Fantasy Football Tight End Streaming: Week 14 Edition
Despite having boatloads of data to analyze and form into forward-thinking advice, it can still be extremely difficult to predict the game of football. It’s a maddening task at times, but one that continues to drive us as fantasy analysis because of its ever elusive nature.
Scott Chandler entered Week 13 as one of the few healthy pass-catchers remaining in New England, and rewarded those who trusted him by putting up 16.1 PPR points. James White and Danny Amendola combined for 26 targets in that game, but until Rob Gronkowski returns, Chandler is still the most able-bodied red-zone target on the active roster.
We saw the Minnesota Vikings’ offense manage just 125 total yards against Seattle, making Kyle Rudolph a total non-factor. He remains an untrustworthy fantasy asset, dependent on random touchdown scoring.
And just when we thought it was safe to count Austin Seferian-Jenkins out, he made his first start since Week 2, all but eliminating Cameron Brate's chances to continue his mini-emergence. Although he caught just 3 passes for 31 yards, Seferian-Jenkins is one to keep a close eye on moving forward, especially this week.
Week 14 is a big one with many leagues starting playoff matchups. Here are some tight end options to help you survive and advance:
Owned – ESPN: 15.2%, Yahoo: 37%
numberFire Positional Rank: 9th
After waiting nearly two and a half months for Austin Seferian-Jenkins to recover from his lingering shoulder injury and return to action, we finally got our wish last week. And although the results from his first game back were underwhelming, his presence on a team lacking pass-catching playmakers (outside of Mike Evans) should not be ignored.
Seferian-Jenkins played just 30 percent of team’s snaps last week, but saw 6 targets on just 21 snaps. As he rounds back into playing shape we can assume his snap share will continue to increase. Tampa Bay has the 14th best offense according to our metrics here at numberFire, meaning scoring opportunities should be expected -- especially in this week’s matchup.
The New Orleans Saints have allowed 13.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, by far the worst in the league. The Saints also rank dead-last in pass defense efficiency when adjusted for strength of schedule according to our numbers.
With an implied 28.75 point team total in a game with a high over/under (50.5) and a relatively close spread (3.5), ASJ is an attainable piece of an offense in a game that could very well shoot out.
Owned – ESPN: 47.7%, Yahoo: 43%
numberFire Positional Rank: 15th
Normally an absolute juggernaut on offense, the Green Bay Packers have sputtered the last few weeks, headlined by Aaron Rodgers's relative struggles compared to his previous elite-level play. Even so, Rodgers is still one of the league’s best quarterbacks, making it a wise decision to buy pass-catchers attached to him.
Richard Rodgers had by far his best game of the season last week against Detroit, catching all 8 of his targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. He led the team in all three categories, becoming the preferred target in a game where the Packers were forced to fight to the bitter end.
Rodgers has seen a declining snaps percentage over the last three weeks, but should still play over 50 percent of Green Bay’s snaps with no real competition at the position.
The matchup with Dallas this week is tough as they’ve allowed just 6.1 points per game to the tight end position, 25th best in the league. But with a 29-point implied team total on his side, even if he doesn’t lead the team in targets for the second straight week, there’s a good chance Rodgers can do some damage.
Owned – ESPN: 16.2%, Yahoo: 32%
numberFire Positional Rank: 17th
I’ve still got the scars from when Owen Daniels burned me in Week 5. Granted these scars are mental, but they last nonetheless.
Recommending him this week is tough but with Vernon Davis now in the league’s concussion protocol, Daniels could be in for an increased workload this week against a familiar Oakland Raiders' team.
Since Brock Osweiler took over for Peyton Manning in Week 10, Daniels has averaged 4.8 targets per game while sharing playing time with Davis. The Broncos still have Virgil Green, but with just 10 catches this season, it’s clear they don’t view him as a pass-game priority.
Daniels has been below-average in terms of efficiency ranking 19th in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target among the 30 tight ends with 40 or more targets this season, but the matchup against Oakland is still ultra-enticing. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including 11 touchdowns.
Denver’s current 29.25 point implied team total is an encouraging sign that Daniels could redeem himself this week and help begin the healing process for many fantasy owners still feeling wronged by his Week 5 doughnut.