Daily Fantasy Football Floor and Ceiling Projections: Week 18
Fantasy football is a volatile game.
Sometimes, a shoelace tackle is the difference between a 10-yard catch and a 70-yard touchdown, and sometimes goal-line carries go to backup players.
It happens. A lot.
And, don't get me wrong -- median projections are quite valuable and capture the most likely scenario. Setting your lineups based on 90th-percentile projections isn't the right way to handle things for a head-to-head lineup, but if you want to figure out which players can bust a slate open, then you'll have to embrace some risk.
That's why I've started simulating NFL weeks and seeing what happens when the slate is played out 1,000 times. Here are some things that popped at each position this week, based on my simulations, which factor in numberFire's projections and my own tweaks, including dynamic variance based on underlying passing, rushing, and receiving data.
Table Terms
FanDuel Salary (Sal): A player's main slate salary on FanDuel.
Median FDP (FDP): A player's median FanDuel projection across the 1,000 slate simulations.
Value (Val): Projected median FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. All quarterbacks generally have a 2.00 FanDuel-point-per-$1,000 rate at the low end, which implies a 2-times value, or 2x value. On a full slate of 13 games, roughly 13 running backs tend to have a 2x value projection. On a full slate of 13 games, a small handful of receivers may get to a 2x median projection, and just more than 30 will be at 1.5x. On a full slate of 13 games, few tight ends will get to a 2x median value, and anything above 1.5x is generally a top-six projection. It's important to understand the different value expectations across positions.
25th Pct (25 Pct): The player's 25th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a low-end (or floor) outcome. Every player's true floor is zero.
75th Pct (75 Pct): The player's 75th-percentile FanDuel point projection, meant to show a somewhat attainable/projectable high-end (or ceiling) outcome without simply looking at true outlier performances.
FDP% (x+ %): The frequency with which a player surpassed a certain raw projection threshold, meant to show a raw ceiling outcome. This doesn't adjust for salary and is a different value for each position.
Boom/Bust Ratio (Boom/Bust): The frequency with which a player had a "boom" game compared to a "bust" game based on historical, position-based value outcomes. For quarterbacks, this measures games with 2.75x value versus games with worse than 2x value. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, it's 2x versus less than 1.5x. Think of it as a simple floor-versus-ceiling rating. Higher is better, and they should be compared only within the same position.
Quarterback
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
25+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $8,800 | 23.7 | 2.69 | 18.0 | 30.1 | 45.1% | 1.99 |
| Kyler Murray | $8,400 | 22.2 | 2.65 | 16.3 | 27.7 | 37.6% | 1.70 |
| Taysom Hill | $7,700 | 19.7 | 2.55 | 13.2 | 24.9 | 24.6% | 1.31 |
| Tyler Huntley | $7,000 | 18.9 | 2.70 | 12.8 | 24.6 | 23.1% | 1.65 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,300 | 18.6 | 2.55 | 13.1 | 23.5 | 18.8% | 1.37 |
