3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 15
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
CeeDee Lamb Any Time Touchdown (+125)
This game features a solid 48.0-point over/under and a close 4.0-point spread, which means we should be in for a bit of back-and-forth action. We should be targeting player props that will reflect the scoring potential and that means going to CeeDee Lamb any time touchdown at +125.
Lamb comes in with a team-high 28.9% target share, 36.9% air yards share, 10.2 average depth of target (aDOT), while running a route on 90.6% of drop backs. Those are elite numbers across the board and being the favorite target of Dak Prescott will continuously put him in a great spot.
When it comes to the matchup against the Jaguars, Lamb should be licking his chops. While the Jaguars have allowed a modest 1,996 receiving yards to wide receivers, which is 17th in the league, they have allowed the third-most (16) receiving touchdowns.
Lamb has only one touchdown over his last four games and with the large role he plays in the Cowboys' passing attack, he should find some positive touchdown regression with this favorable matchup in front of him.
Mike Williams Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
When it comes to the Los Angeles Chargers, they love to pass the ball.
The Chargers are another offense with a high implied team total (24.75) and it points us in a very clear direction for some player props this week. They also have an incredibly soft matchup for their passing game, which they lean on in every situation.
To this point in the season, the Chargers have a big 66.82% pass play percentage, which is the second-highest in the league. Over the last three weeks, that rate has risen to 73.15%, putting them as the highest team in the league. They pass the ball early and often and it puts their pass catchers in a spot to exceed their prop totals quickly.
When it comes to their matchup against the Tennessee Titans, it couldn't be better. The Titans have allowed the second-most (3,688) passing yards to quarterbacks this season and the second-most (2,488) receiving yards to wide receivers. They are, arguably, the worst pass defense in the league and now face an offense set on passing the ball on almost every play.
When it comes to Mike Williams, he returned last week from his ankle injury and went for an eye-popping 116 yards, 6 receptions, and a touchdown. He's looking back in top form and although he only has a 17.6% target share this season, he's played in only nine games.
However, if we look a bit further we see he has a 34% air yards share, averaging 88.1 air yards per game, with a 12.0 aDOT, while running a route on 75.1% of drop backs. tw
His big-play ability will put him in a great spot against a very weak defense to hit the over on 64.5 yards.
Joe Burrow Under 270.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Lastly, I'm going with Joe Burrow under 274.5 passing yards this week.
There's no doubt Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback but this is certainly a tough matchup for him against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We've also seen the Cincinnati Bengals' offense change a bit in the last few weeks, so let's jump in.
The Buccaneers continue to boast a strong defense and have allowed the sixth-fewest (2,539) passing yards this season, which is good for just 195.3 yards per game. They keep the opposing quarterbacks under wraps this year so much so that just a single opponent -- Geno Smith with 275 yards in Week 10 -- has gone over the passing prop this season.
When it comes to the Bengals' offense, they have been passing the ball less in recent games. For the entire year, they have a 60.66% pass play percentage, putting them as the 12th highest in the league. That has dropped to 54.40% over the last three weeks, which is 20th in the league.
That has led to Burrow posting 270 yards or fewer in two of the last three games, a trend that could certainly continue this week against a very tough pass defense.
All of this has Burrow projected for 263.98 passing yards, putting him under his prop this week.