NFL Daily Fantasy Football Ceiling and Floor Projections: Week 10
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Average FDP (FDP): A player's average FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected average FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x average value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 3x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2.25x versus less than 1.25x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,500 | 24.5 | 2.83 | 18.7 | 29.9 | 44.4% | 2.49 |
| Josh Allen | $9,200 | 23.9 | 2.57 | 18.5 | 29.6 | 44.9% | 1.35 |
| Justin Fields | $8,300 | 20.6 | 2.49 | 14.7 | 26.0 | 30.3% | 0.94 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $8,100 | 19.9 | 2.49 | 14.4 | 25.1 | 25.9% | 0.89 |
| Daniel Jones | $7,500 | 17.6 | 2.31 | 11.9 | 22.6 | 15.8% | 0.66 |
| Dak Prescott | $7,400 | 17.4 | 2.35 | 12.3 | 22.2 | 15.0% | 0.69 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $7,000 | 16.4 | 2.40 | 11.5 | 21.6 | 11.6% | 0.73 |
| Jacoby Brissett | $7,000 | 16.0 | 2.24 | 10.4 | 21.1 | 11.9% | 0.61 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $6,700 | 15.9 | 2.40 | 11.3 | 20.9 | 11.1% | 0.82 |
| Jared Goff | $7,200 | 15.9 | 2.17 | 10.3 | 20.5 | 10.9% | 0.49 |
| Derek Carr | $7,100 | 15.8 | 2.23 | 11.1 | 20.7 | 9.5% | 0.53 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,300 | 15.1 | 2.05 | 10.6 | 19.5 | 7.9% | 0.32 |
| Kenny Pickett | $6,600 | 14.9 | 2.28 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 8.7% | 0.66 |
| Sam Ehlinger | $6,400 | 14.8 | 2.26 | 9.6 | 19.4 | 6.7% | 0.63 |
| Russell Wilson | $6,900 | 14.7 | 2.17 | 10.0 | 19.7 | 7.9% | 0.50 |
| Davis Mills | $6,500 | 13.3 | 2.02 | 8.4 | 18.1 | 4.6% | 0.38 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,800 | 13.1 | 1.91 | 8.2 | 17.7 | 4.7% | 0.27 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,700 | 12.9 | 1.91 | 8.1 | 17.5 | 3.8% | 0.24 |
| John Wolford | $6,100 | 10.8 | 1.80 | 5.7 | 15.7 | 2.3% | 0.27 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,800 | 8.3 | 0.99 | 3.3 | 12.6 | 1.0% | 0.02 |
| Matthew Stafford | $6,700 | 7.6 | 1.10 | 3.1 | 11.5 | 0.5% | 0.03 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $9,400 | 19.9 | 2.08 | 13.6 | 25.2 | 46.8% | 2.33 |
| Saquon Barkley | $9,500 | 19.1 | 2.00 | 12.8 | 24.8 | 44.9% | 1.78 |
| Josh Jacobs | $8,400 | 17.2 | 2.09 | 11.9 | 22.6 | 36.5% | 2.02 |
| Alvin Kamara | $8,600 | 16.9 | 1.99 | 11.4 | 22.3 | 34.5% | 1.70 |
| Dameon Pierce | $7,700 | 16.0 | 2.06 | 10.6 | 21.0 | 29.6% | 2.01 |
| Travis Etienne | $8,000 | 15.8 | 1.99 | 10.3 | 21.3 | 32.1% | 1.73 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $7,000 | 15.7 | 2.28 | 11.0 | 21.3 | 30.5% | 2.94 |
| Nick Chubb | $9,000 | 14.1 | 1.52 | 8.9 | 18.9 | 21.7% | 0.60 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,500 | 13.5 | 1.81 | 8.9 | 18.7 | 20.3% | 1.17 |
| Tony Pollard | $7,000 | 13.1 | 1.91 | 8.7 | 17.6 | 16.0% | 1.39 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,200 | 11.9 | 1.64 | 7.3 | 17.3 | 14.2% | 0.91 |
| James Conner | $6,300 | 11.8 | 1.89 | 7.2 | 16.6 | 12.8% | 1.33 |
| Jamaal Williams | $7,400 | 11.2 | 1.51 | 6.4 | 16.2 | 12.3% | 0.57 |
| Jeff Wilson | $6,500 | 11.0 | 1.71 | 6.0 | 16.1 | 10.3% | 0.87 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,600 | 10.6 | 1.93 | 5.7 | 16.0 | 10.2% | 1.29 |
| David Montgomery | $6,700 | 10.5 | 1.62 | 6.0 | 15.3 | 8.9% | 0.72 |
| D'Andre Swift | $6,800 | 10.3 | 1.50 | 5.9 | 14.9 | 8.5% | 0.58 |
| A.J. Dillon | $7,000 | 9.1 | 1.30 | 5.3 | 13.2 | 2.7% | 0.29 |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,900 | 8.8 | 1.51 | 4.8 | 12.9 | 3.7% | 0.57 |
| Kareem Hunt | $5,800 | 8.8 | 1.47 | 4.5 | 12.9 | 3.9% | 0.57 |
| Najee Harris | $6,400 | 8.4 | 1.34 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 2.8% | 0.37 |
| Jaylen Warren | $5,300 | 8.4 | 1.62 | 4.2 | 12.9 | 4.2% | 0.76 |