| Matthew Stafford | $7,400 | 18.5 | 2.49 | 13.5 | 23.7 | 18.9% | 1.31 |
| Tom Brady | $8,100 | 18.0 | 2.22 | 13.5 | 23.5 | 19.9% | 0.76 |
| Carson Wentz | $7,200 | 17.4 | 2.42 | 12.5 | 22.7 | 14.7% | 1.15 |
| Kirk Cousins | $7,200 | 16.9 | 2.35 | 12.4 | 21.7 | 13.4% | 0.98 |
| Russell Wilson | $7,500 | 16.6 | 2.22 | 11.4 | 21.4 | 12.7% | 0.71 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $6,900 | 15.4 | 2.24 | 10.9 | 20.6 | 11.1% | 0.80 |
| Mac Jones | $7,000 | 15.2 | 2.18 | 10.0 | 20.3 | 8.8% | 0.66 |
| Andy Dalton | $6,300 | 14.3 | 2.27 | 9.2 | 19.6 | 8.1% | 0.86 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $7,000 | 14.0 | 2.01 | 9.4 | 18.5 | 5.9% | 0.45 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $6,700 | 13.8 | 2.06 | 9.2 | 18.3 | 4.4% | 0.51 |
| Jared Goff | $6,800 | 13.8 | 2.02 | 8.8 | 18.4 | 4.1% | 0.49 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,500 | 13.4 | 2.06 | 8.2 | 18.3 | 6.1% | 0.56 |
| Case Keenum | $6,300 | 13.2 | 2.09 | 8.7 | 17.8 | 5.1% | 0.58 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,400 | 12.9 | 2.02 | 8.7 | 17.8 | 4.2% | 0.53 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $6,500 | 12.7 | 1.95 | 8.0 | 18.1 | 5.1% | 0.52 |
| Davis Mills | $6,400 | 12.6 | 1.97 | 8.1 | 17.1 | 4.2% | 0.44 |
| Jordan Love | $6,700 | 12.4 | 1.85 | 7.9 | 17.0 | 3.2% | 0.35 |
| Brandon Allen | $6,400 | 12.4 | 1.93 | 7.1 | 16.7 | 3.8% | 0.38 |
| Sam Darnold | $6,600 | 12.2 | 1.84 | 7.4 | 17.2 | 4.4% | 0.38 |
| Zach Wilson | $6,500 | 11.2 | 1.72 | 6.6 | 15.7 | 2.0% | 0.27 |
| Jake Fromm | $6,200 | 9.6 | 1.55 | 5.0 | 14.2 | 0.6% | 0.20 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $8,200 | 6.4 | 0.77 | 2.4 | 10.4 | 0.4% | 0.01 |
Running Back
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | $10,200 | 21.8 | 2.14 | 15.5 | 28.0 | 57.1% | 2.32 |
| Dalvin Cook | $8,700 | 17.9 | 2.05 | 11.8 | 23.1 | 39.0% | 1.72 |
| James Conner | $7,000 | 16.8 | 2.40 | 11.3 | 22.6 | 35.1% | 2.75 |
| David Montgomery | $7,600 | 16.4 | 2.16 | 11.0 | 22.1 | 32.9% | 2.11 |
| Alvin Kamara | $9,000 | 15.8 | 1.76 | 10.4 | 21.6 | 32.4% | 1.09 |
| Najee Harris | $8,500 | 15.7 | 1.85 | 10.2 | 21.6 | 31.5% | 1.20 |
| Sony Michel | $7,700 | 14.5 | 1.88 | 9.5 | 19.4 | 22.0% | 1.36 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $8,000 | 13.8 | 1.73 | 8.6 | 18.9 | 20.0% | 0.93 |
| Devin Singletary | $6,700 | 13.4 | 2.00 | 8.4 | 18.1 | 17.6% | 1.56 |
| D'Onta Foreman | $6,900 | 13.2 | 1.91 | 8.0 | 18.2 | 17.7% | 1.30 |
| Antonio Gibson | $6,800 | 13.1 | 1.93 | 7.9 | 18.2 | 17.6% | 1.34 |
| Rashaad Penny | $7,800 | 12.7 | 1.63 | 7.9 | 17.7 | 16.5% | 0.77 |
| Saquon Barkley | $6,400 | 12.6 | 1.97 | 7.5 | 17.8 | 16.2% | 1.42 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,200 | 12.5 | 1.52 | 7.7 | 17.0 | 13.4% | 0.57 |
| Samaje Perine | $6,500 | 11.5 | 1.78 | 6.9 | 16.1 | 11.0% | 1.05 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | $6,200 | 11.1 | 1.79 | 6.2 | 15.7 | 11.5% | 1.01 |
| D'Andre Swift | $7,000 | 10.9 | 1.55 | 5.5 | 15.8 | 10.4% | 0.68 |
| Michael Carter | $5,800 | 10.8 | 1.87 | 6.0 | 15.8 | 10.3% | 1.19 |
| Rex Burkhead | $5,600 | 10.0 | 1.79 | 5.5 | 14.6 | 7.0% | 1.10 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | $5,900 | 10.0 | 1.70 | 6.1 | 14.3 | 5.8% | 0.94 |
