NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 14
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Percentile (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Percentile (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | $8,700 | 23.4 | 2.67 | 17.4 | 29.6 | 42.2% | 1.48 |
| Josh Allen | $8,700 | 23.1 | 2.65 | 17.1 | 29.1 | 40.5% | 1.37 |
| Joe Burrow | $8,300 | 21.3 | 2.55 | 16.0 | 26.6 | 31.6% | 1.12 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,800 | 21.1 | 2.41 | 15.3 | 26.6 | 30.6% | 0.77 |
| Geno Smith | $7,700 | 19.7 | 2.62 | 14.4 | 26.0 | 28.7% | 1.31 |
| Dak Prescott | $8,000 | 19.4 | 2.36 | 13.8 | 24.5 | 22.8% | 0.73 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,500 | 18.2 | 2.47 | 13.6 | 23.5 | 17.6% | 0.94 |
| Jared Goff | $7,100 | 17.9 | 2.55 | 12.8 | 23.0 | 17.6% | 1.08 |
| Deshaun Watson | $7,000 | 17.3 | 2.45 | 11.9 | 22.6 | 15.6% | 0.88 |
| Tyler Huntley | $7,000 | 16.1 | 2.33 | 11.0 | 21.1 | 11.5% | 0.66 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,200 | 15.6 | 2.22 | 10.5 | 20.6 | 10.9% | 0.51 |
| Daniel Jones | $6,900 | 15.3 | 2.27 | 10.8 | 20.7 | 9.4% | 0.62 |
| Kenny Pickett | $6,600 | 15.0 | 2.26 | 10.2 | 19.9 | 9.2% | 0.65 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,700 | 14.7 | 2.21 | 10.0 | 19.8 | 8.5% | 0.54 |
| Russell Wilson | $6,500 | 14.2 | 2.23 | 9.7 | 18.9 | 6.1% | 0.55 |
| Sam Darnold | $6,600 | 13.5 | 2.02 | 8.3 | 18.2 | 6.1% | 0.36 |
| Brock Purdy | $6,500 | 13.4 | 2.07 | 9.0 | 17.9 | 4.9% | 0.39 |
| Tom Brady | $7,100 | 13.4 | 1.89 | 9.2 | 18.3 | 5.0% | 0.26 |
| Mike White | $6,800 | 12.9 | 1.87 | 8.6 | 17.4 | 4.0% | 0.25 |
| Davis Mills | $6,300 | 11.7 | 1.79 | 7.2 | 15.7 | 2.6% | 0.23 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $9,000 | 17.4 | 1.89 | 12.0 | 22.4 | 37.3% | 1.58 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,500 | 16.4 | 1.87 | 10.6 | 21.6 | 31.2% | 1.41 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,700 | 15.6 | 1.76 | 10.3 | 21.1 | 29.0% | 1.14 |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,200 | 15.3 | 1.83 | 9.5 | 19.8 | 24.4% | 1.20 |
| Joe Mixon | $8,500 | 15.1 | 1.76 | 9.6 | 20.1 | 25.8% | 1.01 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,200 | 14.0 | 1.94 | 9.1 | 18.5 | 20.5% | 1.55 |
| Tony Pollard | $7,500 | 13.5 | 1.80 | 8.3 | 18.3 | 19.1% | 1.04 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,400 | 13.4 | 1.54 | 8.4 | 17.5 | 16.6% | 0.55 |
| Travis Etienne | $7,400 | 13.0 | 1.77 | 8.3 | 17.5 | 15.0% | 1.04 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $8,000 | 12.4 | 1.47 | 6.9 | 16.7 | 13.8% | 0.49 |
| Latavius Murray | $6,200 | 12.0 | 1.96 | 7.2 | 16.9 | 11.4% | 1.50 |
| Miles Sanders | $7,100 | 11.5 | 1.66 | 6.7 | 15.9 | 10.1% | 0.69 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $6,900 | 11.3 | 1.73 | 7.5 | 16.1 | 11.8% | 0.88 |
| Dameon Pierce | $6,500 | 11.2 | 1.70 | 6.9 | 15.4 | 8.0% | 0.94 |
| Najee Harris | $6,700 | 11.0 | 1.66 | 6.7 | 15.4 | 8.7% | 0.79 |
| Rachaad White | $6,800 | 10.8 | 1.65 | 6.7 | 15.2 | 8.4% | 0.72 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $7,300 | 10.4 | 1.44 | 5.5 | 15.6 | 10.5% | 0.50 |
| Travis Homer | $5,800 | 10.2 | 1.76 | 5.8 | 14.4 | 7.1% | 0.94 |
| James Cook | $6,100 | 9.5 | 1.63 | 5.4 | 14.0 | 6.2% | 0.74 |
| Jamaal Williams | $7,000 | 9.2 | 1.28 | 4.8 | 13.7 | 4.5% | 0.32 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,600 | 8.6 | 1.33 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 3.7% | 0.35 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $5,400 | 8.3 | 1.59 | 4.4 | 12.6 | 2.4% | 0.70 |
| Zonovan Knight | $6,300 | 8.1 | 1.21 | 3.7 | 11.7 | 2.2% | 0.29 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | $5,500 | 7.7 | 1.35 | 2.9 | 11.9 | 2.4% | 0.50 |
| Michael Carter | $6,300 | 7.2 | 1.21 | 3.7 | 11.5 | 1.6% | 0.22 |
| Samaje Perine | $7,800 | 6.4 | 0.86 | 2.8 | 10.7 | 1.1% | 0.05 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,700 | 6.3 | 1.15 | 2.1 | 10.5 | 1.2% | 0.24 |
