Monday Night Football Betting: What Are the Chances Washington Covers the Lopsided Spread?

Week 10 finishes with a matchup in the NFC Beast as the Washington Commanders drive up I-95 to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are looking to take both games against Washington for the second season in a row.

Here is how numberFire ranks each team heading into tonight’s game using our nERD metric and Net Expected Points (NEP):

TeamnERDnERD RankRush Off NEP RankPass Off NEP RankRush Def NEP RankPass Def NEP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles10.75233285
Washington Commanders-3.24242726122

This game has the widest gap in nERD rating of any Monday night game so far this year (13.99 points).

Inside the Standard Bets

As you would expect, our model is leaning heavily toward the undefeated Eagles, expecting them to win outright 80.0% of the time.

Things are tighter when it comes to the spread. The Commanders -- who are 4-5 overall and 3-2 in their last five games -- are 11.5-point underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook. Our model gives Washington the edge against the spread (ATS), putting the likelihood they’ll cover at 55.7%. The price for Washington to cover is set at -114 (53.3% implied probability). Taking the Commanders to cover is a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation).

You know what’s better than one-star wagers? Three stars -- and that’s the rating we have for the over at this 42.5-point total line. The price for the over is -115 (53.5% implied), and our algorithm has the ovr hitting 65.3% of the time -- which is the best value among the standard bets.

Player and Team Prop Value Bets

Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert's receiving yardage prop is 45.5 yards (-110), and our player projections have his receiving production at 65.7 yards. He has eclipsed this prop line four out of his last six games against Washington, so the over looks like the way to go.

Philadelphia leads the league in first-half scoring (20.1 points) while the Commanders are next to last in first-half scoring (6.0 points). The first-half spread is set at Philly -6.5 (-120 odds), and that is a nice value given the disparity in first-half scoring between these two squads in 2022.

Final Notes

-- The Eagles have covered in each of their four home games this season.
– Since the start of the 2021 season, the Eagles have had five games in which the point total was 42.5 or lower, and the over has hit in each one.
– On the spread, 63% of the spread money and 58% of the tickets are backing Philly.