| Darrell Henderson | $6,100 | 8.2 | 1.32 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 3.5% | 0.41 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $6,200 | 7.4 | 1.18 | 3.2 | 11.5 | 1.3% | 0.26 |
| Khalil Herbert | $5,800 | 7.4 | 1.29 | 3.2 | 11.4 | 1.3% | 0.35 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,700 | 7.3 | 1.27 | 3.2 | 11.6 | 1.8% | 0.38 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $6,200 | 7.2 | 1.18 | 2.5 | 11.8 | 2.4% | 0.31 |
| Melvin Gordon | $5,700 | 7.1 | 1.26 | 2.9 | 10.7 | 1.9% | 0.28 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $5,500 | 6.5 | 1.18 | 2.8 | 10.3 | 0.5% | 0.29 |
| Eno Benjamin | $5,500 | 6.0 | 1.12 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 0.6% | 0.24 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,700 | 5.5 | 0.95 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 0.2% | 0.12 |
| Rex Burkhead | $4,800 | 5.2 | 1.18 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 0.1% | 0.26 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $7,000 | 4.7 | 0.66 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| Chase Edmonds | $5,100 | 4.4 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,500 | 4.2 | 0.69 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 0.1% | 0.07 |
| Cam Akers | $5,500 | 4.1 | 0.69 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.7% | 0.11 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
17.5+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | $9,000 | 18.2 | 2.05 | 13.2 | 23.7 | 55.5% | 2.34 |
| Stefon Diggs | $9,100 | 16.0 | 1.77 | 10.3 | 21.4 | 44.2% | 1.01 |
| Davante Adams | $8,500 | 15.6 | 1.84 | 10.1 | 21.3 | 42.2% | 1.27 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,600 | 15.1 | 1.69 | 9.8 | 20.3 | 36.2% | 1.00 |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,200 | 14.7 | 1.62 | 9.9 | 20.3 | 38.0% | 0.72 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $6,900 | 14.5 | 2.14 | 10.2 | 19.0 | 32.0% | 2.64 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $8,200 | 13.7 | 1.61 | 8.3 | 17.9 | 26.7% | 0.66 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,600 | 13.1 | 1.73 | 8.0 | 17.8 | 26.0% | 0.89 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $8,300 | 12.7 | 1.59 | 8.6 | 18.5 | 28.8% | 0.71 |
| Amari Cooper | $7,800 | 12.7 | 1.61 | 7.8 | 17.9 | 26.6% | 0.74 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,000 | 11.9 | 1.67 | 7.8 | 15.9 | 16.9% | 0.84 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,800 | 11.3 | 1.63 | 6.3 | 16.2 | 19.6% | 0.84 |
| Allen Lazard | $6,700 | 11.0 | 1.68 | 6.5 | 15.9 | 20.3% | 0.89 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,300 | 10.9 | 1.82 | 7.2 | 15.3 | 15.0% | 1.13 |
| Chris Olave | $7,500 | 10.7 | 1.47 | 5.5 | 16.5 | 20.0% | 0.54 |
| Diontae Johnson | $6,600 | 10.5 | 1.58 | 6.1 | 14.9 | 15.2% | 0.66 |
| Darnell Mooney | $6,200 | 9.9 | 1.61 | 5.3 | 14.7 | 13.4% | 0.72 |
| George Pickens | $5,600 | 9.7 | 1.73 | 5.1 | 14.3 | 14.1% | 0.95 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,400 | 9.7 | 1.49 | 5.0 | 13.9 | 10.4% | 0.55 |
| Gabriel Davis | $6,500 | 9.5 | 1.48 | 4.5 | 14.4 | 13.5% | 0.56 |
| Courtland Sutton | $6,200 | 9.2 | 1.52 | 4.6 | 14.4 | 12.3% | 0.64 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.55 | 4.2 | 13.5 | 9.9% | 0.72 |
| Adam Thielen | $5,900 | 8.7 | 1.49 | 5.2 | 12.6 | 5.6% | 0.55 |
| Brandin Cooks | $6,100 | 8.7 | 1.45 | 4.9 | 12.7 | 6.9% | 0.45 |
| Michael Gallup | $5,700 | 8.5 | 1.44 | 4.1 | 12.7 | 7.8% | 0.57 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,400 | 8.4 | 1.59 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 10.1% | 0.74 |
| Mack Hollins | $5,500 | 8.4 | 1.43 | 3.9 | 12.4 | 8.3% | 0.58 |