| Gus Edwards | $6,200 | 6.2 | 0.98 | 2.0 | 9.8 | 0.7% | 0.13 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $6,000 | 6.2 | 0.97 | 2.4 | 9.8 | 0.6% | 0.14 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $5,500 | 6.1 | 1.14 | 3.0 | 9.8 | 0.4% | 0.21 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,000 | 5.2 | 1.11 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 0.1% | 0.21 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | $5,300 | 5.0 | 0.95 | 1.6 | 8.5 | 0.1% | 0.16 |
| Jaylen Warren | $5,000 | 4.0 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 0.2% | 0.11 |
| Jordan Mason | $5,200 | 4.0 | 0.79 | 1.0 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,800 | 4.0 | 0.74 | 0.1 | 7.4 | 0.1% | 0.12 |
| Alexander Mattison | $5,500 | 3.9 | 0.74 | 0.1 | 8.2 | 0.3% | 0.12 |
| Ty Johnson | $5,200 | 3.8 | 0.65 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 0.0% | 0.07 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $9,300 | 16.6 | 1.85 | 11.9 | 23.1 | 48.5% | 1.38 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $8,600 | 16.1 | 1.90 | 11.9 | 20.8 | 43.4% | 1.68 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,700 | 15.6 | 1.84 | 10.3 | 21.1 | 42.6% | 1.20 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $8,200 | 15.2 | 1.82 | 9.9 | 19.7 | 35.9% | 1.15 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,500 | 15.1 | 1.85 | 9.6 | 20.9 | 40.0% | 1.16 |
| A.J. Brown | $8,400 | 14.3 | 1.69 | 9.3 | 19.5 | 32.9% | 0.91 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,900 | 13.5 | 1.71 | 8.8 | 18.8 | 30.3% | 1.00 |
| Tyler Lockett | $7,700 | 12.8 | 1.69 | 8.1 | 17.8 | 26.4% | 0.87 |
| Tee Higgins | $7,800 | 12.7 | 1.61 | 7.7 | 17.4 | 24.6% | 0.68 |
| Christian Kirk | $7,600 | 11.8 | 1.54 | 6.9 | 16.3 | 20.6% | 0.57 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,100 | 11.5 | 1.64 | 7.8 | 15.4 | 13.5% | 0.70 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,300 | 11.3 | 1.58 | 6.7 | 16.4 | 20.3% | 0.68 |
| DeVonta Smith | $7,000 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 6.8 | 16.3 | 19.3% | 0.81 |
| Garrett Wilson | $7,200 | 10.8 | 1.50 | 6.2 | 15.0 | 12.8% | 0.48 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,900 | 10.8 | 1.52 | 5.7 | 15.3 | 16.5% | 0.63 |
| Gabriel Davis | $6,200 | 10.2 | 1.54 | 4.7 | 14.7 | 14.3% | 0.73 |
| Chris Godwin | $7,500 | 10.0 | 1.31 | 5.9 | 13.9 | 9.1% | 0.22 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,500 | 9.8 | 1.50 | 5.4 | 13.9 | 10.2% | 0.56 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,500 | 9.6 | 1.51 | 5.5 | 13.5 | 10.2% | 0.48 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,400 | 9.5 | 1.47 | 5.6 | 13.9 | 10.9% | 0.54 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,600 | 9.4 | 1.41 | 5.4 | 13.1 | 7.3% | 0.38 |
| Zay Jones | $6,300 | 9.2 | 1.45 | 5.1 | 13.8 | 11.1% | 0.57 |
| Michael Gallup | $6,000 | 8.8 | 1.37 | 4.1 | 12.7 | 7.5% | 0.47 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,900 | 8.5 | 1.43 | 5.2 | 11.9 | 4.5% | 0.42 |
| Mike Evans | $7,000 | 8.5 | 1.21 | 4.2 | 12.7 | 8.6% | 0.24 |
| Darius Slayton | $6,300 | 8.3 | 1.36 | 4.0 | 12.9 | 9.8% | 0.43 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $6,100 | 8.2 | 1.37 | 4.0 | 12.5 | 7.3% | 0.44 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,800 | 8.2 | 1.34 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 5.9% | 0.43 |
| Chris Moore | $5,300 | 8.2 | 1.55 | 4.9 | 11.7 | 4.1% | 0.63 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,700 | 8.0 | 1.18 | 4.2 | 11.4 | 4.3% | 0.20 |
| Robert Woods | $5,800 | 7.7 | 1.29 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 4.3% | 0.39 |
| George Pickens | $6,300 | 7.7 | 1.21 | 3.6 | 11.7 | 6.1% | 0.27 |
| D.J. Chark | $5,700 | 7.6 | 1.29 | 3.3 | 11.7 | 6.3% | 0.40 |
| Kendall Hinton | $5,100 | 7.1 | 1.40 | 3.5 | 10.8 | 2.3% | 0.48 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $5,900 | 6.7 | 1.18 | 3.4 | 10.5 | 2.4% | 0.23 |
| Corey Davis | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.13 | 2.8 | 10.3 | 2.4% | 0.27 |
