3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 23
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, January 13th|
|Burnley at Crystal Palace|
|Leicester City at Chelsea
|Southampton at Watford|
|West Ham United at Huddersfield Town|
|Swansea City at Newcastle|
|Brighton & Hove Albion at West Bromwich Albion|
|Everton at Tottenham|
Matchweek 23 is highlighted by Chelsea and Tottenham, both of whom are 1.5 goal favorites at home. The over/under for Leicester City at Chelsea is 3.0 goals, which is slightly higher than the Everton at Tottenham over/under of 2.5 goals. Both sides will carry heavy ownership on a slate devoid of other elite options.
Of the five remaining matches, four have an over/under of just 2.0 goals, with the exception being Southampton at Watford, which has an over/under of 2.5 goals. The drop in implied goals from the elite sides is steep, with Newcastle and Crystal Palace the closest at 1.45 goals each.
With only two elite sides in action, Harry Kane ($12,000) is sure to be the highest-owned player on the slate, which makes him a prime fade candidate for large-field tournaments. Fading Kane is always risky, but opting for other Tottenham options saves salary and creates a more unique lineup.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 23.
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Fading Kane and opting for Tottenham midfielders opens up a forward spot, which lends itself to a Chelsea forward stack of Pedro and Alvaro Morata. Cesc Fabregas can also be considered as part of a triple stack, but leaving him out and combining Pedro and Morata with two Tottenham midfielders, such as Heung-Min Son and Dele Alli, creates a unique lineup with exposure to both elite sides.
After not featuring in Chelsea’s League Cup tie with Arsenal on Wednesday, Pedro should be back in the side this weekend. While his FanDuel point production has been hit or miss this season, he has been in excellent form lately. Over his last four starts Pedro has averaged 4.5 shots and 2.0 shots on goal per match, helping him average 25 FanDuel points per match.
Leicester City are allowing 15.5 shots per match on the road this season, and the Foxes have conceded 10 goals over their last six away matches. Chelsea have won their last seven home matches while averaging 2.4 goals per match. This is an excellent spot for Pedro and Morata, and the combination of the two should carry lower levels of ownership due to Kane’s presence on the slate.
Yohan Cabaye, Crystal Palace
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Yohan Cabaye hasn’t played a full 90 minutes since November, and he has still averaged 18.32 FanDuel points per match this season. When given the minutes, he has proven he can produce from the center midfield position, especially in a 4-4-2 formation. With Andros Townsend a serious doubt for this weekend after picking up an ankle injury on Monday, Cabaye has an excellent chance to see an uptick in minutes.
At a price of only $7,500, Cabaye has the added benefit of being a relative value, allowing the inclusion of multiple Tottenham and Chelsea options. While Burnley are strong at the back, Crystal Palace still have the third-highest implied total on the slate at 1.45 goals, and the Eagles have been in fine form lately, netting 10 goals scored over their last six matches.
At home, Crystal Palace average 15.3 shots per match, the seventh-most in the league. They also average the ninth-most possession at 49.2%. Conversely, Burnley allow 18.3 shots per match on the road, tied with West Ham United for the most in the Premier League. Crystal Palace should find success in the final third this weekend, and with Townsend out, Cabaye should be heavily involved for the first time since November.
Shane Long, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Of the underdogs on the slate, Southampton have the highest implied goal total at 1.29 goals in a match with an over/under of 2.5 goals. As a forward with a low salary, using Long while fading Harry Kane instantly creates a unique lineup and opens $4,500 of salary to be allocated elsewhere.
Since Charlie Austin went down with a serious hamstring injury right before Christmas, Long has been given three consecutive starts against Tottenham, Manchester United, and Crystal Palace. He averaged 20.5 FanDuel points per match over that span, and he scored his first goal of the season against Crystal Palace. Given the strength of those opponents, Long’s output has been impressive.
Watford have just one win in their last 10 matches, losing to both elite teams and lesser sides. They have conceded an average of 2.1 goals per match over their last six, and the Hornets allow 12.8 shots per match at home, the eighth-most in the Premier League. Southampton average 13.9 shots per match on the road, the eighth-most in the Premier League. Despite Watford being a home favorite, Southampton should be able to find some success in the final third this weekend, which will benefit Long’s recent form.