3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 8
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
A.J. Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Eagles are rocking a big 27.00 implied team total this week, and given how strong their offense has been, it won't be a surprise to see them cruise past that. They are getting it done in all areas this season, but we want to focus on the passing game, specifically, with A.J. Brown.
Brown has been elite this season and comes in with 45.78 Receiving Net Expected Points (NEP), which is the eighth-best in the league among wide receivers. On top of that, he has 0.86 Net Expected Points per target, the ninth-best among wide receivers with at least 30 targets.
He's crushing it each and every week for the Eagles to the tune of a 30.8% target share, 45.1% air yards share, and 10.0 average depth of target (aDOT) while playing on 83.0% of snaps.
All of that should continue this week against the Steelers' secondary, who have struggled massively this season. To this point, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most (1,467) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
Brown is projected for 76.02 receiving yards, going over his prop this week.
Tony Pollard Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Pollard is set to be the starting running back for the Dallas Cowboys, who carry a 26.25 implied team total at home against the Chicago Bears. This presents an uptick in usage for Pollard, who already had a solid role to begin with.
Zeke has played on 61.6% of the offensive snaps this season while Pollard wasn't that far behind at 46.0%. Zeke is averaging 15.6 rushing attempts per game and Pollard is averaging 9.6 attempts. The point being, Pollard isn't stepping into some role he won't be able to handle -- this is just an increase for him.
When it comes to the Bears' defense, they have allowed 784 rushing yards to opposing running backs, which is the seventh-most in the league. This is one of the easier matchups on the slate, and with the Cowboys being 10.0-point home favorites, they should be in a spot to run the ball with the lead.
Pollard has crossed this prop mark three times in his last five games, all of which came while splitting snaps with Elliott. Our projections have Pollard going for 87.97 rushing yards, which has him hitting the over on his prop.
Dameon Pierce Over 2.5 Receptions (-108)
Pierce has been one of the shining stars for the Texans this season and is primed for another big game. Recently, Pierce has seen his role in the passing game increase by a notable amount. He's racked up 15 targets, 13 receptions, and 47 yards over the last three weeks.
If we compare this to the first three weeks, we see a clear change for him. In Weeks 1-3, Pierce had 4 targets, 4 receptions, and 35 yards. That level of involvement in the passing game should bode well for him against the Tennessee Titans, who have the 10th-worst pass defense, per our metrics.
This has led the Titans to allow the eighth-most (38) receptions to opposing running backs. These are all good signs for Pierce, who is projected for 3.24 receptions this week, going over his prop total.