3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl LVII
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Patrick Mahomes Over 39.5 Passing Attempts (-102)
Super Bowl LVII kicks off this Sunday to close out the NFL season.
It's been a great year for props, and let's close it out on a high note with three props for the Super Bowl. To set the stage, the Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs where the game total is up at 50.5 points. These are two of the best offenses in the league and we are expecting some points in this one.
We turn to the great Patrick Mahomes and over 39.5 passing attempts, a mark he should be able to hit if this game stays close as the spread would indicate. Despite dealing with an ankle injury in the AFC Championship game, Mahomes was able to post 326 yards and 2 passing touchdowns on 43 passing attempts. With an extra two weeks of rest and recovery, I'm operating under the assumption he is nearly 100% -- as some reports would indicate.
When it comes to the Chiefs' offense, they are in a pass-first system. That should go without saying, they want to put the ball in the hands of their MVP quarterback. Throughout the season, the Chiefs held a 61.94% pass-play percentage, which was the eighth-highest in the league.
From 2019 to 2021, Mahomes played in nine postseason games where he averaged 39 passing attempts. The Chiefs clearly have the propensity to pass the ball in the playoffs, a clear indication this Mahomes prop has plenty of value to it.
It also helps that the Eagles' rush defense was great this season, allowing only 1,500 rushing yards to opposing running back, which was the 11th-best in the league. If the Chefs aren't able to get the offense going on the ground, they are going to turn to Mahomes and his arm, leading to over 39.5 passing attempts.
Isiah Pacheco Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts (+102)
Next up, we are looking at Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco going to under 10.5 rushing attempts.
This directly correlates with the Mahomes prop listed above and puts things in a spot where both can hit if the game plays out as the spread and total would suggest. A close, higher-scoring game with plenty of back-and-forth action.
In the first two games of these playoffs, Pacheo has racked up 12 and 10 rushing attempts, which is nothing to write home about. He's playing a modest role in their rushing game frankly due to the fact he is a rookie, and they aren't going to take the ball away from their MVP quarterback, Mahomes.
Of course, this also isn't the easiest matchup on the ground, as I noted above. The Eagles allowed the 11th-fewest (1,500) rushing yards to running backs this season. That's not an encouraging sign for Pacheco.
The game script can leave Pacheco out of touches on the ground, leading to him hitting under 10.5 rushing attempts.
A.J. Brown's Longest Reception Over 26.5 Yards (-114)
Finally, let's turn to the Eagles' wide receiver, A.J. Brown's longest reception over 26.5 yards.
Brown is an elite wide receiver but has lacked production in the first two games during the playoffs. This is no fault of his own; the Eagles have been jumping out to massive leads, and they are able to run the ball and control the clock. They haven't been in situations that require them to pass the ball at a high rate, so the wide receivers don't put up big games.
That should be changing in this matchup against the Chiefs given the fact K.C.'s offense can put up points in a hurry. That will keep this game close and give Brown more chances to really rack up the yards.
This season, Brown is carrying a 29.0% target share, 41.6% air yards share, and 12.1 average depth of target (aDOT), all of which are the highest on the Eagles. He has been their big-play guy all season, and that shouldn't be stopping now in the most important game of the season.
When it comes to the Chiefs' defense, they have been getting burned downfield by wide receivers in the playoffs. In the first two games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs allowed long receptions of 27, 35, and 37 yards.
With the Eagles in a game script that should require them to pass the ball more than they did in the first two games, Brown should be in for plenty of production against a defense that has struggled against the deep ball.