NFL

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 10

Fantasy football is a volatile game.

Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.

It happens. A lot.

And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.

That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.

Table Terms

FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.

Quarterback

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
25+
%
Boom/
Bust
Patrick
Mahomes
$8,500 24.52.8318.729.944.4%2.49
Josh
Allen
$9,200 23.92.5718.529.644.9%1.35
Justin
Fields
$8,300 20.62.4914.726.030.3%0.94
Tua
Tagovailoa
$8,100 19.92.4914.425.125.9%0.89
Daniel
Jones
$7,500 17.62.3111.922.615.8%0.66
Dak
Prescott
$7,400 17.42.3512.322.215.0%0.69
Trevor
Lawrence
$7,000 16.42.4011.521.611.6%0.73
Jacoby
Brissett
$7,000 16.02.2410.421.111.9%0.61
Aaron
Rodgers
$6,700 15.92.4011.320.911.1%0.82
Jared
Goff
$7,200 15.92.1710.320.510.9%0.49
Derek
Carr
$7,100 15.82.2311.120.79.5%0.53
Kirk
Cousins
$7,300 15.12.0510.619.57.9%0.32
Kenny
Pickett
$6,600 14.92.289.920.48.7%0.66
Sam
Ehlinger
$6,400 14.82.269.619.46.7%0.63
Russell
Wilson
$6,900 14.72.1710.019.77.9%0.50
Davis
Mills
$6,500 13.32.028.418.14.6%0.38
Andy
Dalton
$6,800 13.11.918.217.74.7%0.27
Ryan
Tannehill
$6,700 12.91.918.117.53.8%0.24
John
Wolford
$6,100 10.81.805.715.72.3%0.27
Kyler
Murray
$7,800 8.30.993.312.61.0%0.02
Matthew
Stafford
$6,700 7.61.103.111.50.5%0.03

Running Back

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
20+
%
Boom/
Bust
Derrick
Henry
$9,400 19.92.0813.625.246.8%2.33
Saquon
Barkley
$9,500 19.12.0012.824.844.9%1.78
Josh
Jacobs
$8,400 17.22.0911.922.636.5%2.02
Alvin
Kamara
$8,600 16.91.9911.422.334.5%1.70
Dameon
Pierce
$7,700 16.02.0610.621.029.6%2.01
Travis
Etienne
$8,000 15.81.9910.321.332.1%1.73
Jonathan
Taylor
$7,000 15.72.2811.021.330.5%2.94
Nick
Chubb
$9,000 14.11.528.918.921.7%0.60
Dalvin
Cook
$7,500 13.51.818.918.720.3%1.17
Tony
Pollard
$7,000 13.11.918.717.616.0%1.39
Aaron
Jones
$7,200 11.91.647.317.314.2%0.91
James
Conner
$6,300 11.81.897.216.612.8%1.33
Jamaal
Williams
$7,400 11.21.516.416.212.3%0.57
Jeff
Wilson
$6,500 11.01.716.016.110.3%0.87
Devin
Singletary
$5,600 10.61.935.716.010.2%1.29
David
Montgomery
$6,700 10.51.626.015.38.9%0.72
D'Andre
Swift
$6,800 10.31.505.914.98.5%0.58
A.J.
Dillon
$7,000 9.11.305.313.22.7%0.29
Raheem
Mostert
$5,900 8.81.514.812.93.7%0.57
Kareem
Hunt
$5,800 8.81.474.512.93.9%0.57
Najee
Harris
$6,400 8.41.344.412.72.8%0.37
Jaylen
Warren
$5,300 8.41.624.212.94.2%0.76
Darrell
Henderson
$6,100 8.21.323.812.63.5%0.41
Clyde
Edwards-Helaire
$6,200 7.41.183.211.51.3%0.26
Khalil
Herbert
$5,800 7.41.293.211.41.3%0.35
Latavius
Murray
$5,700 7.31.273.211.61.8%0.38
Isiah
Pacheco
$6,200 7.21.182.511.82.4%0.31
Melvin
Gordon
$5,700 7.11.262.910.71.9%0.28
Jerick
McKinnon
$5,500 6.51.182.810.30.5%0.29
Eno
Benjamin
$5,500 6.01.122.09.70.6%0.24
Dontrell
Hilliard
$5,700 5.50.951.88.80.2%0.12
Rex
Burkhead
$4,800 5.21.182.28.80.1%0.26
Ezekiel
Elliott
$7,000 4.70.662.37.10.0%0.00
Chase
Edmonds
$5,100 4.40.790.77.50.0%0.12
Nyheim
Hines
$5,500 4.20.691.07.30.1%0.07
Cam
Akers
$5,500 4.10.690.07.50.7%0.11

