3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 11
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Ryan Tannehill Under 26.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
A very modest 41.5-point over/under is where we see tonight's game sitting with the home Packers favored by just 3.5 points. The game total suggests there won't be a ton of offense in this game, and we want to target some props that reflect that, starting with Ryan Tannehill falling short of 26.5 passing attempts.
We have to come at this prop from a few different directions, but they all point to Tannehill hitting the under tonight. What do we know about the Titans' offense? They love to run the ball and come in with a 53.86% rush play percentage, which is the third-highest in the league. That gives them the third-lowest (46.14%) pass-play percentage.
This is not breaking news; they've been rushing the ball via Derrick Henry for many seasons, and that's their game plan. This matchup against the Packers is one of the best in the league to attack on the ground. Green Bay's defense has allowed 1,228 rushing yards to running backs, which is the second-most in the league. This is the first main part of why Tannehill will hit the under tonight.
The Titans love to run the ball and now have a matchup where should be able to exploit that. This will put them in a spot where Tannehill won't need to be passing the ball at a high volume since they can be so successful on the ground with Henry.
Next, we need to look at the Packers' passing defense, which is actually elite. They have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards (1,902) and the fifth-fewest passing attempts (281) to quarterbacks this season. This puts Tannehill in a difficult spot to be successful in the passing game, which is another sign pointing to under 26.5 passing attempts tonight.
Allen Lazard Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Allen Lazard has a solid role in the Packers' offense and a great matchup tonight.
The Titans' defense has been one of the worst against the pass, and this is a clear matchup for the Packers to attack tonight. Through Week 10, the Titans have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers (1,702), putting Lazard in a favorable matchup.
Lazard comes in with a team-high 20.8% target share, 32.9% air yards share, and 12.1 average depth of target (aDOT). He has become the new go-to option for Aaron Rodgers. That's an encouraging sign in an offense that has struggled at times this season.
Lazard has gone over this 48.5 total in three of his last five games and has a matchup tonight that should allow that type of production.
All of this has Lazard projected for 63.66 receiving yards, hitting the over here by a clear margin.
Austin Hooper Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Here's another under for the Titans, and this time, it's with Austin Hooper's receiving total.
Under 22.5 receiving yards is the spot I'm going for Hooper tonight, and much of this plays into what was mentioned above for Ryan Tannehill. The Titans love the run the ball, the Packers have a terrible run defense, and the Packers have an elite pass defense.
The Packers have allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season (271), which is another sign of their elite pass defense.
Considering Hooper has a very modest 12.4% target share in the Titans' passing offense -- which is very limited to begin with -- he won't be the primary receiving option tonight. Hooper has hit the under on this 22.5 mark in seven of his nine games this season.