Fantasy Football Tight End Streaming: Week 16 Edition
I hope that if you’re reading this article, it’s not just because you are a fan of my writing (hopefully you are), but because you’re still alive in your fantasy football league playoffs.
Week 16 marks championship rounds in the majority of fantasy leagues, meaning every lineup decision you make takes on a whole new level of importance.
Last week’s streaming tight ends all finished as top-15 fantasy options, including Zach Ertz who notched 21.8 PPR points, second-most in Week 15. Ertz saw an insane amount of targets (13) mostly in garbage time after Arizona had soundly crushed the Eagles.
Eric Ebron had a nice game as well, securing 4 catches for 79 yards on just 5 targets. His 11.9 PPR points were a reasonable outcome and one that certainly didn’t crush your hopes last week.
And finally, Zach Miller caught all 6 of his targets for 57 yards, finishing as the TE15 on the week.
As I said earlier, I hope that you’re all still alive in your playoffs and that my recommendations coming shortly can help you win a title and secure bragging rights for the entire offseason.
Let’s get to it.
Owned – ESPN: 36.9%, Yahoo: 34%
numberFire Positional Rank: 17th
With Martellus Bennett done for the season, Zach Miller has posted two strong fantasy showings in consecutive weeks, catching 11 of his 12 targets for 142 yards and 1 touchdown.
Miller has been very efficient this season, ranking second in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target among the 14 tight ends with 30 to 50 targets this season. He’s also played 97 percent of the Bears’ offensive snaps over the last two weeks, including 100 percent in Week 15.
His matchup this week is slightly below average, as the Buccaneers have allowed 7.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, 17th most in the league.
Chicago holds an implied team total of 21.25 points, which is nothing spectacular but not low enough to ignore either.
Regardless of Jeffery’s availability on Sunday, Miller makes for a decent streaming play this week. If Alshon misses outright, Miller would receive a significant upgrade.
Owned – ESPN: 26.1%, Yahoo: 31%
numberFire Positional Rank: 10th
Eric Ebron’s production has been uneven all season long, which could understandably make some fantasy owners hesitant to trust him during the most important week of the fantasy season.
Following a strong showing last week against the horrendous New Orleans Saints’ pass defense, however, Ebron makes the list again as a possible streaming option for Week 16.
Ebron has been relatively efficient with his target share this season, ranking fourth in Reception NEP per target among 14 tight ends with 40 to 70 targets this season.
His snap share actually decreased last week despite Brandon Pettigrew being out for the season, as Bear Pascoe played 36 percent of the Lions’ offensive snaps. This could simply be a function of the Lions' jumping out to an early lead against New Orleans and needing Pascoe to run block, but it’s still worth noting.
The Lions hold a 25.5-point implied team total against the San Francisco 49ers, who have allowed 7.2 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (the 21st fewest).
This play admittedly comes with risk, given Ebron’s up-and-down season, but as far as lower-owned options go, Ebron is certainly worth considering.
Owned – ESPN: 35.7%, Yahoo: 52%
numberFire Positional Rank: 11th
I understand if your skin is crawling after seeing the last two names in this article, but with no real lower-owned “home run options” on the majority of waiver wires, we’re forced to dig a bit deeper.
So with a collective clothespin on our noses, I give to you Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Seferian-Jenkins has been incredibly efficient this season, ranking second in Reception NEP per target among 22 tight ends with 20 to 40 targets. He also found the end zone last week, the first time since Week 1.
His snaps-played percentages aren’t great -- 40% over the last two games -- but he has seen a consistent amount of targets in each of the last three games (6 per game) since returning from injury.
Tampa Bay holds a healthy 24.25-point implied team total this week against the Chicago Bears, making all Buccaneers’ offensive components in play.
Despite a tough matchup (Chicago allows just 6.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends) and a relatively low fantasy floor, Seferian-Jenkins’ ceiling is quite possibly the highest of all three options listed here, making him an ideal play if you’re a heavy underdog this week.