NFL Draft Betting: What Is Malik Willis' Most Likely Landing Spot?
The NFL Draft draws near, and the next generation of NFL talent is about to find their first NFL team.
To add to the excitement, we have no real shortage of NFL Draft betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The one I'm keying on here is the landing spot for Liberty Flames quarterback Malik Willis. Here are the odds for each team to draft Willis as well as the team distribution we see over the 100 most recent mock drafts for Willis, according to NFL Mock Draft Database.
|Team to Draft|
|Past 100 Mocks||FanDuel Sportsbook Odds|
|New Orleans Saints||11.0%||+350|
|New York Giants||1.0%||+2000|
We're seeing a wider range of team selections on Willis than we do for Kenny Pickett (whose betting odds I broke down previously). Willis is mocked to two teams at a 22.0% rate: the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers -- two teams both heavily linked to Pickett, as well.
The betting market very much prefers the Steelers (+200) to the Panthers (+400), but you can see where I'm going with this. At double the odds, Willis to the Panthers is a more sensible bet based on the wisdom of the crowds here. The +400 odds suggest a 20.0% chance for Willis to be drafted by the Panthers. Plus, there are rumors that the Steelers are really only sold on Pickett in the quarterback market anyway.
However, we actually see a lot more value on the Atlanta Falcons (+600) and a slight edge for the Detroit Lions (+900), too. Willis-to-Atlanta is mocked in 19.0% of the past 100 mocks, besting the implied odds of 14.3% in the market.
The 12.0% odds for Willis to go to Detroit still outperforms the +900 odds (10.0%), as well.
Though the safest play is to go with the Panthers at +400, the best value is Malik Willis to become an Atlanta Falcon at +600 in hopes that Pickett is Carolina's man with the sixth overall pick.