FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Thursday Night (Jaguars at Jets)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the visiting Jags are 1.5-point favorites in a game with a lowly 37.5-point total. That makes the implied score 19.5-18.0 in favor of the Jaguars.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
As you would expect given the game's 37.5-point total and potential weather issues (wind and rain), not many players are projecting well. Our model has just three guys pegged to score double-digit FanDuel points and no one with a projection above 13.7 FanDuel points.
Two Jags -- Travis Etienne ($14,000 on FanDuel) and Trevor Lawrence ($16,500) -- sit at the top of our projections. This is a brutal matchup for Jacksonville, though, as the Jets rank as the league's third-best defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. Gang Green sits in the top six against both the run and pass.
Etienne has played between 73% and 88% of the snaps over the past three games, and he's seen at least 16 opportunities (carries plus targets) in all three games in that span. While the bottom-line results haven't been there during that stretch -- 6.1, 3.2 and 11.7 FanDuel points -- the volume is solid, and he's the only running back on this slate who is a safe bet for a lot of touches. He paces the slate with a projection of 13.7 FanDuel points, according to our model.
Lawrence is beginning to look like a true franchise quarterback. He's thrown for 368 and 318 yards in his last two games, tossing seven total touchdowns in that span. He went for four tuddies last week versus a stiff Dallas Cowboys defense, so he can deliver in a difficult matchup. T-Law adds some juice as a runner, too, going for at least 20 rushing yards in four of his previous seven outings. We have him scoring 13.3 FanDuel points.
It's tough to tell who the masses are going to go with at MVP. Draft percentages might be really spread out. With that said, I think we can assume Zach Wilson ($15,000) won't be chalk. There are reasons to be into him, especially if he's going to be an afterthought in the multiplier spot.
The matchup is 100% there. Jacksonville is giving up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (19.8), and we have them as the sixth-worst D by our metrics. They're a pass-funnel defense, too, checking in sixth-best in run defense and third-worst versus the pass. Wilson has run for 24-plus yards three times across his last five games and just scored 20.38 FanDuel points in a similarly soft matchup last week against the Detroit Lions. Our model projects Wilson to put up 11.2 FanDuel points.
I also like Garrett Wilson ($13,500) as an MVP option. He's having a superb rookie campaign and was peppered with nine targets from Zach Wilson last week. He's been targeted at least seven times in four consecutive weeks, posting FanDuel outputs of 11.8, 10.8, 20.2 and 23.9 in that span. The Jags have permitted the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (29.6), and although we project him for just 7.9 FanDuel points, the Jets' star receiver has the upside to lead this slate in scoring.
The Jets' backfield was a fantasy nightmare last week as Zonovan Knight ($12,500) and Michael Carter ($10,000) played 48% and 52% of the snaps, respectively. Knight is working mostly on early downs while Carter is getting more of the pass-game snaps. As I just mentioned, the Jags' defense has been much better against the run than the pass. It won't help matters that the Jets are banged up on the offensive line.
Of the two, I prefer Carter, particularly once you factor in the $2,500 salary difference. Our model forecasts Carter to produce 9.2 FanDuel points, compared to Knight's projection of 6.8. Knight has some appeal as a possible under-the-radar play. If the Jets find a way to get out front, he could lead the backfield in snaps and touches.
I like Conklin best between the two. He has played at least 70% of the snaps in eight consecutive games. His target totals have been all over the place of late -- two, eight, seven and three over the past four -- but the Jaguars have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends. Conklin might slip through the cracks, too, due to C.J. Uzomah ($6,500) scoring twice last week.
On the Jacksonville side, the slate's two highest-projected receivers are Christian Kirk ($13,00) and Zay Jones ($12,000). Neither is a good point-per-dollar play -- hardly anyone is on this slate -- and the matchup is rough. However, they're both playing a ton of snaps. Kirk has been targeted at least seven times in eight straight games. Jones, fresh off a three-tud day, has seen at least seven looks in five consecutive games. Our model has Kirk going for 9.2 FanDuel points, the second-most among non-quarterbacks, and Jones for 8.1.
Evan Engram ($11,000) has been on a tear -- 25 targets, 19 catches and 224 yards over the past two games -- and it's resulted in a salary that's probably too high. On the bright side, the Jets have been slightly more forgiving to tight ends than receivers. We project Engram for only 5.8 FanDuel points.
The kickers and defenses are fully in play on a slate that's expected to be really low scoring.
It's a similar story with the D/STs. Our model projects the Jacksonville D/ST ($9,000) to put up 7.1 FanDuel points, and we see the New York Jets D/ST ($9,500) scoring 6.7. Given those salaries, the public perception of Wilson, and how well Lawrence has played lately, the Jaguars figure to be the more popular of the two D/STs. They're a fine play, but I kind of like the idea of pivoting to the Jets' defense. They're the more talented unit, and Lawrence has nine fumbles and seven picks this season.