| Devonta Freeman | $5,600 | 9.9 | 1.77 | 5.6 | 14.4 | 6.0% | 1.08 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,800 | 9.7 | 1.43 | 4.7 | 14.3 | 7.1% | 0.52 |
| Damien Harris | $7,400 | 9.7 | 1.31 | 5.5 | 14.0 | 4.7% | 0.34 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | $5,600 | 9.2 | 1.64 | 5.1 | 13.8 | 5.1% | 0.86 |
| Chuba Hubbard | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.57 | 4.8 | 13.5 | 5.7% | 0.75 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $6,500 | 8.9 | 1.36 | 4.6 | 13.0 | 3.5% | 0.45 |
| A.J. Dillon | $7,300 | 8.6 | 1.18 | 4.0 | 13.3 | 5.0% | 0.30 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $5,600 | 8.6 | 1.54 | 3.8 | 13.4 | 6.3% | 0.73 |
| Le'Veon Bell | $5,200 | 7.6 | 1.47 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 3.0% | 0.64 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,600 | 7.6 | 1.36 | 3.5 | 11.9 | 2.6% | 0.53 |
| Mike Davis | $5,600 | 7.5 | 1.34 | 3.1 | 11.9 | 2.2% | 0.49 |
| Jamaal Williams | $6,000 | 7.3 | 1.22 | 3.0 | 11.2 | 1.3% | 0.34 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,300 | 6.8 | 0.93 | 2.8 | 10.7 | 1.3% | 0.11 |
| Patrick Taylor | $5,600 | 6.6 | 1.18 | 2.4 | 11.3 | 1.7% | 0.43 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $5,100 | 6.4 | 1.26 | 2.2 | 10.8 | 0.8% | 0.49 |
| Devontae Booker | $5,400 | 6.3 | 1.16 | 2.7 | 10.6 | 1.4% | 0.39 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,100 | 6.1 | 1.20 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 1.0% | 0.39 |
| David Johnson | $5,100 | 5.7 | 1.12 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 1.2% | 0.41 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,100 | 5.6 | 1.10 | 1.5 | 9.7 | 0.9% | 0.35 |
| Alexander Mattison | $7,500 | 5.4 | 0.72 | 1.3 | 8.9 | 0.5% | 0.05 |
| Chris Evans | $4,900 | 5.2 | 1.06 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 0.2% | 0.30 |
| Brandon Bolden | $4,900 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 0.1% | 0.29 |
| Craig Reynolds | $5,000 | 4.8 | 0.97 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 0.3% | 0.30 |
| Myles Gaskin | $5,400 | 4.8 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 0.2% | 0.19 |
| Cam Akers | $5,500 | 4.5 | 0.82 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 0.5% | 0.19 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,500 | 4.3 | 0.79 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 1.0% | 0.17 |
| Ryquell Armstead | $4,700 | 4.3 | 0.91 | 0.6 | 8.1 | 0.1% | 0.25 |
| Jaret Patterson | $6,600 | 4.2 | 0.64 | 1.0 | 8.1 | 0.2% | 0.06 |
| Zack Moss | $5,300 | 4.2 | 0.79 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 0.2% | 0.15 |
Wide Receiver
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
20+ % |
Boom /Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $10,000 | 19.4 | 1.94 | 15.2 | 23.8 | 45.9% | 1.91 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,500 | 17.6 | 2.07 | 11.9 | 23.5 | 38.7% | 1.83 |
| Stefon Diggs | $7,700 | 14.6 | 1.90 | 10.1 | 19.3 | 22.0% | 1.45 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,400 | 14.0 | 1.89 | 9.3 | 18.2 | 17.7% | 1.37 |
| Deebo Samuel | $8,800 | 13.9 | 1.58 | 10.3 | 17.8 | 17.1% | 1.38 |
