NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/10/22: Who Should We Bet in an NBA Finals Rematch?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
The Toronto Raptors extended their win streak to seven games last night with a win over the Oklahoma City Thunder by a score of 117-98.
Despite the blowout, their starters all played at least 31 minutes, and they're now on a back-to-back against another weak squad. They're favored by 7.5 over the Houston Rockets on the road.
numberFire's model likes the Rockets to keep it within that 7.5 mark, however. They're 58.4% likely to cover, leading to an expected return of 11.5% and a two-star suggestion (i.e. a two-unit play).
Though Houston is 2-8 over their past 10 games with a point differential of -11.6, they're only a -3.5 against the spread, so it's not as bad as it seems once you adjust.
My model, accounting for injuries and recency, anticipated a spread of 6.2, so it would also side with Houston to cover.
Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns
We'll get our first glimpse of an NBA Finals rematch tonight with the Milwaukee Bucks traveling to face the Phoenix Suns as 4.0-point underdogs.
numberFire's algorithm is anticipating a win for last year's runner-up. Phoenix has a 71.6% win probability, which puts their moneyline (-168) into green-light territory as a three-star play.
Phoenix to cover is 53.9% likely, and with the spread having moved from 3.5 to 4.0, the recommendation fell from two units to a single-unit play.
My model pits the spread at 5.3.
Since 2016, 4.0-point home favorites have had a 63.3% win rate and a 52.9% cover rate.
New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors bested the New York Knicks in their first matchup by a score of 105 to 96 in Madison Square Garden on December 14th.
Golden State won three of the four factors and outrebounded the Knicks 49 to 35.
It's no real surprise that our model likes the Warriors to win (76.8% of the time), but it's actually the Knicks' spread (+9.5) that is getting the nod as a one-star play. (Same as their +370 moneyline.)
The Knicks have traveled fairly well with an 11-16 record and a -2.3 point differential (suggesting they should be closer to 12-15), for what it's worth. Their spread-adjusted point differential on the road is -0.5, so that's also enticing.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one, teams representing the Knicks won at just a 20.0% rate but covered at a 64.0% clip.
The under also hit in 84.0% of them, which is something our model likes as a three-star play, as well.
