Sunday's Best Starts and Must Sits for Week 2

Ready for week 2? If you're not already in the hole due to Brandon Marshall's Academy Award-winning rendition of H.G. Wells's Invisible Man, we'll be able to help you out. Of the guys on the bubble this morning, we have the only real option in Buffalo, RGIII's third-favorite target, and the Chicken Little Memorial "His team hates him now!" Player of the Week. We're very receiver-heavy in this Start/Sit Edition, but that's because we've already told our opinions this week on RB bubble candidates like Shonn Greene, Doug Martin, and C.J. Spiller. For another name we feel strongly about, check out Friday's Questions Wrap-Up for why we have the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph so low. And with that, let's get to some bubble-licious pass catchers.

Sunday's Best Starts and Must Sits for Week 2

WR Steve Johnson - Buffalo Bills
Week 1: 8.55 Projected Points (#22 Ranked WR)
Percent Started: 45.7%
Verdict: Start Him

Hmm... so let's see. You have a clear number one receiver who had double-digit targets in week 1. The #2 receiver (David Nelson) is out for the year with an injury, and the normal pass-catching running back (C.J. Spiller) will have to be the lead back, limiting his third-down pass catching opportunities. His opponent in week 2 is one of numberFire's bottom five defensive teams (Kansas City), and they just so happened to give up nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs to the Falcons' top two receivers combined last week. Oh, and he's been a top flight receiver the past two seasons (over 1000 yards and 7 TDs each year) to boot. I mean, I'm not a fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick either, but you can't turn that down, right? I don't see much of a reason why you would even consider sitting Johnson unless your team has exceptional WR depth. Don't let the Haaaarvard Grad freak you out; Johnson is a safe play.

WR Pierre Garcon - Washington Redskins
Week 1: 5.74 (if he plays) Projected Points (#46 Ranked WR)
Percent Started: 34.3%
Verdict: Sit Him

NFL.com via CBSSports and others are reporting Garcon isn't going to play today. Honestly, that's likely a good thing for Garcon owners, who won't be faced with as tough a decision about a receiver with a 4 PM start time. Even if this development changes, however, I'm still not starting him. Garcon had four catches on Sunday against the Saints. One of them happened to go for 88 yards, because the Saints secondary likely saw a shiny object in the stands and turned around to say "Oooh pretty!" while Garcon's simple 10-yard slant went for six points. On the other three catches, Garcon combined for 21 yards. Quite frankly, I'm amazed that Garcon even caught all four of the targets RGIII threw his way considering he has never had a catch rate higher than 57% as a starter, but that's just part of the magic of RGIII's week 1. As a Garcon owner, I'd be much more concerned that he only got those four targets, sitting tied for third on the team in that category behind Santana Moss (I told you...) and likely one-hit wonder Aldrick Robinson. If Garcon's only getting five or so targets a game, and his catch rate descends to even a career-high 60%, Garcon owners aren't going to have a fun time.

WR Wes Welker - New England Patriots
Week 1: 12.56 Projected Points (#2 Ranked WR)
Percent Started: 79.4%
Verdict: Start Him

Hey there, Chicken Little. Done telling everybody that the sky is falling, yet? Does everybody know now that Wes Welker's old (he's only 31), that he's never had a game like this (see: 2 catches, 22 yards last year against KC in the middle of a 1,500+ yard season), that the Patriots are phasing him out (only three targets less than team-leading Brandon Lloyd)? Everybody jumping off the Welkermobile is overreacting; the fact he's only being started in four-fifths of leagues right now is absolutely ridiculous to me. numberFire doesn't have him #22 or even #12 this week against the Arizona Cardinals. He's #2. As in, we project him doing better this week than Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or even the overcrowded bandwagon that is Julio Jones. Welker's catch rate is still at the tops of all NFL receivers; it hasn't sunk below 70% since 2006. With Brandon Lloyd only catching five of the eight targets Tom Brady threw his way last week, I doubt the all-world QB will want to go away from his security blanket that quickly (isn't that right Bridget Moynahan?). Welker's a must-play until he gets injured or publicly renounced by the High Council of Hoodies led by Councilman Belicheck.

TE Jason Witten - Dallas Cowboys
Week 1: 7.17 Projected Points (#6 Ranked TE)
Percent Started: 63.7%
Verdict: Start Him

I touched on this one a little bit in my Friday Questions Wrap-Up as well, but there is absolutely no reason to be sitting Jason Witten this week after ten days' rest. The Cowboys have three reliable targets for week 2: Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten. Notice how I didn't say Kevin Ogletree right there? I'm not a fan of his moving forward, especially as long as Romo has the other three to throw to. Why doesn't that crowded receiving corps worry me for Witten, then? When in doubt, turn to recent history: Jason Witten has averaged at least seven targets per game in each of the past five seasons, and he has led the Cowboys in targets in the past three. You'll barely see James Hanna or John Murphy on the field in this game, if ever, and their combined two targets from last week will likely go Witten's way. And since I always like to look at the match-up, the Seahawks are a decent defense (#11 by numberFire's rankings) but allowed five catches on six targets to Arizona tight ends Todd "Shell of his former self" Heap and Jeff "Never had a former self" King last week. If they can make plays against Seattle, a now-healthy Witten surely can as well.

TE Jared Cook - Tennessee Titans
Week 1: 4.69 Projected Points (#20 Ranked TE)
Percent Started: 41.2%
Verdict: Sit Him

The Cook's in the kitchen, but there's more likely to be a kitchen fire than a gourmet meal. Leading the Titans in receiving yards in week 1 looks good enough, but take a look at those receptions and targets. Jared Cook's four receptions finished fourth on the Titans last week, behind running (he can rush?) back Chris Johnson and receivers Kendall Wright and Damian Williams. The targets tally wasn't much better for Cook - he tied for third on the team with six of those behind Johnson and Nate Washington. Man, it's a good thing Kenny Britt wasn't there, or else... wait, he comes back this week? Well that's no good. Cook's 16.0 yards per catch looks good, until you consider his career YPC sits at 13.8 and is likely to come back down to earth a bit. And he's not a great candidate to break one deep either; his 35 yard catch against the Patriots was longer than all but two catches he had all last season as the Titans' starter. Especially with the depth at tight end, Cook should not be a starter on your team, even against a Chargers team that allowed 65 yards to Oakland's Brandon Myers last week.