| Christian Kirk | $6,200 | 13.0 | 2.10 | 8.6 | 17.2 | 14.4% | 1.83 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | $6,600 | 12.8 | 1.93 | 8.6 | 17.1 | 14.5% | 1.44 |
| Brandin Cooks | $7,100 | 12.2 | 1.72 | 6.7 | 17.1 | 14.8% | 0.93 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,500 | 12.2 | 1.63 | 9.0 | 16.4 | 8.6% | 0.77 |
| Diontae Johnson | $7,600 | 12.0 | 1.58 | 8.1 | 16.5 | 10.4% | 0.70 |
| Mike Evans | $7,800 | 11.9 | 1.53 | 6.9 | 17.0 | 13.1% | 0.63 |
| D.K. Metcalf | $7,200 | 11.8 | 1.64 | 6.2 | 16.8 | 12.1% | 0.79 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,900 | 11.6 | 1.68 | 6.9 | 16.3 | 12.6% | 0.86 |
| D.J. Moore | $6,100 | 11.4 | 1.86 | 6.2 | 16.8 | 12.0% | 1.14 |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,800 | 11.2 | 1.65 | 7.3 | 15.3 | 6.7% | 0.77 |
| Marquise Brown | $6,200 | 10.6 | 1.71 | 5.9 | 15.4 | 8.9% | 0.89 |
| Darnell Mooney | $6,300 | 10.4 | 1.66 | 6.4 | 14.9 | 8.7% | 0.80 |
| Odell Beckham | $6,500 | 9.8 | 1.51 | 5.2 | 14.6 | 7.6% | 0.66 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,700 | 9.8 | 1.46 | 5.5 | 13.9 | 4.6% | 0.55 |
| Gabriel Davis | $5,200 | 9.3 | 1.79 | 5.2 | 13.5 | 4.7% | 1.08 |
| Cole Beasley | $5,500 | 9.2 | 1.67 | 5.7 | 12.2 | 1.6% | 0.82 |
| K.J. Osborn | $6,400 | 9.1 | 1.43 | 5.6 | 12.7 | 1.6% | 0.47 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,600 | 8.9 | 1.59 | 4.5 | 12.8 | 4.5% | 0.75 |
| Chase Claypool | $5,800 | 8.9 | 1.54 | 4.7 | 13.4 | 3.6% | 0.70 |
| Russell Gage | $5,700 | 8.9 | 1.56 | 5.5 | 12.6 | 1.8% | 0.68 |
| A.J. Green | $5,700 | 8.7 | 1.52 | 4.3 | 13.0 | 3.3% | 0.69 |
| Jarvis Landry | $6,000 | 8.6 | 1.43 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 1.7% | 0.52 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $6,000 | 8.5 | 1.42 | 4.5 | 12.5 | 3.1% | 0.54 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,300 | 8.2 | 1.55 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 3.1% | 0.76 |
| Marquez Callaway | $5,900 | 8.1 | 1.38 | 4.0 | 12.1 | 2.4% | 0.48 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $6,000 | 7.8 | 1.31 | 4.5 | 11.4 | 0.9% | 0.36 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | $8,000 | 7.8 | 0.97 | 3.7 | 11.9 | 1.9% | 0.11 |
| Robby Anderson | $5,500 | 7.5 | 1.37 | 3.4 | 11.5 | 1.4% | 0.53 |
| Jamison Crowder | $5,500 | 7.5 | 1.37 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 0.8% | 0.44 |
| Allen Robinson | $5,500 | 7.5 | 1.37 | 3.9 | 11.1 | 1.6% | 0.46 |
| Van Jefferson | $5,800 | 7.5 | 1.29 | 3.5 | 11.3 | 0.7% | 0.40 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,400 | 7.4 | 1.37 | 3.5 | 11.9 | 2.8% | 0.55 |
| Antoine Wesley | $5,400 | 7.2 | 1.34 | 3.6 | 11.0 | 0.8% | 0.46 |
| Josh Reynolds | $5,100 | 6.9 | 1.34 | 3.3 | 10.4 | 0.7% | 0.45 |
| Laquon Treadwell | $5,300 | 6.9 | 1.29 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 0.0% | 0.29 |
| Julio Jones | $5,700 | 6.7 | 1.18 | 3.2 | 10.0 | 0.3% | 0.28 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | $5,500 | 6.6 | 1.20 | 2.5 | 10.4 | 1.1% | 0.36 |
| Rashod Bateman | $5,700 | 6.6 | 1.15 | 3.1 | 9.7 | 0.2% | 0.25 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $5,400 | 6.5 | 1.20 | 2.9 | 9.8 | 0.3% | 0.30 |
| Laviska Shenault | $5,200 | 6.2 | 1.20 | 3.0 | 9.2 | 0.1% | 0.26 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,800 | 6.1 | 0.89 | 2.4 | 10.0 | 0.9% | 0.12 |