| Zay Jones | $5,500 | 8.2 | 1.45 | 3.8 | 12.5 | 5.5% | 0.61 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,400 | 7.8 | 1.42 | 3.2 | 12.0 | 5.9% | 0.56 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,300 | 7.8 | 1.52 | 4.3 | 12.0 | 5.1% | 0.63 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | $5,600 | 7.3 | 1.26 | 4.0 | 10.4 | 1.5% | 0.27 |
| Robert Woods | $5,600 | 7.3 | 1.33 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 2.5% | 0.37 |
| Rondale Moore | $5,800 | 7.3 | 1.24 | 4.4 | 9.9 | 0.2% | 0.15 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,800 | 7.0 | 1.25 | 3.0 | 11.4 | 5.5% | 0.34 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,700 | 6.5 | 1.16 | 2.4 | 11.2 | 4.3% | 0.34 |
| Nico Collins | $5,500 | 6.1 | 1.10 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 2.6% | 0.25 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,800 | 6.1 | 1.10 | 1.9 | 10.7 | 2.6% | 0.27 |
| Noah Brown | $5,200 | 6.1 | 1.20 | 2.9 | 9.7 | 0.9% | 0.26 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,000 | 5.9 | 1.24 | 1.5 | 9.8 | 2.9% | 0.36 |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,500 | 5.8 | 1.05 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 1.2% | 0.15 |
| Tom Kennedy | $4,800 | 5.5 | 1.12 | 2.2 | 8.9 | 0.4% | 0.25 |
| Alec Pierce | $5,500 | 5.4 | 1.04 | 1.8 | 9.4 | 1.6% | 0.20 |
| Parris Campbell | $5,400 | 5.1 | 0.95 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.10 |
| Christian Watson | $5,400 | 4.9 | 0.92 | 2.0 | 8.3 | 0.9% | 0.11 |
| Sammy Watkins | $5,100 | 4.8 | 0.90 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 0.7% | 0.14 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $5,200 | 4.6 | 0.94 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.08 |
| K.J. Osborn | $5,200 | 4.5 | 0.83 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 0.5% | 0.07 |
| Kadarius Toney | $5,500 | 4.4 | 0.78 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 0.3% | 0.06 |
| Samori Toure | $5,000 | 4.2 | 0.85 | 1.1 | 7.5 | 0.0% | 0.10 |
| Keelan Cole | $4,700 | 4.0 | 0.87 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 0.4% | 0.19 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $8,500 | 16.2 | 1.94 | 11.8 | 21.2 | 57.6% | 1.64 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $6,000 | 8.6 | 1.45 | 5.2 | 12.3 | 11.6% | 0.44 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,600 | 8.0 | 1.49 | 4.8 | 12.5 | 12.7% | 0.61 |
| Foster Moreau | $5,200 | 7.8 | 1.52 | 3.8 | 11.6 | 11.8% | 0.61 |
| Greg Dulcich | $5,900 | 7.5 | 1.25 | 3.6 | 11.8 | 10.5% | 0.37 |
| Dalton Schultz | $5,500 | 7.5 | 1.34 | 3.9 | 10.7 | 6.4% | 0.36 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | 6.8 | 1.41 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 5.2% | 0.46 |
| Zach Ertz | $6,300 | 6.7 | 1.06 | 3.0 | 10.6 | 6.5% | 0.15 |
| Taysom Hill | $6,500 | 6.1 | 0.91 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 4.1% | 0.07 |
| Robert Tonyan | $5,000 | 6.0 | 1.22 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 3.5% | 0.32 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,100 | 5.8 | 1.15 | 2.2 | 9.3 | 5.1% | 0.30 |
| Tyler Higbee | $6,000 | 5.8 | 0.93 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 6.3% | 0.17 |
| Dawson Knox | $5,000 | 5.8 | 1.14 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 5.2% | 0.30 |
| Cole Kmet | $5,300 | 5.5 | 1.02 | 1.1 | 9.6 | 5.3% | 0.27 |
| Harrison Bryant | $4,800 | 5.5 | 1.11 | 1.4 | 9.6 | 5.0% | 0.32 |
| Austin Hooper | $4,600 | 4.4 | 0.97 | 1.5 | 7.4 | 0.6% | 0.19 |
| Brock Wright | $4,500 | 4.4 | 0.94 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 1.4% | 0.19 |
| Kylen Granson | $4,400 | 4.2 | 0.93 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 1.1% | 0.17 |
| Juwan Johnson | $4,800 | 3.9 | 0.79 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 2.0% | 0.13 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | $4,400 | 3.7 | 0.84 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 0.9% | 0.16 |
