3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 13
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Mike Evans Any Time Touchdown (+150)
We're looking at a close 3.0-point spread in favor of the Buccaneers and a modest over/under of 41.5, but we are here to look at some player props. We'll start with Mike Evans and his touchdown prop at +150.
Evans has a truly strong role in the Buccaneers' passing offense but hasn't found the end zone since Week 3. This season, Evans has a 20.5% target share, 36.4% air yards share, 18.0% red zone target share, and 13.2 average depth of target (aDOT), all while playing on 84.0% of the snaps and running a route on 87.6% of drop backs.
This is where he's been for a few seasons, but the touchdowns haven't been there this year. Hopefully, this matchup will allow him to put up some big numbers and find the end zone, as the Saints' secondary has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards (1,882) and the 13th-most touchdowns (11) to wide receivers this season.
The Buccaneers have a 66.4% pass play percentage, which is the second-highest in the league, indicating they will continue to rely on the passing game for offensive production. This will allow Evans' touchdown prop to be in play regardless of the game script or matchup.
Alvin Kamara Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Saints' offense hasn't been great in recent weeks, but Alvin Kamara has found a way to be consistent.
The consistency comes in the passing game for Kamara, and that's why I'm looking at over 28.5 receiving yards. Kamara has hit the over in four of his last five games, a mark he can reach tonight.
Kamara has a 20.6% target share, which is the second-highest on the team and good for 6.5 targets per game. He's been effective with those targets and comes in with 13.35 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the 10th-highest in the league among running backs with at least 40 targets.
The Saints are only 3.0-point underdogs, but if they fall further behind, it will put them into a passing game script, something that would only benefit Kamara's receiving prop.
All of this has Kamara projected for 35.05 receiving yards, putting him over his prop tonight.
Andy Dalton Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Finally, let's look at the under on Andy Dalton's passing prop tonight.
The Saints' offense has been all over the place this season in terms of production and faces a tough test tonight against the Buccaneers' defense. While I like Kamara to go over his receiving prop, going under total passing yards for Dalton still makes sense.
The Buccaneers are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards (192.0) per game this season and check in with the sixth-best pass defense overall, per our metrics.
While Dalton looked good earlier in the season, that has all changed quickly, and he has hit the under on this prop in three of his last four games, averaging 212 passing yards in this span.
Dalton comes in projected for only 201.69 passing yards, which would have him hitting the under on his prop.