3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Tee Higgins Any Time Touchdown (+150)
A classic AFC North matchup adds another chapter this week where the Bengals have a 22.0 implied team total and are 3.5-point road favorites. While they may be known for their defense in years past, the Steelers haven't shown us anything this season that makes them a team to avoid. In fact, we have been actively targeting the Steelers all season for player props.
The Steelers' secondary is struggling this season to the tune of 1,792 receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, which is the fourth-most in the league, along with the most (13) touchdowns allowed to the position.
Over the past two weeks since Ja'Marr Chase has been out for the Bengals, Tee Higgins is tied for the team-high with a 21.9% target share, while controlling a 37.8% air yards share, which is the highest on the team. Higgins also carries a 28.6% red zone target share, tied for the second-highest on the team.
Higgins has been solid throughout the season, coming in with 47.97 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP) and 0.81 Receiving NEP per target. both of which are in the top 20 of the league for wide receivers with at least 30 targets.
It's one of the softest matchups in the league for wide receivers, and with Higgins playing an expanded role in the Bengals' passing game, he is in a great spot to find the end zone.
David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Chicago Bears have a very favorable matchup for the rushing game this week, and we want to take a look at a player prop that reflects that.
With a 23.25 implied team total, the Bears are near the top tier of teams this week, and that shouldn't be a surprise since the matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is an easy one. To this point in the season, the Falcons have allowed the 11th-most (998) rushing yards to running backs. We've been attacking the Falcons via the rushing game all season, and there's no reason to stop now.
When we look at the Bears' offense, they lead the league with a 59.60% rushing play percentage aka the most run-heavy team this season. They love to run the ball, and that should put David Montgomery in an elite spot this week since the Bears put Khalil Herbert on injured reserve.
Herbert accounted for 44.81% of the Bears' running back rushing attempts with Montgomery sitting at 47.72%. It's been a near split for the two this season and that has impacted Montgomery's production overall, making it a bit inconsistent, but that should change with Herbert now on IR.
An increase in his snap count and rushing attempts put Montgomery in an advantageous spot -- especially with this matchup to pile up the yards on the ground.
All of this has Montgomery projected for 70.0 rushing yards, hitting the hover on his prop total this week.
Daniel Jones Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The Giants are looking strong this season, and they've done so by sticking to their game plan, which is running the ball. The New York Football Giants come in with a 53.63% rush-play percentage, which is the third-highest in the league, giving them the third-lowest (46.37%) pass-play percentage.
They aren't throwing the ball at a high volume, and that has led to Jones posting under 220 passing yards in all nine of his game this season. Seven of those games have been under 200 passing yards. They will continue to rely on Saquon Barkley and the rushing game -- the point of the offense that has brought them success this season.
That rushing success should continue this week against the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the seventh-most (1,020) rushing yards to running backs this season. This should put the Giants in a spot to move on the ball on the ground against a weak Lions' run defense, thus limiting Jones' need to pass the ball often.
This all points to Jones posting under 200.5 passing yards for the eighth time this season.