Monday Night Football Betting: Can Nick Foles Help the Colts Cover Against the Chargers?
The Colts are turning the offense over to Nick Foles and are 4.0-point underdogs in a game with a 45.5-point total.
How does our model see this one playing out?
Breaking Down the Matchup
The Chargers, despite their talent on offense, rank 20th in adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, according to our model. That's got a lot to do with their health.
In games through Week 13, they never really had Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, their star receiver duo, healthy at the same time. Their Offensive NEP per play through Week 13 was 0.06 with an offensive success rate of 44.1%. Those ranked them 19th and 22nd, respectively, through Week 13.
Defensively, the Chargers are just 19th overall, due to very lopsided units. Their pass defense ranks 11th; their rush defense is 32nd.
For the Colts, well, their defense is 12th overall (16th against the pass and 10th against the rush). But their offense is 31st overall and is now turning it over to Foles, who has had just 35 pass attempts since the 2020 season.
Against a top-12 pass defense and the league's worst rush defense, the Colts should burn the clock by running as much as they can, even without Jonathan Taylor healthy.
Our model prefers the over (45.5) most of all and rates that as a two-star opportunity (i.e. a two-unit wager). The projected point total here is 26.2 to 23.0 in favor of the Chargers. That tallies up to 49.2 points.
The angle of having the Colts rely on the run is putting their spread (+4.0) and moneyline (+172) into one-star territory, as well, according to numberFire's algorithm. They're just one-unit recommendations, and the over itself is the preferred play by the algorithm.
Keenan Allen Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Allen is projected for 57.6 yards against a team that is allowing the seventh-lowest catch rate over expectation (-2.2%) to receivers and the seventh-lowest yards per route run rate to wideouts (1.45) as well. Mathematically speaking, his under odds should be closer to -130, given his projection.
Deon Jackson Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - Jackson is projected for 40.9 rushing yards against a defense that allows an astounding 1.50 yards over expectation per carry to running backs, according to NextGenStats' model. That is easily the worst rate in football. His over odds should be around -135.