Monday Night Football Betting: Can Colt McCoy Help Arizona Cover the Spread in Mexico City?
This week’s finale takes us to Arizona for a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals. The big news of the day (though not very surprising) is that the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, Kyler Murray, will miss tonight’s game and could be out through the team’s week 13 bye.
Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):
|San Francisco 49ers||1.83||11||27||9||9||9|
Inside the Standard Bets
Our model is leaning toward the 49ers, expecting them to win outright 72.1% of the time. The Cardinals have settled in as 9.5-point underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook after the line jumped up a bit on the news Murray will be out tonight. Our model gives Arizona the edge against the spread (ATS), setting the likelihood they’ll cover at 59.5%.
FanDuel’s odds for the Fightin’ Colt McCoy’s (that is, the Cardinals) to cover are set at -106 (51.5% implied probability) with their moneyline odds sitting at +350 (22.2% implied). Taking Arizona to win outright is a one-star wager, and the Cardinals with the points is a two-star bet, per our model. The spread is the best value among standard wagers.
The total here is 43.5 points, and numberFire’s model estimates that the mark is eclipsed 60.6% of the time. That's another one-star wager against these 52.0% implied odds at -105.
Player Prop Value Bets
Are the 49ers stingy against the run? Yep -- they sit at or near the top of the league against the run in most standard statistical categories. So, you may think to either skip or take the under on any James Conner rushing bet, but who else is going to be given any carries?
The team released Eno Benjamin as soon as Conner was ready for a full workload, and Keaontay Ingram saw exactly one carry in each of the last two games. Last week, Conner rushed 21 times in Colt Mcoy's first start filling in for Kyler, so expect Conner to shoulder another heavy workload tonight.
Our model also likes Deebo Samuel to go over his receiving yardage prop line of 50.5 yards (-110) with an estimated receiving production of 66.1 yards. He has beaten this line in three of his last four games active against Arizona (he was injured for both 2021 meetings), and he has been used more as a traditional receiver of late, averaging only 2.2 rush attempts since Week 4. Deebo has seen an average of 7.8 targets in that span.
– While the 49ers are 3-6 this season against the over, all three overs have come in their past six games.
– Over the last two seasons, Arizona is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 outright against San Francisco.
– Colt McCoy started Arizona’s Week 9 victory over the 49ers in San Francisco in 2021.
– The handle is tight with 52% of the spread money on the Cardinals, and they're getting 60% of the spread wagers, as well.