rotate the squad in what is a meaningless game for them outside of fine tuning for the upcoming Champions League, but any of their starting attackers will offer a monster ceiling. I will have at least two City attackers in every lineup I make, and I don't think it's too crazy to use three of them, even on a slate with 19 other teams.
City have six players with better than +120 odds to score -- Gabriel Jesus ($19; -280), Raheem Sterling ($22; -190), Riyad Mahrez ($18; -110), Kevin De Bruyne ($23; +110), Phil Foden ($15; +115) and Bernardo Silva ($16; +115).
KDB has scored at least 18.9 FanDuel points in every start since play resumed, and he's chalk worth swallowing thanks to his incredible floor/ceiling combination, though Sterling took City's last penalty. Of the other five, I like Jesus -- who is +200 to score at least two goals -- and Mahrez best as they should see less ownership than Sterling after Sterling's blow-up game last time out. That's not to say Silva and Foden aren't great options because they are. Again, anyone City starts in an attacking spot will be worth a looooong look no matter who it is.
As for the Reds, they snapped out of their post-clinch mehness with a five-goal effort Wednesday against Chelsea. If Liverpool are on, they can thrash Newcastle, but we've seen Liverpool sleepwalk for much of the restart. They could do just that again Sunday after lifting the trophy midweek, and they may rotate the squad. With all that said, we know what kind of single-game upside Mohamed Salah ($21; -150) and Sadio Mané ($19; -125) bring to the table every time out. I would advise against fading Liverpool's attackers.
The other team that stands out going by oddsmakers is Tottenham, who are -180 to win at Crystal Palace. Spurs need a win and help to get into a Europa League spot, so they should be motivated to give it a right go versus a Palace side with nothing on the line. Harry Kane ($22; -130) and Son Heung-Min ($20; +115) shouldn't be as popular as City's and Liverpool's high-priced studs, and either -- or both -- could pop here. If Dele Alli ($14; +185) returns to the lineup, he'd be a sweet point-per-dollar play. I won't stack Spurs, but I'll be choosing between Son and Kane in a lot of my lineups.
I also want to touch on Michail Antonio ($18; +175) in his home date with Aston Villa. While Villa certainly have more at stake than West Ham, Antonio has been one of the EPL's top players in the restart, netting a goal in five of his last six games and scoring eight total goals in that span. He took a penalty midweek when Mark Noble, the Hammers' normal penalty taker, was on the pitch, which only enhances Antonio's DFS outlook if he holds onto that gig. On an underdog and priced alongside the stars from Spurs, Liverpool and City, Antonio should fly under the radar, but he can be a key GPP play against a Villa defense that's allowed the most expected goals, per FBRef.
Added time -- Even though Chelsea have motivation on their side, I find myself shying away from the Blues in a match that's an ugly -110 to go over 2.5 goals given the other quality forwards/midfielders we have at our disposal. ... I like Arsenal (-110) better than Chelsea in the Gunners' home date with Watford, though the Hornets clearly have more to play for. The thought of getting Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($18; -145) at modest ownership against one of the league's worst teams is awfully enticing. Auba has the best goal odds outside of City and Liverpool players. ... Everton have nothing to play for against Bournemouth while the Cherries have to win to have any chance to stay up. But the Toffees are slight favorites (+120), and I could see this snowballing on Bournemouth if Eddie Howe's bunch gets down. Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($16; +100) and Richarlison ($17; +125) have good goal odds and won't be all that popular. ... Jamie Vardy ($18; +135) has the best goal odds in the Man United-Leicester match and profiles as a lower-owned play at the position.
Personally I see very little reason to pay up at defender on this slate. With so many top-notch attackers, I want to spend my money there, so I'll be looking to cheap defenders on Norwich, Newcastle and Palace, the slate's three biggest underdogs.
It's likely either Timm Klose ($8) or Christoph Zimmermann ($7) starts for the Canaries, and they'd be a great value target in a match in which Norwich will likely be bombarded. Tyrick Mitchell ($6) is an expected starter for Palace, and he scored 9.9 FanDuel points in a start last time out at Wolves. I'd take that output in a heartbeat for $6. Newcastle have just one defender priced above $10, and if Emil Krafth ($7) can't go, they could end up with a dirt-cheap starting defender against Liverpool.
If the masses also do what I'm doing, the high-priced defenders could go lower-owned. Of the pricey guys, Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) and Lucas Digne ($15) jump out to me. They should get forward plenty in friendly matchups, and both handle some set-piece work. Trent has rebounded from a little lull to post 16.6 and 42.1 FanDuel points over his last two, creating five chances in that span while tallying a goal and an assist. Digne doesn't have TAA's ceiling (who does at defender?), but he's scored at least 13 FanDuel points in seven of eight games since play resumed.
Added time -- Leicester's Ryan Bennett ($7) and Wes Morgan ($9) could rack up defensive actions in a match in which the Foxes will likely be without the ball quite a bit. ... Assuming he starts, Héctor Bellerín ($11) has some appeal versus Watford, especially if Arsenal go with three at the back, which would give the Spaniard even more freedom to bomb forward. ... Whoever Manchester City starts at full-back will be in play as a stacking partner for their attackers.
Ederson ($14) and Alisson ($14) are the two most expensive keepers, and they also have the best win odds. Of the two, I like Ederson way more. He's got much better win odds, and City are an incredible -186 to keep a clean sheet. Liverpool, meanwhile, are just +120 to keep a clean sheet. If you're paying up, Ederson is the better pick.
Hugo Lloris ($12) could wind up being the slate's highest-owned keeper as he has the dreamy combination of good win odds and a respectable salary. Spurs are a nice +116 to keep a clean sheet, too. I would prefer to pay up for Ederson to avoid Lloris' likely higher ownership, but with 20 keepers available to us, it's unlikely any goalie is super popular.
Southampton's Alex McCarthy ($11) checks a few boxes. The Saints are +120 to win at home versus Sheffield United, and Southampton are +198 to keep a clean sheet. While the Blades have had a stellar campaign, it's not due to their attacking prowess as they're just 15th in expected goals.
Added time -- If you're willing to try hard enough, you can make a case for several other keepers on this slate. Jordan Pickford ($10) has solid win odds (+120) at a cheap price, but Everton are just +260 to blank Bournemouth. ... I can stomach Lukasz Fabianski ($8) at the clearance-rack price. West Ham aren't good, but neither are Villa. The Villans are fourth-worst in expected goals, although West Ham are just +340 to keep a clean sheet. ... Keep an eye out for any unexpected backups starting.