3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 9
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Chris Olave Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Chris Olave Any Time Touchdown (+150)
This game features a solid 46.5-point total, and the home Saints set at 1.5-point underdogs. The Saints' offense has been cookin' this season, averaging 394 yards per game with nearly 25 points per game. They are a perfect spot to look for some player props.
We can turn to Chris Olave for a touchdown prop (+150) and over 64.5 receiving yards. The rookie wide receiver has played a solid role in the Saints' passing game, which should get him to the yardage prop, so let's dive in.
To this point in the season, Olave has played on 66.2% of the offensive snaps and is running a route on 84.0% of drop backs. He owns team-highs with a 26.3% target share, 42.2% air yards market share, 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT). He's got the second-highest (23.3%) red zone target share.
The 42.2% air yards share is most notable for Olave in regards to the over 64.5 receiving yards since the player with the next highest air yards share is Tre'Quan Smith at only 16.0%. This means when the Saints take shots downfield for big plays, Olave is the number-one option by a longshot.
The matchup against the Ravens' secondary is a very good one as Baltimore has allowed the third-most (1,584) receiving yards to wide receivers this season as well as the sixth-most (8) touchdowns.
All of this should put Olave in a great spot to have big plays downfield to help his yardage prop and find his way into the end zone.
Lamar Jackson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
When it comes to the Ravens, they are decimated by injuries, and that's putting it nicely.
No, this isn't a CVS receipt, this is the Ravens' injury report for tonight's game. Mark Andrews is out. Rashod Bateman is out for the year. J.K. Dobbins is out. Gus Edwards is doubtful. Demarcus Robinson is questionable. This puts their offense in a very questionable spot outside of one player, Lamar Jackson.
I'm not saying Jackson is going to have to turn into Superman tonight for the Ravens to win this game, but it certainly feels that way. But what does Jackson playing Superman look like? What does entail? How would the Ravens win this game with the lack of talent and consistency around Jackson? It likely means Jackson is going to improvise a ton -- on top of the Ravens' normal offensive tendencies.
The Ravens come in with a 48.15% rush play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league. This is nothing new, they've leaned on the rushing game over the past few years, but Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill don't scream upside, especially against a Saints defense that allows the 11th-fewest (116.0) rushing yards per game.
In no surprise, Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 32.50 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) and 0.51 Rushing NEP per carry, which is the third-highest among quarterbacks with at least 30 rushing attempts.
This should put Jackson in a spot to continuously carry the offense -- no pun intended -- both from his normal rushing plays along with improvised scrambles due to the lack of pass-catching consistency around him. This should lead to over 58.5 rushing yards for Jackson tonight.