3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 6
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, September 23rd|
|Huddersfield at Burnley|
|Bournemouth at Everton|
|Crystal Palace at Manchester City|
|Manchester United at Southampton|
|Chelsea at Stoke City|
|Watford at Swansea City|
|Liverpool at Leicester City|
Matchweek 6 is an expanded slate, with seven games included instead of the usual six. There are four elite sides in action -- Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool. Of the elite clubs, Manchester City are the largest favorite at a massive spread of 2.5 goals at home against struggling Crystal Palace. They are the only one of the four top-tier sides who are at home.
United are a 0.5-goal favorite against Southampton, Chelsea are a 1.0-goal favorite at Stoke City, and Liverpool are a 0.5-goal favorite at Leicester City. Crystal Palace at Manchester City has the largest over/under on the slate at 3.5 goals, with Leicester City at Liverpool closely behind at 3.0 goals. Manchester United at Southampton and Chelsea at Stoke City both have an over/under of 2.5 goals.
Outside of the elite squads, Everton are the largest favorite as a 1.0-goal favorite at home against Bournemouth. Burnley are 0.5-goal favorites at home against Huddersfield, and Swansea City are the slimmest favorites of the week in a pick 'em match at home against Watford. Bournemouth at Everton and Watford at Swansea City have an over/under of 2.5 goals, while Huddersfield at Burnley has the lowest over/under on the slate at 2.0 goals.
Similar to last week, there are multiple elite sides in action, but unlike last week, only one of them is at home. Coming off their absolute destruction of a Watford side that had started off well, Manchester City are in a dream matchup against Palace. This entire slate should run through them, and despite the presence of other elite sides with lower ownership, Manchester City should be a core part of any large-field tournament line up this weekend.
Unlike last week, when the implied totals of the elite sides were very similar, this week Manchester City’s implied total of 2.54 goals is miles ahead of everyone -- with Chelsea owning the second-highest clip at 1.77 goals. Their upside is apparent after last weekend, when Sergio Aguero scored 85 FanDuel points and single handedly vaulted lineups to the top of leaderboards. Due to that performance, he should be the highest-owned player on the slate. One move to consider is opting for his teammate Gabriel Jesus at slightly lower ownership, or playing both of them, which shouldn’t be as popular as playing just Aguero.
The sky-high salaries on all of Manchester City’s players should make it difficult to include other players from elite sides. However, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Chelsea all played in the league cup during the week, which may force some changes in their starting lineups for this weekend.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 6.
Ander Herrera, Manchester United
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
One of the unfortunate consequences of new summer signings is the players they force out of consistent playing time. The arrival of Nemanja Matic did just that to Herrera. However, with Pogba injured, it is possible that Herrera sees additional playing time in the midfield this weekend. He played a full 90 minutes in the League Cup on Wednesday, so it is certainly possible he will be rotated out for this weekend, but if he isn’t, he’s a strong play.
Due to his lack of playing time, people may have forgotten just how good Herrera is at soccer and scoring FanDuel points. He adds additional value with his defensive abilities, and he is certainly not afraid to shoot. While he doesn’t score often, he frequently gains FanDuel points for shots on goal. Last season, in 27 starts, he had 38 shots, 36 chances created, 81 interceptions and 62 tackles. He’s a jack of all trades.
Southampton’s ninth place position on the league table is deceiving. So far they have played Swansea City, West Ham, Huddersfield, Watford and Crystal Palace -- not an all-star cast. They only managed to beat West Ham and Crystal Palace, both of whom are in the bottom four of the league table. Manchester United will the Saints' first true test, and they should fail it. The potential return of star center back Virgil Van Dijk will certainly help Southampton, but his impact isn’t enough to turn the tide of this match.
Tammy Abraham, Swansea City
FanDuel Salary, $7,500
Outside of the elite sides and Everton, Swansea City have the highest implied goal total at 1.39 goals. Swansea are winless at home this year, but one of those losses was to Manchester United, and they had a positive showing in the other, despite losing 1-0 to Newcastle. Last season, Swansea scored 1.42 goals per match at home, a mark they are well below right now with no goals at Liberty stadium. Against an ailing Watford side with numerous defensive injuries, they should find the back of the net for the first time at home this campaign.
Despite Swansea City’s early struggles, Abraham has had good showings in the last two matches in which Swansea were favored. He produced 26.25 FanDuel points against Crystal Palace and 14 against Newcastle. He has similar goal-scoring odds to Marcus Rashford this weekend, and Abraham has better odds than every other Swansea City player. If Swansea get their first home result of the season, Abraham will likely be a huge reason why.
Watford had an excellent start to the year, but there is blood in the water after they were destroyed by Manchester City last weekend. While Swansea are far from an elite offensive unit, they should still be able to take advantage of the injuries in Watford’s defense. Until they are back at full strength, Watford’s results might look more like their loss to Manchester City than their hot start to the season.
Wayne Rooney, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Wayne Rooney is never really under the radar after all he has accomplished. However, with four elite sides in action this weekend, he may go slightly overlooked compared to other high-priced forwards due to Everton’s early season struggles.
In truth, his upside and floor this weekend are as good, if not better, than most of the elite options. Rooney has been the centerpiece of Everton’s offensive since his transfer this summer, starting all five of their Premier League matches and playing at least 82 minutes in each. Despite only scoring two goals in those five matches, he is still averaging 19.2 FanDuel points per match.
Everton’s slow start can be explained by their fixture schedule. After beating Stoke City on opening weekend, they ran into a fixture buzzsaw -- with matches against Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester United. A home match against Bournemouth will provide some much-needed relief, and it should allow Everton to showcase their offensive abilities.
Bournemouth have one win in their first five matches and currently sit in 19th place in the league table. They have conceded nine goals so far this season, and the Cherries have yet to score a goal on the road. Everything points to this being is a dream matchup for Everton, who should be able to do to Bournemouth what the elite sides did to them in their last four matches. If that happens, Rooney should thrive, and pairing him with teammate Gylfi Sigurdsson provides elite upside at a slightly discounted price.