FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Thursday Night (49ers at Seahawks)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the 49ers are 3.5-point favorites in a game with a 43.5-point total. That makes the implied score 23.5-23.0 in favor of San Francisco.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
There's a lot to like with CMC right now. He has scored 28.3 and 24.6 FanDuel points in the two games since Elijah Mitchell went back on the shelf. He got 10 targets in the one competitive game of those two, and the Seahawks have been ripped to shreds by running backs this year, giving up the second-most FanDuel points per game to the position (26.6). We project CMC for 18.0 FanDuel points, a slate-high mark.
Per usual, both quarterbacks are in play as MVP options.
Let's start with Brock Purdy ($15,000), who has looked pretty darn good so far for the Niners. He produced 15.3 FanDuel points off the bench two weeks ago and followed it up with 21.7 FanDuel points last time out against a solid Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Seattle's defense is better against the pass than the run, but the 'Hawks have permitted 30, 23 and 40 points the past three games to teams quarterbacked by Sam Darnold, John Wolford and Derek Carr, respectively. If the 49ers' touchdowns come via the air, Purdy -- who we have scoring 14.7 FanDuel points -- could be the optimal MVP, and he's surrounded by excellent weapons.
Geno Smith ($14,500) continues to be a consistent fantasy option, scoring between 19.20 and 23.98 FanDuel points in four consecutive games. This is a brutal matchup, though. San Fran is holding quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest FanDuel points per game (13.7), and Geno struggled mightily in the first meeting with the 49ers, racking up just 7.08 FanDuel points. While all that is true and valid, it will likely keep Smith's MVP popularity in check, making him a fun leverage play.
With Kenneth Walker III ($12,500) practicing fully on Tuesday, all of Walker, Tyler Lockett ($11,500) and D.K. Metcalf ($12,000) are on the MVP radar, as well. We project each for between 12.0 and 12.5 FanDuel points, although it's a brutal matchup for all of them. Of the three, I'm most into Lockett, whose big-play prowess makes him an appealing multiplier. He's scored a tuddy in six straight outings and has logged 21 targets over the past two games.
Let's dive into the aforementioned Metcalf and Walker real quickly. The full practice for Walker likely means he's close to 100%, but he has to face a 49ers defense that has surrendered just 13.5 FanDuel points per game to running backs, the fewest in the league. The matchup coupled with Walker coming off an injury makes him a scary play, but it could also keep the masses away.
As for Metcalf, he's been outstanding of late; he just hasn't had the touchdown luck Lockett has. DK has seen at least eight looks in each of the past four games, including a 15-target game in that span, and he's surpassed the 70-yard mark in all four contests. He's just as good of a play as Lockett is, and we project them nearly equally -- 12.5 FanDuel points for Lockett and 12.1 for Metcalf.
I love the salaries for Noah Fant ($7,000) and Will Dissly ($6,500). Unfortunately, as is the case for all of Seattle's offense, these two have a bad matchup as San Fran has held tight ends to just 6.4 FanDuel points per game, the fourth-fewest. I still might take a shot on one of these guys and hope for either a big play or a touchdown. Fant has topped Dissly in snaps in two straight games, but he's seen only six total targets over that stretch, compared to Dissly's five. We project Fant and Dissly for 4.5 and 4.0 FanDuel points, respectively.
On the San Francisco side, with Deebo Samuel out, Brandon Aiyuk ($13,000) and George Kittle ($10,500) could see a few more looks. Even before factoring in salaries, I prefer Kittle to Aiyuk. The quality play from Seattle's corners has funneled targets to tight ends. Seattle has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (13.3), and they've given up the fifth-fewest FanDuel points per game to wideouts (23.8).
Despite the bad matchup against the Seahawks' secondary, Jauan Jennings ($8,500) and Ray-Ray McCloud ($7,000) are viable low-salary darts who each climb a spot on the target totem pole sans Deebo. Once Samuel went out last week, McCloud saw the bigger jump in role between he and Jennings, playing 44% of the snaps. McCloud hadn't played more than 14% of the snaps in any of San Fran's previous four games. Jennings' snap rate has been between 26% and 41% in each of his past seven games.
Our model is kind of into Niners backup running back Jordan Mason ($7,000). He gets the same dope matchup CMC gets, and Mason has garnered 19 carries across the last two games, although that's likely a bit inflated due to last week's lopsided win. He's looked good with the volume, rushing for 107 yards in those two games. We forecast Mason to total 6.9 FanDuel points and rate him as the best point-per-dollar play among anyone salaried under $11,500.
While our model much prefers the San Francisco D/ST ($10,000) to the Seattle D/ST ($8,500) -- projections of 8.3 and 6.2 FanDuel points, respectively -- I don't mind the Seattle defense. This is Purdy's first-ever road start, and he's making it on a short week. Adding in the $1,500 salary difference, I'd rather roll the dice on the Seattle D/ST.