| Davante Adams | $8,800 | 6.1 | 0.69 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 0.2% | 0.01 |
| Cyril Grayson Jr. | $5,600 | 6.0 | 1.07 | 2.9 | 9.7 | 0.5% | 0.25 |
| Keelan Cole | $5,100 | 5.9 | 1.15 | 2.2 | 9.6 | 1.3% | 0.33 |
| Breshad Perriman | $4,900 | 5.7 | 1.16 | 1.9 | 9.2 | 0.3% | 0.34 |
| Kendrick Bourne | $5,600 | 5.5 | 0.99 | 2.7 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | $5,000 | 5.5 | 1.11 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 0.2% | 0.25 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $5,700 | 5.5 | 0.97 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 1.4% | 0.30 |
| Nelson Agholor | $4,800 | 5.5 | 1.15 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 0.0% | 0.38 |
| Darius Slayton | $5,000 | 5.3 | 1.07 | 1.6 | 9.6 | 0.5% | 0.35 |
| Nico Collins | $5,100 | 5.3 | 1.04 | 2.1 | 8.8 | 0.0% | 0.23 |
| Kalif Raymond | $5,000 | 4.9 | 0.99 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 0.0% | 0.22 |
| Tyler Boyd | $6,100 | 4.9 | 0.80 | 1.9 | 7.9 | 0.1% | 0.06 |
| Deonte Harris | $5,200 | 4.8 | 0.91 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Adam Humphries | $5,000 | 4.7 | 0.95 | 1.9 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.17 |
| Zach Pascal | $5,200 | 4.6 | 0.88 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.16 |
Tight End
| Player | Sal | FDP | Val | 25 Pct |
75 Pct |
15+ % |
Boom/ Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | $8,500 | 11.5 | 1.36 | 6.8 | 16.5 | 31.2% | 0.40 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,600 | 10.7 | 1.91 | 6.7 | 14.9 | 24.7% | 1.34 |
| George Kittle | $6,900 | 10.7 | 1.54 | 6.6 | 14.8 | 23.5% | 0.64 |
| Rob Gronkowski | $7,400 | 10.2 | 1.38 | 5.4 | 14.5 | 23.3% | 0.43 |
| Dawson Knox | $6,000 | 8.2 | 1.37 | 4.8 | 11.5 | 9.5% | 0.40 |
| Kyle Pitts | $5,800 | 8.2 | 1.42 | 3.8 | 13.4 | 17.3% | 0.63 |
| Tyler Higbee | $5,500 | 7.7 | 1.40 | 4.2 | 11.3 | 8.9% | 0.48 |
| Cole Kmet | $4,900 | 7.3 | 1.49 | 3.3 | 11.2 | 7.8% | 0.65 |
| Tyler Conklin | $5,300 | 7.0 | 1.32 | 3.9 | 10.5 | 6.3% | 0.43 |
| Mike Gesicki | $5,700 | 7.0 | 1.22 | 3.0 | 11.1 | 10.2% | 0.39 |
| Hunter Henry | $5,600 | 6.6 | 1.17 | 3.1 | 10.2 | 5.1% | 0.27 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $5,200 | 6.3 | 1.21 | 3.0 | 9.8 | 3.5% | 0.33 |
| Gerald Everett | $4,900 | 6.1 | 1.25 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 2.5% | 0.33 |
| Austin Hooper | $5,100 | 4.9 | 0.96 | 1.7 | 8.5 | 2.0% | 0.21 |
| Evan Engram | $4,900 | 4.9 | 0.99 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 3.0% | 0.25 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $5,100 | 4.0 | 0.79 | 0.7 | 7.1 | 0.6% | 0.11 |
| Anthony Firkser | $4,800 | 3.8 | 0.80 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 0.9% | 0.13 |
| Geoff Swaim | $4,700 | 3.6 | 0.77 | 1.1 | 6.6 | 0.4% | 0.12 |
| Cameron Brate | $4,900 | 3.3 | 0.68 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 0.6% | 0.10 |
| David Njoku | $4,900 | 3.3 | 0.68 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 0.4% | 0.10 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,800 | 2.8 | 0.58 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.4% | 0.06 |
