NFL Betting Guide: 2022 Hall of Fame Game (Raiders vs. Jaguars)
It doesn't take much to get us excited about NFL action, and even a game with a 30.5-point total between the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars with backups in action can get us there.
That's what we'll get for tonight's Hall of Fame Game.
FanDuel Sportsbook sets the line at 2.5 points in favor of the Raiders, and there are -110 odds on both sides of the total (again, 30.5 points).
What stands out?
Raiders at Jaguars
Over 30.5 (-110)
The under has historically been the right bet for preseason games. However, this is the lowest total we have seen in preseason action since 2019. In 14 games with totals of 32.5 or lower, the over is 8-6 (57.1%), and those games have outperformed the over/under by 3.43 points, on average.
The total has ticked up from 30.0, as well, indicating some action on the over already -- but we sure haven't missed the boat with the total still at 30.5.
The quarterbacks in action will be Jake Luton (primarily) and Kyle Sloter for the Jaguars and a combination of Jarrett Stidham (primarily), Nick Mullens, and Chase Garbers for the Raiders.
Via NextGenStats, Sloter leads all quarterbacks in preseason EPA added since 2016, and Luton is no slouch either. He's recorded 190 yards and 2 touchdowns on his 31 preseason attempts, good for 0.33 EPA added per drop back.
Stidham holds an 8.1 yards-per-attempt average on 90 preseason attempts in this span, as well.
First-Half Over 16 (+100)
If we feel okay betting the over, then it stands to reason that we would be into the first-half total even at 16.0 points (with +100 odds on the over).
Why? Well, in 2021, first-half totals averaged 18.2 points, and second-half totals fell to 17.6. This is a really low number to begin with, and scoring is generally higher in the first half in the preseason (for obvious talent-based reasons).
Raiders -2.5 (-115)
At a neutral site (not that home-field is a huge help in the preseason), the Raiders find themselves favored by 2.5 points.
Since 2019, teams favored by 2.5 points in the preseason have a 69.2% win rate and a 61.5% cover rate.
The tight spread favors the favorites, and it isn't until we get to the larger spreads where it makes sense to take the points with the underdogs.