5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 7
There isn't a better starting point for unearthing values for FanDuel NFL contests than numberFire's projection tool.
Users can easily view the entire player pool or sort by position to see statistical projections for all players in FanDuel's player pool. Additionally, the column for value provides a sortable way to view which players offer the most bang for your buck, showing users the player's point-per thousand dollars of salary.
But, of course, factors such as a team's implied total and the game's spread are integral for decision-making. Fortunately, numberFire patrons can peruse the Heat Map for that information and a wealth of other goodies.
Nevertheless, other considerations help inform my selection. So, this is your home for finding the five FanDuel values I'm targeting weekly for their main slate. Check this week's picks below.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,300)
The rookie running back toted the rock 21 times for 97 yards and one touchdown. In addition, he had two receptions for 13 yards on three targets.
Walker's playing time and usage were also encouraging. First, he had a 70.77 percent snap share. Second, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Walker ran 15 routes in Week 6, and DeeJay Dallas ran only 12. So, Walker might not be at risk of getting phased out in a negative game script.
Still, Walker's rushing chops are the most compelling reason for using him. According to PFF, Walker had the most missed tackles forced (88 MTF) on rush attempts in FBS last year. Fortunately, Walker has remained an elusive runner in the NFL. Walker's 12 MTF on 21 attempts in Week 6 were the second-most on carries by a running back in a week this season.
Walker has an alluring matchup for adding to his rushing totals this week. The Los Angeles Chargers have the 12th-worst rush defense in our team power rankings. Further, according to Pro Football Reference, the Chargers have yielded the sixth-most rushing yards (694) to running backs this year at a blistering 5.83 yards per attempt.
Finally, while the Seahawks are 6.5-point underdogs, the game's total of 51.5 points is inviting, namely if the Seahawks can exceed expectations and keep it close.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,900)
The game total I cited above is exciting for D.K. Metcalf as well.
Further, if the Seahawks are forced into catch-up mode, Metcalf should be busy in a decent matchup. According to our metrics, the Chargers are a mid-pack pass defense. In addition, according to Football Outsiders, the Chargers have allowed 70.3 receiving yards per game to No. 1 wideouts. That's a pinch above the league average (69.6).
Tyler Lockett isn't a slouch in the passing game, but Metcalf is more productive and involved. Since Week 4, Metcalf has led Seattle in targets (25), receptions (14), receiving yards (271), and Air Yards (339). The physically-imposing wideout is also a perfect matchup fit against Los Angeles's defense.
According to PFF, the league average for man coverage through Week 5 this year was 29.4 percent, and the Chargers were in man coverage 40.8 percent of the time. Meanwhile, Metcalf is a man-beating monster. Per PFF, Metcalf was tied for fifth in yards per route run (3.30 Y/RR) out of 71 wideouts with at least 20 targets against man coverage in 2021. This year, Metcalf is fourth (4.40 Y/RR) out of 86 receivers targeted at least five times in man coverage.
So, I love Metcalf's chances of eating this week.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans ($5,600)
Nico Collins has taken a step forward in his sophomore campaign.
The big-bodied wideout is an efficient vertical weapon. First, he's 19th out of 78 receivers targeted at least 20 times this year in yards per route run (1.99 Y/RR). Second, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Collins is tied for the 10th-deepest average depth of target (14.4-yard aDOT) among wideouts targeted at least 20 times in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders have a lousy pass defense and haven't been any great shakes against deep passes. The Raiders are the third-worst pass defense this year by our measure, and they've allowed quarterbacks to complete 17 of 33 passes to travel at least 15 air yards this year for 477 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Therefore, Collins is a nifty matchup-based value.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos ($4,000)
The reasonably-athletic tight end was third on the Broncos in routes (27) in Week 6, hauling in two receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown on three targets.
Thankfully, the matchup is advantageous for him this week. The New York Jets have ceded the eighth-most receiving yards per game (60.0) this season, notably higher than the league average (50.5).
Unfortunately, Russell Wilson didn't come out of Monday's game unscathed. Instead, he's considered day-to-day after suffering a hamstring injury late in the Week 6 Monday Night Football contest. Still, even if Wilson can't play, that doesn't eliminate Dulcich from FanDuel consideration.
Dulcich has a low bar to clear for providing value at the minimum salary. Finally, backup Brett Rypien has made an NFL start, completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions against the Jets in Week 4 of 2020. So, he's at least demonstrated the ability to move the ball at the professional level. Thus, Dulcich is an exciting punt this week, regardless of who's under center for Denver.
Bengals, DST, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,600)
Thankfully, the offense got back on track, creating optimism for them to stake the defense to good game scripts in the future, starting with this week.
The outlook is nice for a good game script for them this week, as the Cincinnati Bengals are 6.5-point favorites against the visiting Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons would like to run to their heart's content, but they'll have to air it out if they're in a negative game script.
Thankfully, Marcus Mariota dropping back to pass is a recipe for fantasy points for Cinci's defense. According to Pro Football Reference, Mariota has the sixth-highest interception rate (2.9 percent) and third-highest sack rate (9.3 percent) among qualified quarterbacks in 2022.
So, the Bengals can make up for last week's showing as home favorites this week, making them a tasty value at under $4,000.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.