FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 15 Tuesday Night
Normally, we're turning the page to the next slate by Tuesday, but instead, Week 15 soldiers on like it's 2020 all over again.
The home teams are heavy favorites tonight, per NFL odds. Philadelphia is favored by 8.5 points over Washington, and the game carries a modest 41.0-point over/under. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7.0-point favorites over the visiting Seahawks, though that game is getting a more fantasy-friendly 46.5-point total.
Both games kick off at 7:00 pm ET. Let's check out the best plays on all four teams.
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
Against an undermanned Washington squad, Philadelphia ought to be in the driver's seat for this one. On paper, that means their preferred rush-heavy attack.
Unfortunately, knowing where those rushing yards will come from will be difficult. Jalen Hurts ($8,200) will make his return and was taken off the injury list completely, but considering he's coming off an ankle issue, it's possible he doesn't run as much -- particularly if this game doesn't stay competitive.
But if Hurts is unleashed in full, he brings that immense dual-threat upside, averaging 10.2 carries and 57.9 rushing yards per game. He leads all quarterbacks with eight rushing scores, too. Despite some uncertainty, he's a top play at the position pretty much by default.
And then there's the glut of running backs between Miles Sanders ($6,700), Jordan Howard ($5,600), Boston Scott ($5,300), and Kenneth Gainwell ($5,100). Sanders remains the lead back, but it's unclear how much he'll share the load with this entire backfield now healthy. In Week 13, Sanders was given 30 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), but that was with Howard out and Scott barely playing due to an illness.
Given what should be a positive game script, Sanders remains a strong play, albeit one with a wide range of outcomes. It's even trickier to figure out how the rest will be utilized, but based on past usage, Gainwell could be the odd man out. If you're making multiple lineups, you could take a chance on Howard or Scott as touchdown-or-bust options.
If we're assuming there will be a whole lot of running, that naturally doesn't leave as much volume in the passing game for Dallas Goedert ($6,400) and DeVonta Smith ($6,000). Since the Zach Ertz trade, Hurts has hit 30-plus pass attempts twice in six starts, and he's exceeded 200 yards passing only once.
That doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for Goedert and Smith, but in their five healthy games together over that span, they've earned target shares of 25.2% and 24.3%, respectively. No one else on the team exceeds 13.0%.
That's enough to keep them in play on the short slate if you think Washington doesn't completely roll over. That's especially the case for Goedert on a pretty sparse slate for tight ends.
Finally, the Philadelphia D/ST ($4,800) has a premium salary, but their appeal is obvious against a team that's missing its top two quarterbacks.
The Football Team may have gotten a few extra days to get healthy, but they've received little in the way of good news, even missing seven coaching assistants
Similar to yesterday's dire situation for the Browns, that leaves little optimism for this offense outside of Washington's top running back.
Over the past three games, Antonio Gibson ($7,400) has tallied 43, 35, and 14 adjusted opportunities, and J.D. McKissic has been ruled out again, increasing Gibson's outlook as a pass-catcher. The game script will likely work against him, but the volume should be there out of sheer necessity.
Beyond Gibson, Terry McLaurin ($7,300) is probably the only guy we can have any semblance of confidence in. In his 12 full games, he's recorded a team-high 26.5% target share with no one else coming anywhere close. Whether Washington's quarterback will be able to get the ball to him against Darius Slay and this secondary remains to be seen, but he should be the top receiving option as usual.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,000) is questionable with a non-COVID illness, and he's a fringe option if he plays. While he was an every-down player earlier this year, he only played 45.2% of the snaps in his return last week. In an already tough situation, he might not be worth the risk despite the low salary.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Offense
Unlike the Football Team, the Rams' offense has actually benefited from the delay, as they should have most of their key pieces back.
That puts Matthew Stafford ($8,500) in a great spot, and he's neck and neck with Jalen Hurts as the top quarterback play on the slate. According to Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, no one has been more efficient than Stafford, who leads the league in the metric (minimum 100 drop backs).
Seattle is a middle-of-the-road pass defense, too, sitting 22nd in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings.
Cooper Kupp ($9,500) is Stafford's top pass-catcher as always, and with Odell Beckham ($6,500) coming off the COVID-19 list, we also have both Beckham and Van Jefferson ($6,400) as options. Tyler Higbee didn't test off of the COVID-19 list, which frees up a handful of extra targets, too.
Over the last three games, Kupp leads the group with a 33.0% target share, followed by 20.8% for Beckham and 18.9% for Jefferson.
Darrell Henderson ($7,000) is also back, but that's actually more of a negative because it's unclear how touches will now be divvied up with Sony Michel ($7,000). In their last game together in Week 12, Henderson played 80.3% of the snaps and logged 24 adjusted opportunities, while Michel notched marks of 19.7% and 5.
But Michel got the job done as a workhorse back the last two games, which could alter how the Rams deploy their backs moving forward. Head coach Sean McVay made comments that also suggest this could be up in the air. Henderson is probably the preferred play, but taking a chance on Michel at a lower roster percentage should be on the table, too.
Filling in for Higbee last week, tight end Kendall Blanton ($4,000) played 92.6% of the snaps and also recorded a 72.7% route rate. While he only saw three targets, that usage is pretty much a one-for-one replacement for Higbee. It isn't outlandish to foresee no tight end posting a dominant score, so it isn't crazy to punt the position with Blanton.
As the other big favorite, the Los Angeles Rams D/ST ($4,500) make sense as an option. Although Russell Wilson has only thrown four interceptions in 10 starts, he does own the sixth-highest sack rate this season (8.3%).
The Seahawks may be the underdog, but at least we have a pretty good idea of where the ball will be going.
Rashaad Penny ($6,400) was the big story last week. He turned 18.0 adjusted opportunities into 26.3 FanDuel points. Alex Collins remains on the COVID-19 list, which should only further increase Penny's role.
However, Penny only saw one target last week, and the game script may not go in his favor as a road 'dog. Additionally, the Rams rank seventh in schedule-adjusted rush defense. Penny's still one of the top running back plays, but keep in mind that there are paths to failure.
Russell Wilson ($7,500) comes in at a discount to Stafford and Hurts, but his upside tends to be limited in this low-volume offense. He's also running at the lowest clip of his career. Wilson's posted 17-plus points in each of the last three games, though, so you could roster him if you think both games end up being low-scoring duds.
Tyler Lockett is still on the COVID-19 list, so perhaps the stage is set for DK Metcalf ($7,500) to finally have a big game. It might surprise you that Lockett and Metcalf have actually seen roughly the same number of targets since Wilson's return, earning them both target shares above 22%. Metcalf has seen exactly eight targets in four of those five games.
Lockett's absence also boosts Gerald Everett ($5,100), who's looking like the best non-Goedert tight end. Everett's third on the team with an 18.4% target share across the past five games.
Wideout Freddie Swain ($4,700) could also see a few more looks. He's played the most wide receiver snaps behind Lockett and Metcalf.
The matchup obviously isn't great for the Seattle D/ST ($3,300), but they have the lowest salary on the board and should face more pass attempts than Washington's unit. That at least gives the chance for turnovers and sacks if Stafford has a rare off day.