3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 17
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Dalton Schultz Any Time Touchdown (+230)
Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
An interesting game is shaping up tonight for several reasons, and it all leads me to a few player props from the Cowboys. From a top-down view, the Cowboys are huge 13.5-point favorites with a modest total sitting at 40.5. We want to use that overall game environment as a starting point for our view of the props.
Starting off, we're going with Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards (-110) and a Schultz any time touchdown (+230). For the receiving yards, this is legitimately the softest matchup you can find for a tight end. This season, the Titans have allowed 1,029 receiving yards to tight ends, which is the worst in the league. That's nearly 70 receiving yards per game, putting Schultz in a great spot.
Schultz has a projection of 41.74 receiving yards, which has him hitting the over on his total.
When it comes to the touchdown, the Cowboys have a 26.50 implied team total, so they're expected to be moving the ball and putting up plenty of points. Schultz plays a very large role for the Cowboys -- especially when it comes to the red zone.
For the season, Schultz has a 17.5% target share, and 15.8% air yards share while playing on 78.6% of the snaps. He also runs a route on 71.8% of dropbacks. Those are all relatively modest numbers overall, however, his red-zone target share is up at 24.1%, which leads the team. He has a higher red zone target share than CeeDee Lamb, which tells you he is trusted by Dak Prescott.
All of this should put Schultz in a favorable spot to have a big game and cash the over on his props.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Next up, I'm going with Ezekiel Elliott over 16.5 rushing attempts due to a clear injury situation.
That injury situation would be Tony Pollard set to be inactive tonight, putting Zeke in the driver's seat for the Cowboys' backfield. We have to take that news and add it to the fact the Titans are going to be without several of their players, which is why we see the large, 13.5-point spread.
This game script would put the Cowboys in a spot to run the ball and control the clock, giving Zeke plenty of chances to rack up carries. The Cowboys are already a run-first team, coming in with a 48.46% rush-play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league.
Coming into this game, Zeke had 15 carries or more in seven straight games -- all while splitting time with Pollard. Pollard's absence gives Zeke a projection of 18.81 rushing attempts tonight, which has him hitting the over on his prop tonight.