Wide Receiver

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
17.5+
%
Boom/
Bust
Tyreek
Hill
$9,000 18.22.0513.223.755.5%2.34
Stefon
Diggs
$9,100 16.01.7710.321.444.2%1.01
Davante
Adams
$8,500 15.61.8410.121.342.2%1.27
Justin
Jefferson
$8,600 15.11.699.820.336.2%1.00
Cooper
Kupp
$9,200 14.71.629.920.338.0%0.72
Amon-Ra
St.
Brown
$6,900 14.52.1410.219.032.0%2.64
Jaylen
Waddle
$8,200 13.71.618.317.926.7%0.66
CeeDee
Lamb
$7,600 13.11.738.017.826.0%0.89
DeAndre
Hopkins
$8,300 12.71.598.618.528.8%0.71
Amari
Cooper
$7,800 12.71.617.817.926.6%0.74
JuJu
Smith-Schuster
$7,000 11.91.677.815.916.9%0.84
Christian
Kirk
$6,800 11.31.636.316.219.6%0.84
Allen
Lazard
$6,700 11.01.686.515.920.3%0.89
Michael
Pittman
Jr.
$6,300 10.91.827.215.315.0%1.13
Chris
Olave
$7,500 10.71.475.516.520.0%0.54
Diontae
Johnson
$6,600 10.51.586.114.915.2%0.66
Darnell
Mooney
$6,200 9.91.615.314.713.4%0.72
George
Pickens
$5,600 9.71.735.114.314.1%0.95
Jerry
Jeudy
$6,400 9.71.495.013.910.4%0.55
Gabriel
Davis
$6,500 9.51.484.514.413.5%0.56
Courtland
Sutton
$6,200 9.21.524.614.412.3%0.64
Donovan
Peoples-Jones
$5,700 8.91.554.213.59.9%0.72
Adam
Thielen
$5,900 8.71.495.212.65.6%0.55
Brandin
Cooks
$6,100 8.71.454.912.76.9%0.45
Michael
Gallup
$5,700 8.51.444.112.77.8%0.57
Marquez
Valdes-Scantling
$5,400 8.41.593.413.310.1%0.74
Mack
Hollins
$5,500 8.41.433.912.48.3%0.58
Zay
Jones
$5,500 8.21.453.812.55.5%0.61
Marvin
Jones
$5,400 7.81.423.212.05.9%0.56
Kalif
Raymond
$5,300 7.81.524.312.05.1%0.63
Wan'Dale
Robinson
$5,600 7.31.264.010.41.5%0.27
Robert
Woods
$5,600 7.31.333.910.92.5%0.37
Rondale
Moore
$5,800 7.31.244.49.90.2%0.15
Chase
Claypool
$5,800 7.01.253.011.45.5%0.34
Allen
Robinson
$5,700 6.51.162.411.24.3%0.34
Nico
Collins
$5,500 6.11.101.89.82.6%0.25
Darius
Slayton
$5,800 6.11.101.910.72.6%0.27
Noah
Brown
$5,200 6.11.202.99.70.9%0.26
Kenny
Golladay
$5,000 5.91.241.59.82.9%0.36
Jarvis
Landry
$5,500 5.81.052.39.21.2%0.15
Tom
Kennedy
$4,800 5.51.122.28.90.4%0.25
Alec
Pierce
$5,500 5.41.041.89.41.6%0.20
Parris
Campbell
$5,400 5.10.952.08.10.1%0.10
Christian
Watson
$5,400 4.90.922.08.30.9%0.11
Sammy
Watkins
$5,100 4.80.901.18.20.7%0.14
Isaiah
McKenzie
$5,200 4.60.941.87.70.0%0.08
K.J.
Osborn
$5,200 4.50.831.27.30.5%0.07
Kadarius
Toney
$5,500 4.40.781.37.50.3%0.06
Samori
Toure
$5,000 4.20.851.17.50.0%0.10
Keelan
Cole
$4,700 4.00.870.57.60.4%0.19

Tight End

Player Sal FDP Val 25
Pct
75
Pct
15+
%
Boom/
Bust
Travis
Kelce
$8,500 16.21.9411.821.257.6%1.64
T.J.
Hockenson
$6,000 8.61.455.212.311.6%0.44
Pat
Freiermuth
$5,600 8.01.494.812.512.7%0.61
Foster
Moreau
$5,200 7.81.523.811.611.8%0.61
Greg
Dulcich
$5,900 7.51.253.611.810.5%0.37
Dalton
Schultz
$5,500 7.51.343.910.76.4%0.36
Evan
Engram
$4,900 6.81.413.310.15.2%0.46
Zach
Ertz
$6,300 6.71.063.010.66.5%0.15
Taysom
Hill
$6,500 6.10.912.39.34.1%0.07
Robert
Tonyan
$5,000 6.01.222.89.63.5%0.32
Mike
Gesicki
$5,100 5.81.152.29.35.1%0.30
Tyler
Higbee
$6,000 5.80.931.610.06.3%0.17
Dawson
Knox
$5,000 5.81.141.99.45.2%0.30
Cole
Kmet
$5,300 5.51.021.19.65.3%0.27
Harrison
Bryant
$4,800 5.51.111.49.65.0%0.32
Austin
Hooper
$4,600 4.40.971.57.40.6%0.19
Brock
Wright
$4,500 4.40.940.87.61.4%0.19
Kylen
Granson
$4,400 4.20.931.27.11.1%0.17
Juwan
Johnson
$4,800 3.90.790.27.42.0%0.13
Chigoziem
Okonkwo
$4,400 3.70.840.36.60.9%0.16