Premier League: 4 FanDuel Value Plays for Matchweek 38
The last matchday of the 2017-18 Premier League season is here. Every team will play at the same time on Sunday, and there's one Champions League spot and one relegation spot still to be settled. All 10 matches will be on the FanDuel main slate.
|Sunday, May 13th|
|West Brom at Crystal Palace|
|Manchester City at Southampton|
|Watford at Manchester United|
|Stoke at Swansea|
|Leicester at Tottenham|
|Brighton at Liverpool|
|Arsenal at Huddersfield|
|Bournemouth at Burnley|
|Chelsea at Newcastle|
|Everton at West Ham|
Perhaps more than any other week, it is vital to check the team news. The result of this weekend's match will not matter for a lot of teams, so managers could trot out different squads than normal. Being on a World Cup roster, the end of a contract, possible retirements, and injuries are some of the reasons for roster shakeups, so make sure to take a look around 9:00 a.m. EST.
It should be no surprise that Mo Salah is the most expensive player at $13,000. Nearly 30 players are priced at or above $9,000. Kieran Trippier leads the defenders at $7,000. There are 43 total defenders priced at or above $6,000. The expected starting keepers fall in a $1,500 range from $5,500 to $4,000.
With the lay of the land set, let’s see where the value lies.
Forward to Target
Charlie Austin ($7,000) -- It would take a dramatic goal swing for Southampton to lose their place in the Premier League for next season. Manager Mark Hughes has let it be known that his team is not mathematically safe.
They will also be facing the league champions Manchester City, with City needing a win to be the first team to earn 100 points in a season. So there's a lot to play for here, especially for Southampton, who must avoid a 5-0 or 4-0 kind of thrashing.
City did roll out a different lineup in their last match, but that may not be the case on the road this weekend. Pep Guardiola wants the 100-point mark, but with the title secure, he may not use his absolute best starting XI. Austin should be the main beneficiary as he looks to poach a goal or two in the City box.
Austin went the full 90 minutes in the pivotal win over Swansea on Tuesday. He has seven goals on the season and averages two shots per match. Austin is good enough in the air to challenge City's defenders on set pieces.
Austin also gets the call because he is a contrarian pick as many will likely pay up for attackers this week, making Austin ideally suited for large-field tourneys.
There are likely to be other value plays with all 20 teams in action and not many sides having a lot to play for (read: there could be a lot of squad rotation). Peter Crouch looks set to start in what might be his last game for Stoke City, and he's just $6,500. Daniel Sturridge ($7,000) should lead the line for West Brom in a meaningless match now that the Baggies' relegation has been sealed.
Midfielder to Target
Hamza Choudhury ($5,000) -- Leicester's match against Tottenham does not mean much, either, but Leicester would surely like to finish the season on a small win streak. Both teams have rather extensive injury or suspension lists, and on the Foxes' side, that has meant playing time for Choudhury.
Following an excellent year, @HamzaChoudhury has been named the #lcfc 2017/18 Development Squad Player of the Season sponsored by OMM. #LCFCawards pic.twitter.com/2pvEUSwaXg
— Leicester City (@LCFC) May 1, 2018
Choudhury is lining up behind Jamie Vardy and seeing opportunities with the ball at his feet. He was able to gain an assist on a Riyad Mahrez goal in Wednesday's match and will be looking to add to his offensive statline in the final match of the season.
The 20.5-FanDuel-point performance against Arsenal was Choudhury's best in limited action this season. He had six defensive actions and a chance created to go along with the assist. Choudhury's first-team playing time has been limited in his young career, but he has contributed a touch more than three defensive actions per match and a high pass succession rate.
Defender to Target
Alfie Mawson ($5,500) -- It's going to take a monstrous effort from Swansea for them to overcome the goal difference to Southampton, but they have no choice but to go for it. However, for many of the players, this may be the last chance to impress in order to find a new home in a top league next season, given the likely relegation of the Swans.
Mawson has been linked to Tottenham and is likely to be one of the first out the door, but he will want to have a good showing regardless. He has averaged just over eight defensive actions per match, and his passing numbers have also been good playing as part of a three-man back line.
Swansea will play against Stoke, a team that is already relegated and playing for nothing more than pride. The Potters allow the second-most shots per game and have not scored more than one goal in 13 straight games. Stoke may be the best team for Mawson to play against in what is, most likely, his last game with Swansea.
Keeper to Target
Willy Caballero ($4,000) -- Thibaut Courtois missed Chelsea's last match, which came on Wednesday, so Caballero may be in net again, this time versus a Newcastle team that has dropped four straight games. Newcastle were held without a goal in three of those matches. Chelsea have also won their last three away matches and have seen fewer than 2.5 total goals in their last three league matches.
Caballero has played in only three EPL matches, recording seven total saves. He did have a clean sheet early in the season, resulting in a 24-FanDuel-point performance. Chelsea are also on good form, having won four of their last five matches.
Caballero is the cheapest expected starter, so he can help you pay for the studs you want, and his point ceiling is high in a good matchup.
Douglas Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Douglas Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username aquemini03. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.