Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned in the 2021 Season

Perhaps more than anything, fantasy football is a game of adjustments. Season-long fantasy doesn't end at the draft, and smart managers learn to take the trends and data that each week of games offers and apply it to their roster decisions moving forward.

This week's piece will look a little different in that it takes a look back at the whole season, not just the previous week. We will consider trends from the season and determine which patterns in snaps, usage, and matchups are actionable moving forward. Let's dive in and look at some interesting pieces of information from 2021.

Running Backs Weren't as Volatile as We Predicted

Typically, we think of running backs as the most volatile position to draft -- and most of the time you would be right.

Whether through injury, emerging talent on the roster, or game script, identifying and securing the best running back talent can often be a fool's errand. Take the emergence of the ZeroRB strategy in recent years. It bases its premise on the fact that backup running backs are "anti-fragile" and become stronger assets as the season moves along.

What about 2021? How did the top 20 drafted running backs perform compared to their average draft position (ADP)? Here are the top-20 running backs by fantasy points in half-PPR formats this season, compared to their consensus ADP from FantasyPros before the season began.

If you focus on the top 12 at the position, there were certainly some outliers.

James Conner became Jerome Bettis 2.0, Cordarrelle Patterson became Ladainian Tomlinson lite, and Leonard Fournette became Tom Brady's new best friend. Each of them shot up the leaderboards.

But beyond those, there was some surprising stability. Of the top 12 in half-PPR fantasy points, eight of them were drafted as top-12 running backs, and Joe Mixon just missed as RB13. If heartbreakers like Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry had not gotten hurt, they likely would have ended up on this list, as well.

Numbers 13-20 are more volatile, as we might expect. Two of them were top-five picks, three were drafted in the 13-20 range, and three more were outside the top 20 -- including Darrel Williams, who was drafted 60th overall but was dominant when filling in for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

The lesson? The top running backs are drafted that way for a reason. You can never predict injury, of course, but the production you are guaranteed when they are healthy make them worth a top-15 pick. At least in 2021.

Step Aside 2020: 2021 Was Also the Year of the Rookie Wide Receiver

Just when we thought we had seen the paragon of elite rookie wide receiver years in 2020, 2021 came along and essentially gave us a carbon copy.

In 2020, four rookie wide receivers (Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, and Chase Claypool) amassed at least 60 receptions and 800 yards for the season. That was the first time since 2014 (wherefore art thou, Kelvin Benjamin?) and only the second time in history that many wide receivers reached those marks in the NFL.

In 2021, with still one week to go, we once again have four receivers who have reached those milestones of 60 catches and 800 yards: Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DeVonta Smith.

Similar to 2020, we have one true alpha (Jefferson had 1,400 yards; Chase is at 1,1429) and a couple of others who are knocking on the door of 80 catches and 1,000 yards. Assuming Waddle gets 12 yards in Week 18, 2021 and 2014 will be the only years the NFL has ever seen two rookies gain 1,000 receiving yards in the same year.

The jury is still out on other wide receivers who didn't perform up to expectations for one reason or another. In years to come, Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, and Elijah Moore could all transform into top-24 wide receiver fantasy picks. But for now, we can just enjoy that we are in the golden age of young receiving talent.

Can next year's wide receiver class do the same? There were six wide receivers taken in the first 34 picks in the 2021 draft, an unusually high number. Early mocks I have seen have anywhere from five to seven wideouts in that range this year, so there is a chance another great class is about to emerge.

Quarterback Scoring Returned to Normalcy

In 2021, Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game with 24.61. All of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts have had their spike games, but all check in under 23 fantasy points per game heading into the final week of the regular season.

Why that's important is that it makes the 2020 season look that much more like an outlier for quarterback scoring. Here are the number of quarterbacks with at least five games played who score a minimum of 23.5 fantasy points per game since 2012:

The 2020 season sticks out like a sore thumb with six quarterbacks hitting that milestone.

It makes sense when you look at the aggregate numbers from that season, as well. If you compare all professional football seasons dating back to 1932, 2020 was first in passing first downs, passing completions, and passing touchdowns per game. It was also top five in passing attempts, passing yards, and yard per attempt.

Many saw that movement last year and assumed the passing game would be pushed even more into the mainstream and become a larger part of offensive game plans. In a way, the trend did continue. 2021 has the fourth-most passing completions per game all-time, as well as the ninth-most pass attempts and ninth-highest yards per attempt per pass. But 2021 also saw the explosion of the "Cover Two" or "Two High Safeties" defense that has taken away many of the explosive plays we saw in 2020.

NFL defensive coaches are not just going to sit back and let opponents pass at will against them, so they will continue developing new and innovative ways to contain the passing games they are facing. That chess match will continue ad nauseam and is a part of what makes fantasy football such an interesting challenge and a new puzzle we have to solve every year.