Bundesliga Betting Guide for Matchday 30
The Bundesliga is the only soccer show in town for a bit -- at least among the big leagues -- so if you're looking to bet on soccer, it's your only choice.
FanDuel Sportsbook has odds for each of the games in Matchday 30, so let's look at a few of the best bets.
Bayern Munich at Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen to win (+480) or draw (+400)
Bayern Munich are probably going to win this match. They're the better side by every metric you can find, and they've been steamrolling teams since play resumed.
But Leverkusen has a better shot than what oddsmakers are giving them.
Leverkusen are in pretty dazzling form themselves. Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Leverkusen has 12 wins, one loss, and one draw. The one loss in that span was a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Wolfsburg, but outside of that defeat, they have won the other three matches since the break by a combined score of 8-2.
Star man Kai Havertz gives Die Werkself an elite talent up front, a player capable of turning a match on his own, and it looks like his early removal last match was precautionary. Plus, Leverkusen beat Bayern 2-1 earlier this year at the Allianz.
While Leverkusen won't get the benefit of a true home-field advantage in this one, I think they're capable of at least taking a point -- or at least more capable than the +400 line would have you believe. There's some value on the Leverkusen side of these lines.
Mainz at Eintracht Frankfurt
Frankfurt to win (+100)
Oddsmakers have wisened up to the lack of home-field advantage we've seen in the Bundesliga since the restart, but in this instance, I think that has pushed the line too far the other way, opening up value with Eintracht Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt are 21 goals ahead of Mainz in goal differential and seven points ahead in the table. Using FB-Ref's expected goals, Frankfurt is 14.4 expected goals ahead of Mainz.
In short, Eintracht Frankfurt are better.
The hesitation by oddsmakers -- outside of the lack of home-field advantage -- may have to due with fatigue. Eintracht Frankfurt just played on Wednesday (a 3-0 win at Werder Bremen) while Mainz has been off since May 30th. But I'm not super concerned about that given the extra subs teams are allowed.
Eintracht Frankfurt are unbeaten in their last three (two wins and a draw), and I think they pick up another three points here.
Hoffenheim at Fontana Dusseldorf
Hoffenheim to win (+145)
The time off seems to have helped Hoffenheim.
Prior to the break, Hoffenheim had taken just two points from their last five league games, losing four of six matches overall in all competitions. Since the restart, they've picked up seven points from four matches -- putting up at least 1.6 expected goals in each of the four games.
I like them to keep rolling against a Dusseldorf side that is 21.7 goals worse than Hoffenheim by expected goal differential.
The hesitation with Hoffenheim is that they can go missing defensively, something they've been punished for lately as they've allowed 22 goals (19.1 expected goals) over their last 10 matches. That shouldn't be too much of a problem in this clash. Dusseldorf have scored just 31 goals in 29 league matches, and they own a league-low 29.3 expected goals tally for the year.
At +145, Hoffenheim are a slight favorite but still offer a chance at a reasonable profit.