NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 2/10/22
We have seven more games to look forward to on the NHL schedule tonight, spread across three time slots. Keep an eye on the high-scoring trend that's developing this week, as the over is 10-4-1 since the NHL resumed play after their All-Star break.
We're highlighting a couple of our favorite picks from our daily projections. These are the wagers we're looking at.
This could very well be a preview of the Stanley Cup final to end the season. The Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning have been some of the best teams not only in their respective conferences but the entire league. That should make for an entertaining affair when the Avs host the Bolts on Thursday.
The Avs have the benefit of home-ice advantage, but they have a couple of other things working in their favor, too. Colorado has been on a tear, outplaying four of their past five opponents. Their metrics are working on both ends of the ice, as they've attempted 11 high-danger chances at five-on-five in three of their past five games while limiting their opponents to nine or fewer on as many occasions. That's impacting their goaltending, as Colorado goalies have posted above-average save percentages in all five games.
The advanced metrics for the Lightning have been less effective over their recent sample. Tampa has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in three of their past six. Those poor performances could be catching up with the team, as the Lightning have posted below-average shooting percentages in three straight games, recording eight goals over that span.
Based on our projections, the Avalanche have a 57.7% chance of winning tonight. In reconciling that with the betting market, where they are currently priced as a pick'em, that leaves an edge in backing the home side on the moneyline. We rate it as a two-star play.
Bruins moneyline (+126): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Boston Bruins are due for a reversal of fortunes, and that should start tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. Analytically, the Bruins are in the elite echelon of the NHL; however, that success isn't reflected in their outcomes. We've keyed in on the Bruins as progression candidates over their coming games.
The Bruins have the highest-rated expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five and the eighth-best across all strengths. Still, Boston sits further back with the 12th-ranked points percentage and 29th-ranked PDO at five-on-five. The Bruins continue to outplay their opponents, posting expected goals-for ratings above 50.0% in eight of their past 10. Those dominant efforts should lead to more victories, as their outcomes start to balance with expected results.
The Canes have faltered over their recent stretch, losing two straight games. Production metrics are declining, as the Hurricanes haven't attempted more than nine high-danger chances at five-on-five in any of their past three games, below their season average of 10.8. That could haunt them against a Bruins team that hasn't allowed more than eight such chances in any of their past five games.
Wins should start piling up for the Bruins, and based on our projections, that could start tonight against the Hurricanes. Backing Boston on the moneyline is rated as a one-star wager.