3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 6
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Mike Williams Any Time Touchdown (+130)
Week 6 of the NFL season ends on Monday Night with the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Denver Broncos. The total for this game sits at 45.5 points with the home Chargers being favored by 4.5 points, so let's jump into some props.
Starting off, Mike Williams to score a touchdown at +130 is one of my favorite bets in this game.
We know that Keenan Allen is listed as doubtful, which should continue to push Williams into a large role in the passing offense. Allen hasn't played since Week 1, and in that time, Willams is playing on 88.8% of the snaps and running a route on 93.0% of drop backs. He has a 25.5% target share, massive 45.2% air yards share, and 24.0% red zone target share. All of those are either the highest or tied for the highest on the Chargers since Week 1.
Williams comes in with 24 targets over the last two weeks and hasn't found the end zone in either of those games. He's heavily involved in the offense and due for a touchdown -- there's no other way to put it.
Justin Herbert Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-108)
Next, we turn to Justin Herbert and the over on 35.5 passing attempts.
The Chargers are a pass-heavy team and come in with a 61.56% pass-play percentage, which is the 14th-highest in the league. This has led to Herbert averaging 40 passing attempts per game and going over the 35.5 mark in three of the five games this season.
Last week, the Chargers had a very balanced offensive approach against the Cleveland Browns and ended with a 50.72% pass-play percentage. That is a clear departure from their normal passing rate (61.56%) and should indicate they are due for some positive regression to their previously established rate.
The spread of this game is only 4.5 points, which tells us we are expected to see a close back-and-forth game. That should allow the Chargers to run their normal offense and keep the ball in Herbert's hands, giving him plenty of time and opportunities to hit the over on 35.5 passing attempts.
Courtland Sutton Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
When it comes to the Broncos' passing offense, Courtland Sutton is the main option.
If you've been following the NFL this season, you know the Broncos' offense hasn't been good. You could even say that it's been terrible; I won't debate you on that. While that might be true, what is also true is that Sutton is producing plenty of yards in spite of the team's offensive shortcomings.
Sutton has hit the over on 68.5 receiving yards in four of the five games this season, racking up five or more receptions in each of the last four.
This shouldn't be a surprise since Sutton comes in with a team-high 28.2% target share, 41.1% air yards share, and a 12.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Sutton has long receptions of 30, 35, 34, and 51 yards in four of the five games this season, showing he is the clear downfield target. This should allow him to pick up big chunk plays and hit the over.
Add all of this up, and our projections have Sutton going for 73.68 yards, hitting the over on this prop.