FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Sunday Night (Washington at Dallas)
On NFL odds, the Cowboys are 10.0-point home favorites over WFT in a game with a 47.0-point total. That makes the implied score 28.50-18.50 in favor of Dallas.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
The model pegs Dak as the clear-cut top MVP play, projecting him for 20.4 FanDuel points, 4.4 more than anyone else. He's facing a WFT defense that has surrendered the most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (22.6), and Dallas' 28.50-point implied total is a juicy number.
On the flip side, there are reasons to fade Dak at MVP. For one, he'll likely be the slate's chalk multiplier. Two, he hasn't been very good lately in fantasy, notching outputs of 10.58, 11.94 and 12.22 FanDuel points across his last three. His rushing prowess has disappeared as he's averaging only 8.1 rushing yards per game for the season. And lastly, Washington's defense hasn't been that bad over the second half of the year, allowing more than 250 passing yards only once in their last seven games (last week to Jalen Hurts).
Heinicke isn't in good form, either, but with the masses likely to turn to a Dallas player at MVP, he and Terry McLaurin ($13,000) are fun MVP options. Heinicke is running for an average of 22.1 yards per game and is projected for 16.0 FanDuel points, per our algorithm.
As for McLaurin, the matchup isn't as bad as you might think it is. Dallas is permitting the 12th-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts (29.6), and he's got a 23% target share for the year with a 42% air yards share -- team-best numbers by a mile. He put up a goose egg in an injury-shortened game in the first meeting with the Cowboys, but he's a contrarian MVP pick who could hit. We project him for 10.9 FanDuel points.
Dallas' big three weapons -- Ezekiel Elliott ($13,000), CeeDee Lamb ($13,500) and Amari Cooper ($12,000) -- need to be on the MVP radar, too. Our model prefers Zeke and Lamb to Cooper, projecting the three for 13.2, 12.8 and 10.0 FanDuel points, respectively. Zeke got 16 carries and four targets last week with Tony Pollard ($11,000) back. Lamb has logged 13, 10 and nine looks over the last three games.
A thing to watch for on this slate is the status of Antonio Gibson ($14,000). Gibson didn't practice at all during the short week after last Tuesday's game. If Gibson plays and is expected to be full-go, he's a viable MVP option with J.D. McKissic still sidelined.
If Gibson sits, Jaret Patterson ($7,500) becomes a smashing value pick who would likely see a lot of volume and snaps (and a big draft percentage). Patterson has more than five touches in a game just once this season, so he'd be a bit of a leap of faith, but lead-back volume for $7,500 is hard to turn down.
On the Cowboys' side, Michael Gallup ($9,500) has a lot of appeal at his salary and could slip through the cracks a bit. With Lamb and Cooper back and in their full roles the last two weeks, Gallup has garnered snap shares of 82% and 92% while seeing a team-leading 35% air yards share and a 19% target share that ranks second on the squad. I prefer him over Cooper straight up before factoring in salaries.
According to our numbers, Greg Zuerlein ($9,500) is the top point-per-dollar play among those with a five-digit salary -- although that honor will likely fall to Patterson if Gibson is ruled out. Young GZ has scored 10.0, 13.0 and 11.0 FanDuel points across his past three games and is projected for 9.3 FanDuel points for this one.