4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 15
Stacks fuel upside in FanDuel contests. To that point, colleague Brandon Gdula took a deep dive into hit rates and correlation for stacks. It's worth a read.
Every week, I'll lay out my four favorite stacks in this space. Here are the stacks I'm honing in on this week.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray ($8,800), Christian Kirk ($6,000), and A.J. Green ($5,700)
The Arizona Cardinals are an obviously elite stacking option. They have the highest implied total on FanDuel's main slate (30.00) by two points. Plus, they have a narrow target tree and distribution of playing time with DeAndre Hopkins out of the picture.
This stack starts at the top with Murray, the superstar dual-threat quarterback. According to Stat Head, among quarterbacks with at least six starts this year, Murray is seventh in rushing yards per game (26.7) and tied for third in rushing touchdowns (five). He is also thriving through the air. Per Pro Football Reference, Murray is seventh in passing yards per game (278.2), sixth in touchdown pass percentage (5.9 percent), and fifth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.46, ANY/A).
The matchup is dreamy for Murray. According to our power rankings, the Detroit Lions are the third-worst pass defense. Couple Murray's ability to score points on the ground and through the air with a dreamy matchup, and it's easy to understand why we project him to finish as the QB2 on FanDuel's main slate.
Detroit's soft pass defense is a boon for Kirk and Green. The duo has been average or better from an efficiency perspective. According to Pro Football Focus, among 63 receivers targeted at least 50 times in 2021, Green is tied for 32nd in yards per route run (1.74, Y/RR), and Kirk is tied for 21st (1.93). Now, they should blend decent efficiency with an uptick in volume sans Nuk.
According to Pro Football Reference, Detroit allows 14.06 yards per reception. In addition, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Lions allow the third-highest explosive pass rate (11 percent this year).
Thankfully, Green and Kirk are used in a fashion to exploit Detroit's susceptibility to explosive passes with an average depth of target of 12.4 yards and 11.8 yards, respectively, per Sports Info Solutions. Thus, the Cardinals don't have to throw the ball frequently to provide value because they can hit on big plays.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers ($7,600) and Davante Adams ($8,500)
Rodgers isn't cooling down, playing through his well-covered toe injury. Instead, he's heating up. The reigning NFL MVP has passed for more than 300 yards in three straight games, sandwiching a pair of four-touchdown efforts around a three-touchdown (two passing and one rushing) game. Rodgers is dialed in, suffice to say.
The Baltimore Ravens are unlikely to slow down Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. They are the 10th-worst pass defense in our power rankings. They're coughing up explosive passes at an eye-catching rate. Baltimore allows the second-highest average explosive pass rate (11 percent). Rodgers is just the man to pick the Ravens apart , ranking second in ANY/A (7.87).
Rodgers' top stacking partner is obviously Adams. According to Sports Info Solutions, Adams is seventh in intended air yards (1,307) and second in target share (29.6 percent). Predictably, Adams has parlayed elite usage into top-shelf production. He is tied for 10th in touchdown receptions (seven) while sitting second in receptions per game (7.5) and receiving yards per game (100.3).
Even the NFL's top cornerbacks have tried unsuccessfully to contain Adams. Baltimore's corners don't fit the bill as the game's best, either. On the contrary, Pro Football Focus projects Adams as having the largest matchup advantage among receivers this week. As a result, we project Adams as the WR2 and rate him as the second-best point-per-dollar wideout on FanDuel's main slate.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon ($8,300) and Cincinnati D/ST ($3,400)
The top of the running back position is a bit lackluster on FanDuel's main slate. Still, Mixon is an intriguing option. Specifically, I think the Cincinnati Bengals should be a pick'em selection or favored against the Denver Broncos instead of a 2.5-point underdog. Thus, I expect a good game script for Mixon, which is important for the running back's fantasy outlook.
According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Bengals pass at the ninth-highest rate (59 percent, compared to the league average of 57 percent). Meanwhile, when leading by three points or more, Cincinnati runs at the 11th-highest rate (53 percent versus the league average of 50 percent). So if the Bengals lead this week, Mixon should be force-fed.
Mixon is parlaying hefty usage into stellar results, ranking first in rush attempts (245), sixth in rushing yards per game (79.7), and third in rushing touchdowns (12). Sadly, he cedes some passing work to Samaje Perine. Nonetheless, he has chipped in through the air, averaging 2.2 receptions and 15.5 receiving yards per game while snaring two touchdown receptions.
Meanwhile, the defense is my favorite on the slate -- salary considered. In fact, I'm so infatuated with Cincinnati's defense that I highlighted them as one of this week's top-five FanDuel value plays. Teddy Bridgewater is a mediocre quarterback who takes sacks and puts the ball in harm's way frequently enough for Cincinnati's defense to score points. Cincy's low salary is great for offsetting Mixon's salary, which is the second-highest among running backs on the main slate.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
Cordarrelle Patterson ($7,000) and George Kittle ($7,800)
When the field might zig, sometimes it behooves us to zag in GPPs. That's the approach I'm taking with some rosters in the wake of Atlanta Falcons' coach Arthur Smith talking about managing C-Patt's touches. Even while Atlanta has been managing Patterson's touches, the electrifying converted receiver has touch totals of 18, 16, and 18 in his last three games, producing 290 scrimmage yards, seven receptions, and three touchdowns.
Patterson has played at a high level without needing to reach the 20-touch threshold. In addition, he's a home-run threat who can erupt on the ground or through the air. Patterson has bested 50 rushing yards six times, 55 receiving yards five times, and 60 scrimmage yards 10 times. Additionally, he's scored 10 touchdowns with 3.8 receptions per game. Therefore, Patterson's ceiling is through the roof, another quality that's GPP-friendly.
My preferred game-stack run-back from Patterson is Kittle. He has been going off for the San Francisco 49ers. The stud tight end has scored six touchdowns in six games since returning in Week 9, reaching triple-digit receiving yards three times and hauling in at least four receptions five times. Kittle has been an unstoppable force in back-to-back games, totaling nine receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13 and 13 receptions for 151 yards and one touchdown in Week 14.
Kittle has been seamlessly blending mouthwatering volume with eye-popping efficiency. Kittle's 19.9 percent target share is the third-highest mark among tight ends. However, he has also been incredibly efficient, ranking 11th among qualified pass-catchers in yards per target (10.0), per Pro Football Reference. Moreover, among 51 tight ends targeted at least 20 times this year, Kittle is the runaway leader in yards per route run (2.68), a whopping 0.54 yards per route run ahead of Rob Gronkowski.
We project Kittle as the slate's TE1, and he's also the top point-per-dollar value at the position. So, yes, I expect him to be chalky. However, he should be, and using Patterson as a stacking partner should differentiate you from other lineups that are more risk-averse.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
