3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 33
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, April 7th|
|Burnley at Watford|
|Swansea City at West Bromwich Albion
|Crystal Palace at Bournemouth|
|Tottenham at Stoke City|
|Huddersfield Town at Brighton & Hove Albion|
|Newcastle at Leicester City|
|Manchester United at Manchester City|
Matchweek 33 is highlighted by the Manchester Derby. While the Derby has the potential to clinch the Premier League for Manchester City, for DPS purposes, it limits the upside of both clubs involved. As is typical of Manchester United on the road these days, the Red Devils will most likely sit back and defend. This should allow City the majority of time on the ball, but Manchester United's back line has been strong all season. With David De Gea in net it, is unlikely this one gets too out of hand.
For DFS purposes, Tottenham are the focus of Matchweek 33, as they are the largest favorite on the slate by a wide margin. As a 1.5-goal favorite on the road against Stoke City, they are a full goal ahead of the next largest favorites (Watford, Brighton, Leicester City, and Manchester City) -- all of whom are 0.5-goal favorites. Despite expected high ownership, completely fading Tottenham is ill-advised. Their road form has been excellent, and Stoke City's home form has seen them win only one match from their previous six.
Outside of the elite sides, this slate is wide open. The remaining five matches are all projected to be close, and with the exception of Huddersfield Town, all of the sides involved have an implied total above one goal.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 33.
Pascal Gross, Brighton & Hove Albion
FanDuel Salary: $9,500
Targeting Brighton at home didn't go according to plan last weekend as they fell to Leicester City. That said, one loss doesn't discredit their history of good play at home, and if their ownership levels are lower coming off a bad performance, that only increases their value for large-field tournaments. Even in last weekend's loss, Gross produced 15.75 FanDuel points, extending his double-digit streak to eight matches. Over those eight matches, he has averaged 22.3 FanDuel points per match, and he's done that with only a single goal scored.
At a price point of $9,500, Gross has the same salary as Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling, and he is $500 less than Heung-Min Son and Leroy Sane. Being surrounded by those headline names should further lower his ownership, and City will likely be fairly popular even with their tough matchup against United.
At an implied total of 1.5 goals, Brighton have the fourth-highest total on the slate. Huddersfield Town have been miserable on the road recently, recording five losses in their last six. During that span, they have conceded 11 goals and scored only 2, and they have allowed 31 goals on the road this season, the fourth-most in the Premier League. Brighton and Pascal Gross are in an excellent spot to rebound and get back to winning ways at low levels of ownership this weekend.
Callum Wilson, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $8,500
Bournemouth are struggling to win matches recently, but at home, they are undefeated against non-elite sides since November. Over their last six home matches, they have four wins, one draw, and one loss. During that span, they scored 11 goals and conceded 10. While they certainly have defensive issues, their 11 goals scored is tied for the fifth-most in the Premier League over that stretch.
Wilson is a goal-dependent striker, and while he hasn't scored in the Premier League since the end of January, he still has the third-best odds to score this weekend outside of players on elite sides. Before his current goal drought, Wilson was on fire, scoring four goals in six matches and averaging 27.25 FanDuel points per match. Despite his recent struggles, his upside remains intact, and he may go overlooked at home this weekend.
With the recent news that Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke will be unavailable this weekend due to a groin injury he suffered in training, the injuries are starting to pile up for the Eagles. In addition to Benteke, they are missing Connor Wickham, Bakary Sako, and Alexander Sorloth, leaving them incredibly thin in attack. Due to this, it is possible that they set up with Wilfried Zaha at forward and opt for a more defensive, counter-attacking strategy. If they do that, it should allow Bournemouth, who average the third-most home possession outside of the big-six clubs, even more time on the ball, further increasing Wilson's chances in the final third.
Serge Aurier, Tottenham
FanDuel Salary: $6,000
One way to gain unique exposure to Tottenham is to pair one of their midfielders with Aurier. While Aurier isn't a constant in the starting XI, he makes an impact when he is in the lineup. With the exception of his first start of the season against Swansea back in September, Aurier has produced double-digit fantasy points in each of his 14 starts. He averages 21.8 FanDuel points per match and has produced more than 25.0 FanDuel points four times.
Despite their losing record at home, Stoke have been stingy to opposing teams, but they average just 45.1% possession, the third-worst clip in the Premier League. They also give up the second-most shots per home match at 13.6. Tottenham should dominate this clash, and that will likely allow Aurier to spend most of his time on the wing in Stoke's final third.
Adding to Tottenham's outlook is their impressive road form, which has seen them win their last five away fixtures by a combined score of 11-2. They are the second-best team on the road this season in terms of points, and they have the second-best away goal differential (+12) while scoring the third-most road goals (31).
If he's in the lineup, Aurier is an cheap way to gain contrarian exposure to Tottenham.