4 FanDuel Premier League Players to Avoid in Matchweek 33
The main slate for Matchweek 33 features seven Saturday matches with six of the top-10 clubs in action. The marquee match features the top-two clubs in the table as Manchester United visits Etihad Stadium for the second-leg of the Manchester Derby.
|Burnley at Watford|
|Newcastle at Leicester|
|Swansea at West Brom|
|Tottenham at Stoke|
|Crystal Palace at Bournemouth|
|Huddersfield at Brighton|
|Manchester United at Manchester City|
As with any DFS sport, it is imperative to have your players, especially the high-priced studs, live up to their price tag. When investing in any player, it is important to determine who will likely contribute in FanDuel's emphasized areas (goals, assists, and shots on target). It's also just as crucial not to overspend on players in bad matchups.
We should try to take advantage of the teams -- and players -- who play especially well either home or away, while also looking at oddsmakers' favorites and over/under totals. Due to the international friendlies over the layoff, DFS players, as always, should check out injury reports and confirmed starting XI's when they become available since some players may be rested.
Let's take a look at four players across the entire pitch who should be avoided.
Romelu Lukaku, Manchester United
FanDuel Price: $11,000
Lukaku is tied with Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus as the third-highest priced forward on the slate, and he has averaged 20.73 FanDuel points this season. Lukaku has played well over his last six Premier League matches, netting 4 goals and recording 2 assists while averaging 24.08 FanDuel points in that span.
The Belgian is tied for fifth in the EPL with 15 goals this season, but he has struggled against the Premier League’s best clubs. Lukaku’s only goal against an opponent currently in the top-five came Matchweek 28 against Chelsea, and he has scored only three goals against top-10 squads.
The Citizens have allowed the fewest goals this season, and that is one of the reasons they have a chance to clinch the Premier League title against their crosstown rivals on Saturday. Being the top club in the EPL, City has played well against most positions, and the forward position is no different. They have allowed the second-fewest chances created (0.72), fewest shots (1.32) and fewest shots on target (0.57) per 90 minutes to forwards this season.
Lukaku has a tough matchup, and the price tag is expensive for a forward against City. Also in Lukaku's top-level price range are Harry Kane ($12,500), who should feast against the Potters (if he starts), while both Burnley forwards -- Chris Wood ($10,000) and Ashley Barnes ($9,500) -- should see scoring opportunities against the Hornets.
Riyad Mahrez, Leicester City
FanDuel Price: $11,000
Mahrez is tied with Manchester City’s David Silva as the top-priced midfielder -- and third-most expensive overall player -- on the slate, and he has averaged 21.84 FanDuel points through 29 matches. Since Matchweek 28, Mahrez has the third-highest average on the slate at 30.25 FanDuel points.
The Foxes are a 0.5-goal favorite over the Magpies, and the over/under is set at 2.5 goals. The Foxes -- albeit not a great possession squad -- should be able to control the possession against Newcastle as the Magpies are the second-worst squad in the league in that category, maintaining 43.5% of the possession this season.
Despite that, the Magpies have performed near the middle of the table against midfielders. They have allowed the 8th-most crosses (2.85), 10th-fewest shots (1.57) and 8th-fewest chances created (1.27) per 90 minutes to midfielders/attacking-midfielders this season.
Mahrez is always a threat to score a goal -- especially on set pieces -- but his price may turn out to be too restrictive for the value he returns, especially in large-field tournaments.
Ben Davies, Tottenham
FanDuel Price: $7,000
Davies is tied with Manchester City’s Nicolas Otamendi as to the top-priced defender on the slate, and he has averaged 18.77 FanDuel points through 25 matches this season. Davies has offered a nice floor since moving to left-back in December, scoring more than 10 FanDuel points in all 13 matches that he has started while scoring less than 14 FanDuel points just twice over that span.
The Potters are the largest underdog on the slate, and they have an implied team total of 0.5 goals. The Spurs are the Premier League’s second-best squad at possessing the ball, averaging 58.7% of the possession, while the Potters are the league’s third-worst club in that category, maintaining 44.2% of the possession.
Due to the limited time with the ball, the Potters do not surrender a large number of defensive actions to defenders. They have allowed the ninth-most tackles (1.71), fifth-fewest clearances (4.32), fourth-fewest blocked shots (0.45) and fewest interceptions (1.23) per 90 minutes to defenders this season.
Davies has shown he is a threat in the Spurs’ attack -- and the Potters allow the third-most chances created (0.61) per 90 minutes to defenders -- but even with an assist, Davies has shown the ability to score under 20 FanDuel points, something he has done twice in his last four matches. Without the possibility for a large number of defensive statistics, Davies is hard to trust as the top-priced defender who doesn't offer much in the way of upside.
Nick Pope, Burnley
FanDuel Price: $5,500
Pope is tied with two other keepers as the second-highest priced player at his position, and he has averaged 14.91 FanDuel points this season. Pope has kept just one clean sheet in his previous 10 matches while averaging 11.7 FanDuel points over that span.
The Hornets are a 0.5-goal favorite over the Clarets and have an implied team total of 1.25 goals. Watford have a slight edge in the possession battle this season as they have averaged 49.4% of the possession while Burnley have maintained 45.1% of the possession.
According to the odds, the Hornets are likely to score at least one goal, which is something they have done in 11 straight matches at Vicarage Road. If they are able to find the net, Pope will have a hard time providing value as the Hornets have forced the third-fewest saves (65) from opposing keepers this season. The keepers on the slate are all priced relatively evenly, so you should be able to find a keeper who offers more value than Pope.