| Phillip Dorsett | $4,900 | 6.4 | 1.27 | 2.0 | 9.9 | 3.5% | 0.42 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $5,600 | 6.4 | 1.14 | 3.3 | 9.6 | 0.5% | 0.15 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | $5,500 | 6.1 | 1.15 | 3.0 | 9.7 | 0.9% | 0.21 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,300 | 5.9 | 1.10 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 1.1% | 0.22 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $5,500 | 5.9 | 1.15 | 2.7 | 10.6 | 2.8% | 0.30 |
| Quez Watkins | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.07 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 1.7% | 0.17 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,400 | 5.7 | 1.07 | 2.1 | 9.9 | 1.3% | 0.20 |
| Devin Duvernay | $5,600 | 5.3 | 0.90 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 0.6% | 0.10 |
| Julio Jones | $5,400 | 5.3 | 1.00 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 0.9% | 0.15 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | $5,500 | 5.3 | 0.96 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 1.2% | 0.12 |
| Richie James | $5,400 | 5.1 | 0.95 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 0.3% | 0.08 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,200 | 4.7 | 0.93 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.06 |
| Elijah Moore | $5,400 | 4.5 | 0.85 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 0.7% | 0.10 |
| Josh Reynolds | $5,500 | 4.4 | 0.78 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 0.4% | 0.08 |
| David Bell | $4,900 | 4.2 | 0.88 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 0.2% | 0.11 |
| Skyy Moore | $5,100 | 4.1 | 0.76 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 0.4% | 0.09 |
| Noah Brown | $5,100 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 0.1% | 0.09 |
| Jauan Jennings | $5,500 | 3.9 | 0.70 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 0.0% | 0.02 |
| Marquise Goodwin | $5,200 | 3.5 | 0.63 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 0.3% | 0.08 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,000 | 14.3 | 1.78 | 9.7 | 19.0 | 44.8% | 1.07 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,800 | 10.6 | 1.53 | 5.7 | 15.0 | 24.9% | 0.61 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,500 | 9.2 | 1.41 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 16.5% | 0.42 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,800 | 8.7 | 1.52 | 5.1 | 12.7 | 14.0% | 0.58 |
| Dalton Schultz | $6,200 | 8.6 | 1.37 | 4.9 | 12.5 | 12.4% | 0.37 |
| Greg Dulcich | $5,400 | 8.4 | 1.59 | 4.5 | 13.2 | 16.6% | 0.79 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | $4,800 | 6.3 | 1.31 | 2.6 | 10.1 | 4.6% | 0.42 |
| David Njoku | $5,600 | 6.3 | 1.11 | 2.4 | 9.7 | 5.6% | 0.22 |
| Daniel Bellinger | $4,800 | 6.0 | 1.26 | 3.1 | 9.2 | 3.1% | 0.33 |
| Evan Engram | $5,100 | 6.0 | 1.18 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 4.5% | 0.26 |
| George Kittle | $5,900 | 6.0 | 1.03 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 4.8% | 0.14 |
| Noah Fant | $5,200 | 5.9 | 1.13 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 3.8% | 0.23 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,900 | 5.9 | 1.15 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 2.5% | 0.27 |
| Dawson Knox | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.06 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 4.5% | 0.28 |
| Jordan Akins | $4,700 | 5.2 | 1.13 | 2.5 | 8.3 | 1.3% | 0.20 |
| Tyler Conklin | $4,900 | 4.8 | 1.01 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 1.2% | 0.16 |
| Brevin Jordan | $4,600 | 4.1 | 0.83 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 0.8% | 0.10 |
| Isaiah Likely | $4,600 | 3.8 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 0.4% | 0.09 |
| Will Dissly | $4,600 | 3.6 | 0.71 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 0.2% | 0.07 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | $4,600 | 3.5 | 0.75 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 1.1% | 0.13 |
