3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 1
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had this week.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Each and every week I'll be bringing separate prop bets articles for Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and the Sunday main slate.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Courtland Sutton Any Time Touchdown (+155)
While this game is headlined by the fact Russell Wilson is going up against the team -- the Seattle Seahawks -- that traded him in the offseason, we want to focus on player props. That has me immediately looking at the Broncos' wide receivers for a few options.
Courtland Sutton is the number one wide receiver for the Broncos and should be the primary focus of their passing offense. There have been many reports throughout training camp stating that Sutton is Wilson's favorite target. While this might be a bit of speculation, Sutton's previous history from 2020 supports it.
The Seahawks' secondary is also ranked 30th in the league, according to PFF. This is an immensely favorable matchup for Sutton, who is coming off a strong season.
Last year, Sutton posted a 0.67 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per Target, which was 27th in the league among wide receivers with at least 90 targets.
Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 Receptions (-108)
Nearly everything that was said above can be repeated here.
Sutton is a great receiver and has a great matchup versus the Seahawks' secondary. The Broncos are carrying a strong 25.00 implied team total and should be able to move the ball on offense. Sutton has established a strong connection with Russell Wilson in training camp.
numberFire's projections have Suttong going for 4.77 receptions and 62.38 yards. The projection is super close, but with the matchup being this favorable, I'll side with -108 odds for the over, compared to -118 odds for the under.
Geno Smith Under 30.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Next up is the under on Geno Smith's passing attempts.
That total is sitting at 30.5, and the under is the only spot I'm looking at. Last season, Smith started four games for the Seahawks while Russell Wilson was out with a hand injury. During those four games, Smith hit the under on 30.5 passing attempts three times, averaging 23.75 attempts per game.
The Seahawks have a low 18.50 implied team total, and we have to combine this with the fact Geno Smith simply isn't good. There's really no other way to put it. Last season, Smith finished with a 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back compared to the league average of 0.10. He also finished with a 42.59% passing success rate, compared to the league average of 47.1%.
A bad quarterback in a bad offense leads to an "under" bet on props more often than not.