4 NFL Player Props for Divisional Round Saturday
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NFL odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change after this article is published.
Joe Mixon Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
numberFire's model anticipates Mixon to accrue 95.3 scrimmage yards this weekend against the Titans. At that number, my simulation model has Mixon's over odds at around 80% likely to occur.
Yes, the Titans are a good run defense (they're 13th in rushing success rate allowed to opposing backs), but Mixon's workload has been great. In games when he has played at least half of the Bengals' snaps, he has averaged 97.5 scrimmage yards per game.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-195)
Yes, I know the juice is heavy on Derrick Henry to score, but if you pair it in a Same Game Parlay with the Titans to win (-190), the odds are +120 that Tennesee wins and Henry scores.
It's hard to envision a scenario where the Titans are victorious and Henry doesn't walk in a goal-line touchdown.
And for as much concern as we may have about Henry's full workload as he returns from injury, he should be a factor in the red zone and on the goal line. During his games with at least half of the snaps, Henry has an 87.3% red zone rushing share (for 4.3 red zone carries per game). That also works out to 46.8% of the Titans' overall red zone looks if you include all passing plays.
If the Titans score, Henry has great odds to be the one to hit paydirt, and you can pare down the odds with the parlay option.
Deebo Samuel Over 93.5 Total Yards (-114)
It’s very difficult to configure the best sample size to use for the San Francisco 49ers’ skill players because there have been a lot of injuries and role changes, but if we look at Week 15 on when Deebo Samuel saw his target shares increase again after playing a little more exclusively as a running back with his opportunities, we still have five games to work with.
In those five games, Samuel has averaged 7.2 carries and 6.2 targets for 122.4 total yards.
That’s on a rushing yards over expected rate (via NextGenStats) of just 3.0 yards per game, so he’s not drastically overperforming there as a runner, and his catch rate over expectation is actually -3.8%.
So, there’s a lot of room to struggle while still being able to top 93.5 yards for Samuel against the Green Bay Packers.
George Kittle Under 4.5 Receptions (-108)
I love George Kittle as much as the next guy, but his role has been pretty worrisome of late.
Kittle, since Samuel's role increase and in games without Trey Lance starting, has a lowly (for him) 16.4% target share that's leading to 4.8 targets per game and 3.5 catches per game on a catch rate over expectation of 0.7%.
Their path to an upset is likely on the ground, per usual, especially against a weak Packers' run defense. That should leave Kittle's role a little too small to get to five-plus catches.